Thursday, July 10, 2025

"A $500 billion wall of money will lift the stock market in the second half, says JPMorgan"

I'm not sure I would attribute NVDA's $4 Trillion market cap to retail collectively deciding "Say, if we all pool our money..."

On the other hand the inflows are large enough—at the margin, which is where price change happens—to lift the broader market.

From MarketWatch, July 10: 

‘Boycotting’ of U.S. equities by foreign buyers won’t last 

Retail investors have been a driving force for markets this year.

https://images.mktw.net/im-81343447?width=700&size=1.6666666666666667&pixel_ratio=1.5

Cumulative net buying by retail investors this year has surpassed previous records.

That cohort is going to keep driving the market higher, says our call of the day from JPMorgan, which predicts that retail investors will lead a $500 billion wall of money flowing into U.S. stocks in the latter half of this year, driving gains of up to 10%.

A team of strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimate $360 billion of retail equity fund buying is left to come this year from an expected $630 billion total. 

Those investors took profits in May and June after they heavily bought the dip in March and April.

In other words, the pause in retail buying this year has been about cashing in on gains following a V-shaped recovery for U.S. stocks, rather than a behavioral shift. “Instead, we believe that retail investors will resume their equity buying and start propagating the equity market from July onward,” they said.

As for other potential buyers, the strategists said hedge funds built up more bullish exposure after reducing risk earlier in the year, and are unlikely to buy much more. Equity funds using computerized or quantitative models to take positions in individual stocks, reduced some exposure in May and June and could increase that later in the year, said JPMorgan....

....MUCH MORE