Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Capital Markets: "Patient BOJ Weighs on the Yen, Hong Kong Re-Opens with a Bang, Middle East War Underpins Crude, while the Dollar Consolidates"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview:  The US dollar is mostly little changed today. Comments from the new Japanese government and BOJ Governor Ueda reinforce the sense driven by the softness in the September Tokyo CPI and larger-than-expected decline in August industrial output that there is no urgency for another rate hike. The yen is the weakest of the G10 currencies today. The Norwegian krone leads the major currencies higher after underperforming yesterday. Outside of the yen and krone, the other G10 currencies are l +/- ~0.15% and inside yesterday's ranges. Emerging market currencies are mostly softer. The Mexican peso is firm after the new president had comforting words for investors at her inauguration yesterday.

While US auto sales were stronger than expected (15.77 mln unit pace), the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker fell to 2.5% yesterday from 3.1%, following the weaker construction spending and manufacturing ISM. Still, the threat of a further escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict keeps risk appetites in check. Asia Pacific equities tumbled but Hong Kong re-opened and both the Hang Seng and mainland stocks that trade continued their surge with 6-7% gains today. After losing about 1.4% over the past two sessions, Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly firmer, while US index futures are trading with a heavier bias. Bonds are under pressure in Europe, and yields are jumping by 5-7 bp, reversing yesterday's decline. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up three basis points to 3.76%. Gold is softer but consolidating around $2650. Oil remains firm and November WTI is pushing near $72 a barrel. The late September high was near $72.40.   

Asia Pacific
Japan's new prime minister Ishida has packed his cabinet with several former cabinet members and experienced LDP hands suggests a traditional course is likely....

....MUCH MORE