Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Capital Markets: "Don't be Burned in the Churn"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: The broad consolidation in the dollar after the gyrations at the end of last week continues, and within it the greenback is a bit softer today. Among the G10 currencies, only the yen is failing to post gains. Most emerging market currencies, led by central Europe, are also firmer today. A notable exception is a handful of Asian currencies, include the South Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, and the Philippine peso. The market's focus is on tomorrow's US CPI. Meanwhile, the US 10-year yield is lower for the third consecutive session and is below the 4% threshold ahead of today's Treasury auction. European benchmark 10-year yields are also 2-4 bp lower. Despite a weak reception to its 10-year bond sales, the disappointing wage growth in Japan helped restrain yields and the 10-year JGB yield slipped slightly to almost 0.57%.

Japanese stocks, on the other hand, extended their rally. The 2% advance lifted the Nikkei to new highs since the early 1990s. Most of the other large bourses in the region fell. Europe's Stoxx 600 is steady after slipping by 0.2% yesterday. US index futures are trading with a slightly firmer bias. Several large banks kick off the earnings season at the end of the week. Gold is trading quietly mostly between $2025 and $2040 today, well within the recent range. February WTI is in a narrow range of a little more than a dollar below $72.75. API estimated that private crude inventories fell by about 5.2 mln barrels, which is a much larger drop that expected from the government's calculation due later today....

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