"A new front: Iran is turning Algeria into an IRGC outpost and the West should be afraid - opinion"

Iran, Turkey and Russia all seem interested in establishing a presence in North Africa/the Maghreb while China has created an opportunity to acquire some real estate in Morocco, affording handy access to the Strait of Gibralter.

From the Jerusalem Post, February 23:

The IRGC, long the spearhead of Tehran’s expansionist ambitions and a state-within-a-state that thrives on destabilization, now finds in Algeria a new theater for its operations. 

Algeria’s deepening entanglement with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ought to send tremors through Western capitals, yet the response thus far has been one of strategic myopia.

The IRGC, long the spearhead of Tehran’s expansionist ambitions and a state-within-a-state that thrives on destabilization, now finds in Algeria a new theater for its operations.

This is not merely a matter of bilateral cooperation between Algiers and Tehran; it is the harbinger of a wider struggle that risks engulfing North Africa, destabilizing Europe’s doorstep, and shifting the geopolitical equilibrium of the Mediterranean in ways profoundly inimical to the interests of democracies.

For decades, Algeria has wrapped itself in the mantle of nonalignment, presenting itself as an unyielding champion of sovereignty and independence, a regional power beholden to none. But beneath this carefully maintained facade, its growing collusion with the IRGC is emblematic of a new and dangerous departure.

Intelligence reports, diplomatic briefings, and well-sourced analyses now converge on a singular reality: Algeria is poised to become Iran’s forward operating base in North Africa. Through it, Tehran seeks not only to exert ideological influence but to operationalize its wider vision of strategic dominance – one that threatens the security of Europe and beyond.

THE FIRST theater of this creeping entrenchment is, undoubtedly, the Sahel. A region already teetering on the edge due to jihadist insurgencies, criminal syndicates, and feeble state control, the Sahel provides fertile ground for Iranian proxies to embed themselves.

Algeria, long accused of tacitly supporting destabilizing actors when it suits its interests, now stands accused of allowing IRGC-linked networks to carve out a presence, training militants, channeling arms, and exporting Tehran’s doctrine of militant revolution.

How Iran is impacting the Polisario Front operations in Western Sahara
More worrying still, the IRGC’s fingerprints are increasingly visible in the Polisario Front’s operations in Western Sahara, an alarming echo of Iran’s well-worn strategy of leveraging non-state actors to expand its reach – whether Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen....

....MUCH MORE

The Russians want a Mediterranean naval base to replace the one they lost/will lose in Syria; I'm not sure what Turkey wants beyond Sultan Erdoğan's generalized dream of bringing back the Caliphate.

And the Chinese? They like the water. From the outro of September 2024's Meanwhile, In The Arctic: "Svalbard-research becomes more important for China, professor says": 

We've mentioned China's proclivity for establishing bases on international maritime chokepoints: the billion dollar bridge over the Panama Canal, the giant battery factories in Morocco - the eastern approaches to the Strait of Gibralter.

Also February 2024's "Red Sea Rivalries": 

The most amazing thing that has been pointed out over the last couple months is that China's base on Djibouti's Gulf of Aden coast, at the approaches to the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into the Red Sea, gives them the perfect location to monitor Houthi action and American reaction:

—China Officially Sets Up Its First Overseas Base in Djibouti, The Diplomat

Also the Suez Canal itself: ""China & Egypt Strengthen Belt And Road Collaborations Including The Suez Canal International Logistics Zone"
I'm beginning to see a pattern here.*

And April 2024 Why the U.S. and China Suddenly Care About a Port in Southern Chile": 

 

And all of a sudden (after years of development) China is hanging out at the entrance to some very strategic sea lanes. In fact, the only major chokepoint not seeing a Chinese development that comes to mind is the Strait of Malacca between Singapore/Malay Peninsula and Indonesia's Sumatra.

The Bering Strait between the Russian far east and Alaska and South Africa are on a gentle simmer and back to Svalbard, one look at the map shows the attraction. Also from the Barents Observer, this time in 2021:

Geopolitics: "Moscow aims to enhance presence in Svalbard as part of hybrid-strategy, expert warns"

....Military speaking, Svalbard is of great strategical importance, located between the Barents-, Greenland-, and Norwegian Seas. The one controlling Svalbard is also likely to control the important gateway from the shallow Barents Sea to the deeper North Atlantic.

For Russia’s Northern Fleet, the so-called Bear Island Gap between mainland Norway and the archipelago’s southernmost island is key to conducting sea denial operations in and over the maritime areas further south, potentially threatening NATO’s transatlantic sea lines of communication.

Finally, back to the Persians, Iran seems to be cheering-on the not-quite-dormant anti-French sentiment among the Algerians once again. 

From LeMonde February 23: 

"After Islamist knife attack in Mulhouse, French interior minister blames Algiers"

And from Turkey's Anadolu Agency, February 26:

‘Long series of threats and harassment’: Algeria condemns fresh French sanctions