From Christophe Barraud's about me page:
...Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities since 2011, I have been awarded by Bloomberg the title of Top Forecaster of the U.S. Economy (from 2012 to 2020 and in 2022, 2023), Eurozone Economy (from 2015 to 2019 and in 2022) and Chinese Economy (from 2017 to 2020). I also won the Forecaster of the Year contest organized by MarketWatch in 2020....
Also:
☆☆☆ Bloomberg Top Forecasters Q3 2024 | 1st place: U.S. | 1st place: China | 2nd place: Eurozone ☆☆☆
And from Business Insider, Nov 23, 2024:
The economist who predicted the election outcomes in detail tells BI his forecasts for 2025 GDP, inflation, and the threshold that would explode the deficit
- Christophe Barraud predicted a Republican sweep and spike in the 10-year yield.
- Barraud, a top US economy forecaster, expects GDP growth to exceed consensus forecasts.
- He also expects higher inflation and shares concerns over the deficit crossing 7.5% of GDP.
In the months leading up to the US election, betting markets were choppy, at one point leaning in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris over President-Elect Donald Trump. But as we got closer to voting day, things began to consolidate.
By October, there was enough data for Christophe Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, to confidently make a call, concluding that it would likely be a Republican sweep. And he nailed it.
His economic models also forecast that the result would cause a shock spike in the 10-year yield to at least 4.5%. On November 6, as results from the polls rapidly poured in, the yield hit an intraday peak of 4.75%. As of Friday, it was hovering near 4.4%.
Looking ahead, Barraud, who Bloomberg has ranked as the most accurate forecaster of the US economy every year except once since 2012, is making some slight adjustments to his 2025 projections for US GDP growth and inflation.
"Now that we have a clear result without a contested election, I'm pretty sure that many companies will adjust their CapEx, will invest more, and will also add more jobs," Barraud said. "Whoever was elected, the economy was supposed to accelerate. But with Trump, I think that there could be a kind of sentiment boost in the short term because a lot of consumers and companies are expecting tax cuts, which could be positive even before implementing them."
He previously said that US GDP growth in 2025 would be stronger than expected at 2.1%, above Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 1.9%. Post-elections, he anticipates a slight boost to that number and may revise it upward over the next few weeks to 2.2% or 2.3%. This follows the assumption that adverse weather conditions and election uncertainty temporarily damped growth. Near term, he will look for clues from wage growth, jobless claims, and company commentary on Christmas sales as confirmation.
Despite the Republican sweep, Trump will still face friction on his policies. Barraud expects a handful of Republican senators to push back on changes that could aggravate government debt. It means Trump will be forced to lower the bar on his promises to avoid shaving too much off government revenue. Otherwise, the budget and deficit would explode, Barraud noted.
For example, if Trump wants to make the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 permanent, the promised corporate tax-rate cut of 15% may need to look more like 17% or 18%, he noted.
Based on information pulled from the Congressional Budget Office, the Tax Foundation, and conversations Barraud is having with clients, including large banks and hedge funds, he has concluded that if the deficit exceeds the threshold of 7.5% to 8% of GDP annually, it would significantly impact long-duration US Treasuries. The fiscal budget gap for 2024 is 6.4%, up from 2023's deficit of 6.2%....
....MUCH MORE
