Thursday, August 1, 2024

"China’s Robotaxi Dreams Spark Economic Anxiety Over AI’s Threat"

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, July 31:

On a recent summer night in central China, a couple on a motorcycle swerved in front of a driverless cab, forcing the vehicle to brake rapidly. At an intersection, it hesitantly performed a three-point turn, careful to avoid a man with a bike gawking at the new technology from the roadside.

Welcome to Wuhan, the city of 14 million people that’s shaking off its Covid-19 stigma to position itself at the vanguard of smart-car technology — and the difficult questions it raises about the impact artificial intelligence could have on jobs in China and around the world.

More than 500 electric robotaxis built by Baidu Inc. currently ply the city’s streets, with plans for an additional 1,000 to be deployed by year-end. The expansion positions Baidu and other Chinese firms as competitors with Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo and out in front of Tesla Inc., which has delayed its highly anticipated unveiling of robotaxi prototypes by about two months to October.

Moving fast to develop driverless taxis fits into President Xi Jinping’s playbook to bolster the economy by making high-tech industries the centerpiece of China’s economic future, transitioning away from a dependence on property and lower-value exports. The nation is already home to the world’s two biggest electric-vehicle battery manufacturers and dominates the EV supply chain, a result of state subsidies and cutthroat competition that’s made constant innovation a must.

Yet, as Wuhan is discovering, running ahead of the curve can also have its drawbacks.

Already, residents are complaining that Baidu’s robotaxis, deployed under the Apollo Go brand in English, are causing traffic jams, partly because they’re seen as driving too cautiously. Riffing off a phrase that sounds similar to the taxi’s name in Chinese, Wuhan residents have christened the cabs “silly radishes” because they move at slower speeds and don’t always respond to situations on the road the same way a human would.

And even though Wuhan’s robotaxi fleet represents just a fraction of the total cab population — which employs an estimated 24,000 drivers, according to Shanghai-based outlet The Paper — there’s growing anxiety over the economic implications of the city embracing driverless technology. That’s especially true in the ride-hailing industry, where some drivers are already reluctant gig workers who lost their jobs in other sectors.

“The government needs to balance jobs and tech,” said one Wuhan resident, who asked that he be identified by his family name, Wang. “It shouldn’t only focus on wanting Wuhan to be a technologically developed city but also take care of the people who are still drivers.”

Economists echo those concerns.

“It is exciting to witness robotaxis become reality, yet it’s not clear how taxi drivers will face the challenge, and how the government will strike a balance between technological breakthroughs and weak labor market conditions,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, wrote in a recent note.

Baidu is encouraging people to try its service by heavily discounting fares. A recent 30-minute daytime journey covering almost 10 kilometers (6 miles) cost about 14 yuan ($1.93) after a company discount of almost 26 yuan. That’s roughly one-third the cost of a comparable ride in a premium-class, human-driven taxi with the ride-hailing service Didi.

That pricing gap has frustrated some taxi companies, who say the experiment already has gone too far....

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This Wuhan, I have heard of it. 

And Baidu as well:

December 2017:  Interview With CEO Robin Li on Baidu's (and China's) Goal Of Ruling Artificial Intelligence

May 2024: "Baidu Launches New $28,000 Robotaxi In Wuhan"

Although we had two posts on the subject I may not have emphasized enough how big an opportunity Elon Musk's deals with Baidu actually are. First, some background:

China has a communist government, they pick winners and losers in business, that's what communists do....

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