Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Capital Markets: "Softer Tokyo CPI Buys BOJ Time while Moody's Cuts the Outlook for China's Debt following Fiscal Stimulus and the Continued Property Slump"

From Marc to Market:

Overview: Outside of the Australian dollar, which has fallen by around 0.6% following the RBA meeting and the softer final PMI, which may have dragged the New Zealand dollar a lower by around 0.25%, the other G10 currencies trading little changed ahead of the start of the North American session. The eurozone and UK final PMIs were revised higher. Central European currencies lead the emerging market currencies. China reported better than expected Caixin PMI and Moody's cut China's sovereign outlook to negative from stable. The yuan is little changed.

Gold is quieter after yesterday's wild day that saw $115 range (~$2020-$2135). It is in around a $18 dollar range today centered near $2032. January WTI is largely steady. It has fallen by about 6.2% in the past three sessions. Among the equity markets in the Asia Pacific regions, only India is posting gains. Europe is treading water and US index futures are trading softer. Benchmark 10-year yields have fallen 3-4 bp in Asia (except in China, where the 10-year yield slipped about a quarter of a basis point) and mostly 4-6 bp lower in Europe. The US 10-year Treasury yield is off a basis point near 4.25%, while the two-year yield is slightly lower near 4.63%....

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