Monday, July 21, 2025

Capital Markets: "Yen Jumps as Governing Coalition Loses Majority in Upper House"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar begins the new week with a softer bias, but it still needs to run the North American gauntlet, which has tended to be more constructive than other centers recently. As seemed likely, less than a year after losing its majority in the lower, the LDP and Komeito coalition lost its majority in the upper chamber yesterday. Japanese domestic markets were closed for a national holiday, but the yen strengthened om the news, even before the US 10-year yield extended its pullback for the fourth consecutive session. The greenback is mostly softer against the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies today. 

Except for Taiwan and Australia, most large equity markets rose in the Asia Pacific region. Europe's Stoxx 600 is little changed and US index futures are slightly firmer. Benchmark 10-year yields are softer. In Europe, yields are mostly 3-5 bp lower and the 10-year Treasury yield is off a little more than three basis points to about 4.38% to slip below last week's low. Gold is trading firmly but must resurface last week's high a little above $3377 to lift the tone. August WTI reversed lower after reaching after setting the week's high before the weekend almost $69. Follow-through selling today has seen it slip slightly through $66.90. The 200-day moving average is near $66.70....

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