From Mar to Market:
Overview: Weekend accounts seemed to try to understand what Fed Chair Powell said by beginning with the large drop in US rates. Yet, most accounts miss the fact that no matter what Powell has said, the market has more often than not reacted as if he were a dove. Rates have come back firmer today, perhaps as some recognized the overshoot. The US two-year yield is up nearly seven basis points after falling 14 before the weekend. The 10-year yield is almost six basis points higher around 4.25%. The dollar's losses were initially extended but it has recovered. Ahead of the start of the North American session, the greenback is firmer against all the G10 currencies, except the Japanese yen. Most of the freely accessible emerging market currencies, are also softer. Gold has been on a wild ride. It shot up to a little more than $2135 before reversing lower and is now near $2065.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has rallied for the past three weeks but struggled to start the new week. South Korea, Australia, and India were notable exceptions. India's stocks were encouraged by Prime Minister Modi's party's (BJP) success in the weekend state elections. The 2% gain is the largest of the year. After rallying the past three days, Europe's Stoxx 600 is treading water: little changed in a narrow range. US index futures trading with a softer bias. The market is judging that OPEC+ voluntary cuts may not materialize so much, and demand may weaken. After peaking near $80 last Thursday, January WTI is slipped below $73 a barrel earlier today but is returned to near $74. Resistance is now seen near $75....
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