From Nikkei, October 17:
Bumper crop staves off supply fears but feeds concerns about overreliance
Global wheat prices have sunk to their lowest level in about three years as Russia pushes exports of a bumper crop, easing food inflation while driving up concerns about an overreliance on Russian grain.
Benchmark wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are hovering in the high $5 range per bushel. In late September, the price touched the low $5 range, the lowest since September 2020.
The current market price is nearly 60% lower than the $13 reached in March 2022, just after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russian wheat is taking the place of falling exports from Ukraine and an expected weak harvest in Australia.
"Prices skyrocketed immediately after the invasion as traders factored in supply disruption risks to the maximum degree possible," said a wheat specialist at a major Japanese trading company. "The market is now moving towards normalization."
But supply risks have not disappeared altogether.
In July, Russia withdrew from a United Nations-brokered deal to let grain shipments move through the Black Sea. The Ukrainian government said on Friday that around 300,000 tonnes of grain had been lost since July owing to Russian attacks on ports and ships on the Black Sea coast....
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