From the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization, February 2:
World Food Situation
FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
Larger coarse grain outputs push up supply and trade prospects
FAO’s forecast for world cereal production in 2023 has been revised upward by 13.2 million tonnes (0.5 percent) this month and is set to reach a record high of 2 836 million tonnes. This represents a 1.2 percent (33.3 million tonnes) increase from the 2022 level. The revision is primarily the result of better-than-previously envisaged maize outputs in several key producing countries, while more modest upward revisions were made to the global barley and wheat production forecasts. The global coarse grain output is pegged at an all-time high of 1 523 million tonnes, following a 12-million-tonne upward adjustment this month. The bulk of the revision reflects new official data from Canada, China (mainland), Türkiye and the United States of America, where a combination of higher yields and larger harvested areas than previously expected has led to higher maize production estimates. The global barley output has also been raised, with changes mostly concentrated in Canada and the Russian Federation, while the world wheat production has been lifted by 1.4 million tonnes and now stands at 788.5 million tonnes in 2023, albeit still 2.2 percent lower year on year. The improved production outlook this month is mainly driven by Canada’s wheat yield and harvested area surpassing earlier estimates, more than compensating for a reduction in Brazil’s wheat forecast due to the effects of heat waves and excessive rainfall. As for rice, the production estimate for China (mainland) has been lowered since December, as official assessments indicate that planting cuts in important northeastern producing provinces were more pronounced than previously anticipated by FAO. Nevertheless, this revision is largely compensated by production upgrades for a host of other countries, particularly Nepal, where a record harvest is reported to have been attained despite weather vagaries, and Mali and Guinea, owing to pronounced area expansions. As a result, FAO’s forecast of world rice production in 2023/24 now stands at 524.6 million tonnes (milled basis), marginally lower than the December forecast but still 0.6 percent above the 2022/23 outcome.
Looking ahead to 2024, global winter wheat sowings are expected to contract moderately year on year due to softer international prices. In the United States of America, lower prices have led to a 6-percent drop in winter wheat plantings. However, early drought conditions are impacting a significantly smaller area of the winter wheat crop than in 2023 and may lead to a lower abandonment rate than in the previous year. In the European Union, delays in sowings caused by heavy rains have contributed to a small cutback in the winter wheat area. A cold spell in the Baltic Sea region during December caused some frost damage, while rainfall deficits have continued in southern Spain and parts of Italy. In Ukraine, the impacts of the war have kept output prices low and input costs high, reducing profitability and liquidity, which could lead to a further decline in wheat plantings in 2024. In the Russian Federation, although most winter wheat crops are reportedly in good condition, abnormally warm weather in key wheat-producing southern districts followed by a precipitous drop in temperatures without sufficient snow cover may have caused localised frost damage. In India, favourable weather and remunerative prices are seen spurring an increase in the wheat area in 2024. Similarly, near-record high domestic prices in Pakistan have driven an uptick in wheat plantings, and with adequate availability of irrigation water supplies, the 2024 wheat production outlook is mostly favourable. In China (mainland), the area planted to wheat is estimated to be above the past five-year average, underpinned by strong domestic demand and an increase in the minimum purchase price....
....MUCH MORE
We usually visit the FAO for the monthly Food Price Index, the most recent was also released on February 2.
