Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Capital Markets: "CSI 300 Drops 7%, Oil Steadies, and the US Dollar Remains Firm"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: We suspect the market overreacted to the US jobs data, which was tainted by the lowest "establishment" response in over two decades and seasonal adjustments were likely thrown off by Hurricane Helene and the 33k strike at Boeing. We think Fed officials, and more speak today, have confirmed that it was not the game changer than many market participants think, which was likely influenced by positioning. It did help facilitate the dollar's upside correction we had been looking for. The greenback is firm today. Sterling made a marginal new low, while the euro retested $1.0950. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 50 bp cut took the New Zealand dollar down nearly 1%, though it was well anticipated. Only the Swiss franc is holding its own today among the G10 currencies. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Central European currencies are the heaviest, while a few Asia Pacific currencies and the Mexican peso are posting small gains.

Mainland Chinese shares fell hard today, with the CSI 300 dropping a little more than 7%. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an will hold a briefing on Saturday to ostensibly introduce moves to strengthen fiscal policy. Mainland shares that trade in HK fell by about 1.6%. Most of the large markets in the region, except for China and South Korea, traded higher. There are some reports that North Korea may send troops to help Russia in Ukraine. Europe's Stoxx 600 is firm, while US index futures are trading with a heavier bias. European 10-year yields are mostly 1-2 bp softer. The 10-year US Treasury yield is firm, near 4.02%. Gold is consolidating yesterday's losses, spending most of the session so far below yesterday's settlement near $2622. November WTI is trading quietly today (~$73.55-$74.45) after yesterday's large swing (~$78.45-$72.70, settling near $73.55).

Asia Pacific...

....MUCH MORE