Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Capital Markets: "Greenback Surges as Rates Back Up"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar is bid across the board and posting its best session of the month. It is up between about 0.5% (Canadian dollar) to almost 1.0% (Australian dollar) among the G10 currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, only the Russian ruble is holding its own. Approaching CNY7.20, the greenback is near two-month highs against the yuan. The dollar has been bolstered by rising US rates. The US two-year yield is up six basis points to near 4.20%, having bottomed at the end of last week around 4.11%. The US 10-year yield is up about the same amount to poke above 4.0%. European yields are as much as two basis points lower.

Equities are broadly lower. Only China's CSI managed to rise today (~0.6%) in Asia Pacific among the large bourses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive session and for the fifth time in the past six sessions. It is making new lows for the month. US index futures are 0.5%-0.75% lower. A rising dollar and firmer rates are pushing gold lower. It is near $2040 after trading above $2060 at the end of last week. February WTI is rising for the third consecutive session. It is up about 0.5% today and pushing above $73 a barrel.

Asia Pacific
Defying expectations, the PBOC did not cut the one -year Medium-Term Funding facility yesterday but did provide a net injection of funds (CNY216 bln or ~$30 bln).
Last month, the PBOC had provided policy banks with CNY350 bln of loans at a rate 10 bp below that MLF, which is understood as the floor. The lack of a cut yesterday is confusing, though it keeps the focus on quantities rather than prices....

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