Tuesday, October 3, 2023

China: "Divining Xi’s behavior: It’s all about power"

If this analysis is correct, and it seems to have a lot going for it, it would behoove Paramount Leader Xi Jinping to stop pressing on the most contentious fronts, the South China Sea, the chip war, the water wars on countries downstream, in particular the Mekong, and a half-dozen other areas that the Chinese Communist Party seems to have decided are within the Divine right of kings.

Don't press when you are weak, it often leads to further weakness.

From Asia Times:

Disappearing officials could be Xi’s version of ‘draining the swamp’ but could also signal he’s gearing up for a showdown with the US 

In China, espionage laws are being tightened and senior officials are “disappearing” — most recently the defense minister. Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is throwing its weight around in the region.

Here’s the thing to remember when considering Communist China: It’s all about power and control for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and especially for whoever is at the top. Xi Jinping also has to control the CCP and that’s still a work in progress. It always is.

Regarding the “disappearing officials” and the defense minister, in particular, one hopes the CIA and the rest of the US intelligence community with their US$80 billion budget know the answer and aren’t just speculating like the rest of us.

But here’s how I see it.

There probably isn’t a single Chinese official at these levels who isn’t guilty of corruption. And even if there are a few “clean” ones, as Soviet secret police chief Lavrentiy Beria said, “Show me the man and I’ll show you the crime.”

So it is unlikely that the minister got caught because of “corruption,” unlikely that Xi is just cleaning out a corrupt official or three. “Corruption” seems to be the modern version of the Maoist era’s “counter-revolutionary activities.” It’s the go-to, catch-all charge for getting rid of people and making it look like they were guilty of something.

So why is Xi doing it?....

....MUCH MORE

Very related from a few years ago:
"Why China prefers to maintain inflamed borders"

ICYMI: "China Is Building Entire Villages in Another Country’s Territory"
Going for a bit o'that lebensraum, eh Herr Xi?

"China Is Weaponizing Water"

For quite a while I kept waiting for him to pull a Hitler line out of his pocket:

'This is my last territorial demand in Europe'*
 —Adolf Hitler 
speech in Sportpalast Berlin, September 26, 1938
 
But Xi would say "My last territorial demand in Asia"
I think.

*Adolf Hitler im Berliner Sportpalast, 26.09.1938

....And now we face the last great problem that must be resolved and that will be resolved! It is the last territorial demand I shall make in Europe. It is a demand which I shall insist upon and a demand which I will satisfy so God will! A short history of this problem: Waving the banner of the right to selfdetermination of the peoples, Central Europe was torn apart in 1918 as certain crazed statesmen set to redraw the political landscape. Atomized and divided, new states were arbitrarily created in Central Europe in complete disregard of the origins of their peoples, their national desires, and of economic necessities....