Where Wars Might Break Out In 2024

Chicago.

My money is on Chicago if the Democrat National Convention is anything like the one in 1968.*

Or like 1860 for that matter.

From Foreign Policy, January 2:

8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2024
These are the international disputes that are currently flying under the radar but could emerge as major flash points in the coming year.

Earlier this week, Foreign Policy featured 10 conflicts to watch in 2024. Here, we are focusing on those international disputes that have been flying under the radar but could emerge as full-blown conflicts in the next year.

This list is not intended to be predictive; rather, it is a warning from FP’s columnists and contributors that there are a number of flash points—from Abkhazia to Essequibo—that deserve more attention than they have received from observers of international conflict and geopolitical risk.—Sasha Polakow-Suransky, deputy editor

.... Subsea Sabotage Off Ireland’s Coast
By Elisabeth Braw, columnist at Foreign Policy and senior associate fellow at the European Leadership Network

Few parts of the world host as many undersea cables as the waters off the southern coast of Ireland. Should a hostile state want to wreak havoc on countries connected to the globalized economy via these networks, it could send a few vessels into Irish waters to sabotage the cables. Because Ireland only has a minuscule navy, doing so would be an easy task.

The vast majority of the undersea cables connecting Europe with the United States’ east coast travel via the Celtic Sea, the part of the Atlantic Ocean located south of Ireland. That’s a logical arrangement since the Celtic Sea provides the most efficient route to the rest of the Atlantic.

But in May this year, a group of Russian navy vessels, including the Admiral Grigorovich, which has participated in the war against Ukraine, appeared in Ireland’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and remained there. And in January 2022, Russia declared it was going to hold a naval exercise in Ireland’s EEZ. The Irish government tried to prevent the exercise from taking place, without success—but Irish fishermen managed to thwart the Russians by refusing to leave the waters.

Pay attention to any new Russian vessels in Irish waters. Though governments have the right to intervene against foreign vessels in their EEZ—and especially in their territorial waters, to protect sensitive installations—Ireland is hardly in a position to do so: The Irish Naval Service’s fleet encompasses a total of six vessels, all of them patrol ships and thus not equipped to scare away the Admiral Grigorovich or other unwanted Russian visitors.

That raises the question: If Russia decided to sabotage the world’s communications infrastructure in the Celtic Sea, would NATO intervene on behalf of Ireland, which is not a member of the organization?

....MUCH MORE

*Mayor Daley had the best line of the convention. Referring to the clash between the rioters and the cops, he said:

"The policeman isn't there to create disorder.
The policeman is there to preserve disorder."

The Mayor was a regular Mr. Malaprop. On another occasion he was supposed to say:

"We shall reach greater and greater plateaus of achievement."

It came out as:

"We shall reach greater and greater platitudes of achievement."

Prompting his press secretary to tell the reporters:
"Don't print what he said, Print what he meant."