Monday, December 2, 2024

Norges Bank On The Future Role Of The Trader In The Age Of AI

From The Trade, November 28:

The future role of the trader as product owner
The TRADE sits down with Alan Martin Lucero, lead FX trader at Norges Bank Investment Management, to explore the future role of traders on the desk and how they’re expanding their market knowledge to become a jack of all trades across the trading lifecycle.

What do you believe the trader of the future looks like skills wise?

We need to take a step back and look at today’s trading desk. By dissecting a trading desk into its functions, processes, and tasks, it becomes clear that 80% or more can be successfully automated with today’s technology – and that figure is just for the front-office, potentially even higher in the middle- and back-office. We first need to envision how the job will evolve in the coming years. I envision the trader’s role converging into a multifaceted position where responsibilities traditionally spanning from the front- to the back-office will be seamlessly integrated and executed with the aid of technology.

These technological advancements will profoundly impact our industry and give rise to a new kind of role: the “domain jack of all trades.” In other words, traders will likely become more akin to product owners. Being a market expert and knowing all the ins and outs of trading will no longer be sufficient. Instead, we will need to be familiar with all aspects of the business, from legal and settlement processes to transaction cost analysis and trading. This implies that fewer people will be needed to run a trading desk end-to-end, with more operations running as a one-man show, relying on the interaction of a human and a multitude of specialist systems or AIs. 

So, what are the skills of a domain jack of all trades? 

By definition, many, but the key ones I believe will be relevant are: 

Project Management Skills: The ability to manage multiple tasks, prioritise efficiently, and oversee the implementation and maintenance of automated trading workflows.

Adaptability and Curiosity: Flexibility to adapt to new market and regulatory conditions. A continuous drive to learn about every single corner of the business and market. This adaptability will be essential in an environment where change is constant and rapid.

Technical Skills: While traders may not need to program large-scale applications, the ability to retrieve and analyse data will remain vital. Skills in basic programming or systems knowledge will be necessary for tasks such as manual overrides, improvements, and customisations. Understanding technology will be crucial for validating automated workflows.

Soft Skills: Strong communication skills to convey complex information to diverse stakeholders. Problem-solving and creativity to navigate and innovate within complex systems. A holistic business understanding to see the broader picture and integrate various aspects of the business effectively. This is, and will likely continue to be, a people business, requiring strong interpersonal skills to manage relationships and collaborate effectively.

The interesting aspect of this vision is that no single degree can prepare you for this. It is unrealistic to expect a trader to be formally trained in finance, software engineering, and law to do the job. Therefore, either education will need to become significantly more industry-focused, or firms will have to identify and develop new talents to become the domain jack of all trades.

The trader of the future will be a multifaceted professional, adept at integrating technology, traditional market expertise, and a broad understanding of the operational aspects of the business. This evolution will streamline trading operations, creating more efficient and dynamic trading desks powered by human-AI collaboration....

....MUCH MORE

As noted in a post on trading the weather:

....The QBO is just one of the factors that influence the jet stream pattern and because we are dealing with a complex chaotic system, long range jet stream forecasts can be tricky.

Things get really tricky when you superimpose another complex-chaotic system, markets—with their Keynesian beauty contests and Brownian-type movement-morphing into murmuration-like crowd behavior—on top of the weather/climate stuff: