I'm almost reluctant to post this because there is an awful lot of trading between today and the time frame this article is proposing. As a old trader once told me: "At some point when you are early, you aren't early, you're wrong."
From the metals junkies at Kitco, December 4 (also on blogroll at right):
In 2025 primary copper supply will "start to fall off a cliff," but the copper price isn't high enough yet to incentivize new mine builds, says Nicole Adshead-Bell, chair of Hot Chili (TSXV:HCH).
In mid-November Adshead-Bell spoke at the 2023 Precious Metals Summit Zurich event.
"Six to $8 [a pound] for me is the price where you see corporations willing to take the risk to start investing in copper projects… Glencore's CEO Gary Nagle earlier this year said we will not bring on new supply until the market is screaming for it, and the market will be screaming for it when the copper price is materially higher."
Adshead-Bell was asked why the capital costs to bring on new copper projects is so high, with Kitco's Paul Harris giving the recent example of Teck Resources adding $600 million to its budget for Quebrada Blanca Phase 2 project in Chile. She said two reasons are the high capex bill of large copper projects, and inflation. A third reason is mistakes at the executive level.
"Companies need to have post-mortems: ‘How did we get to have material blowout? Why didn't we figure this was happening? Why didn't we put mechanisms in place to try and control that earlier on?'," she said.
Adshead-Bell's Hot Chili is advancing its Costa Fuego copper project in northern Chile. The company completed a preliminary economic assessment earlier this year, and the stock price reached a one-year high of $1.40 in July....
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