Monday, August 5, 2024

Capital Markets: "Risks to Financial Stability Fan Speculation of Emergency Rate Cuts"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The Black Monday talked about over the weekend has materialized. Japanese equity indices more than 12% today. The Nikkei is off around 26.5% form the high set on July 11. Taiwan and South Korean equities were tagged for more than 8% in a sea of red that spared no one. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off 2.4%, nearly matching its pre-weekend loss. It is back at levels last seen in February. The S&P 500 futures are off almost 3% and the Nasdaq futures are down about 4.5%. Haven flows into fixed income saw the 10-year JGB yield tumbled nearly 16 bp to 0.77%. European benchmark 10-year yields are down mostly 2-4 bp, with the 10-year German Bund yield off more than five basis points. The 10-year US Treasury yield is off 5 bp near 3.74% and the two-year yield is down 11 bp to almost 3.76%. Market talk is of an emergency cut by the Federal Reserve. Ahead of the weekend, there was heighted speculation of a 50 bp cut in September.

The yen's surge is the main feature of the foreign exchange market. It is up about 3.25% on the day with the dollar slightly above JPY142. The unwinding of carry trades has also underpinned the Swiss franc, which is more than 1% stronger today. The other side of the carry trade, such as the Australian dollar, has been hit. The Aussie is off nearly 1%. The euro rose to $1.0975, a little shy of the year's high and is hovering above $1.0950. Sterling is chopping between roughly $1.2710 and $1.2815. The Canadian dollar is flattish. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, a favorite of carry-trade strategies is off nearly 3% followed by the South African range's 1.65% loss. Most emerging market currencies, including the Chinese yuan are firmer. Gold is trading heavier inside the pre-weekend range. September WTI extended its pre-weekend losses and is trading below $72 for the first time since February.

Asia Pacific
With today's losses, the dollar has fallen by about 12.5% against the yen since the July 10 high (a day before the US June CPI)....
Europe....

....MUCH MORE

Three months of the Yen and the Swiss Franc futures via FinViz (also on blogroll at right):

JPY Chart DailyCHF Chart Daily