Tuesday, December 3, 2024

Capital Markets: "US-China Exchange Export Restrictions, Yuan is Sold to New Lows for the Year, while the Greenback Extends Waller's Inspired Losses "

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar has extended the losses scored late yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated he was still leaning toward a December rate cut. The odds of a rate cut rose to around 76% from about 66% at the end of last week. The odds are slightly lower today, around 72%. A solid jobs report on Friday and another uptick in CPI may change some minds. The only G10 currency that is weaker today is the Japanese yen, and it is off about 0.25%. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Asia Pacific currencies are mostly lower, and the central European currencies are mostly higher. Of note, tit-for-tat exports controls between the US chips and fabrication equipment and Beijing's export ban to the US of some critical minerals and metals. The yuan was sold to a new low for the year today.

 Asia Pacific and European equities are advancing today. Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwanese indices gained more than 1%. The Stoxx 600 in Europe is up for the fourth consecutive session, matching its longest advance since May. US index futures are little changed. European bonds yields are firmer, but the French premium over Germany is a few basis points narrower today, despite the tension, and France's CAC 40 is outperforming Germany as well today. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up almost three basis points to 4.22%. The two-year yield is flat near 4.18%. Gold is firm and is trading in the upper end of yesterday's range. It is holding below $2650. January WTI appears to be forging a base near $68. It has not settled above $70 since November 22.... 
....Europe
There are two main drags on the euro: politics and economics....

....MUCH MORE

Other than that...