Saturday, December 21, 2024

"An Old Syria Hand’s Outlook: The Pieces Aren’t Coming Back Together"

Those lines on maps that the French and British drew over one-hundred years ago were a perversity and will continue to highlight the crazy effects of people who think they know what is right for the world.

The self-anointed, from the Davos crowd and U.N. back to the League of Nations and Sykes–Picot have caused far more death and destruction than any good they might have done.

From Barron's, December 20:

About the author: Theodore J. Singer retired in 2023 from the Central Intelligence Agency, where he served five times as a chief of station and head of Middle East operations. He currently advises private and public sector clients.


It was summer 1993 when we touched down, hot and tired, in Damascus, Syria. I didn’t bring much other than Arabic language skills, two cats, and youthful optimism. As a U.S. government journeyman, I was there to learn and report back. My net assessment at the time was that Syria was heading in the right direction.

I was wrong.

The recent news from Syria shows how. The brutal Assad dictatorship has been swept away after decades in power. No one will miss it. But it’s being replaced by new rulers of unknown brutality. The most prominent rebel leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, has a record of death and terrorism. But, so far, he has been relatively restrained. Early Western commentary is hopeful that he may have found conversion on his road to Damascus.

Maybe. But I don’t want to be wrong again. Today, I don’t hold out much hope for Syria.

To explain my pessimism—and my wider fears for Syria—let me go back to 1993. I remember telling my overworked and understaffed Embassy colleagues in Damascus about the trek in. It was a strange trip.

Syrian Air had elected to skip Tunis, where my wife and I were waiting for a flight. That was mysterious. Then, a late-night call alerted us that there might be a flight in the works, albeit inshallah bukra —tomorrow, hopefully. At the Tunis airport, we learned that the rickety old bird we’d be boarding didn’t have a pressurized hold. We bought two wicker baskets at the duty-free shop, stuffed a cat in each, and held them on our laps the whole flight.

When we landed in Syria, we were covered in cat scratches, fur, and other feline stuff. But ma’lash as they say—no big deal.

My new colleagues laughed at that one. Then, the work began. It never stopped.

Still, like I said, there were reasons for regional optimism in the 1990s. For one, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad had supported the U.S.-led operation Desert Storm to liberate Kuwait. He thought defeat for his archenemy—Iraq’s Saddam Hussain—would mean less U.S. pressure and more Gulf money for his own regime.

For another, there were bilateral niceties. In rapid succession, good things happened in the Middle East: The Oslo Accords promised peace; tension between Syria and Turkey lessened; and there were meaningful diplomatic efforts between Syria and Israel.

In 1994, the line of succession changed in what seemed a promising way. Basil al-Assad, the “hero” and Hafez al-Assad’s eldest son, died in a car wreck. He was replaced as heir apparent by the “eye doctor,” Bashar, al-Assad (the seemingly) Westernized son.

Finally, also that year, there was the first (and alas last) U.S. presidential visit in 20 years by President Clinton. Things were looking up.

Watching TV today, I see places in Syria I know so well. I doubt I’ll ever visit them again.

On rare breaks from work, my wife and I relied on hand-drawn maps to get around the country. They were the handiwork of a former Australian ambassador and adventurer. His ink guided us to ancient towns, forgotten cultures, and amazing people. We walked through the fortress of Aleppo, climbed ruins in Palmyra, and searched for the best shawarmas. Syria’s detente with the U.S. meant slightly less intrusive treatment of U.S. diplomats. But the regime still proscribed travel to certain parts of the country. We knew that these were Kurdish areas and military zones. There, the regime tested WMDs or housed its Soviet and North Korean weaponry.

Needless to say, we avoided those particular holiday spots....

....MUCH MORE