Saturday, September 9, 2023

"China’s bazooka stimulus days are done and gone" Pt. II

Coincidentally (I think) both Bloomberg and Asia Times posted on the topic. We linked to the former in September 5's "Why China Is Avoiding Using ‘Bazooka’ to Spur Economy" and here is the latter via MENA FN, September 6:

A great deal is riding on Li Qiang's visit to Jakarta this week, the new Chinese premier's first official stop in Southeast Asia.

For all the disappointment that Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden won't be at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit, Li is the one from which ASEAN leaders most want to hear.

In March, Xi entrusted Li to revive flagging mainland growth and restart big-picture reform efforts.

How Li characterizes Beijing's plans for the world's second-biggest economy means more for developing Asia than the West, given the ASEAN region's extreme vulnerability to weakening Chinese growth. That's especially true as China resists firing its stimulus “bazooka” during this latest downturn.

Since January, ASEAN has found itself grappling with two big misconceptions about China's 2023. One, that the end of Covid-19 lockdowns would generate explosive growth and lift global demand. Two, that China would ramp up stimulus quickly and with overwhelming force amid signs the economy was struggling instead.

China's slide toward deflation confounded the first assumption. Beijing's surprisingly laid-back approach to cratering growth also caught developing Asia by surprise.

Li's biggest challenge in Jakarta is reassuring ASEAN leaders that (a) rumors of a Chinese financial crisis are greatly exaggerated and (b) the region's prospects have more to gain from allying with China than Biden's America .

That's become a bigger challenge as Beijing holds its fire on stimulus, dimming hopes the economy might hit its 5% economic growth target. Nor did the moves of recent days reassure ASEAN that China might fire its bazooka.

On September 1, for example, China moved to support its shaky property sector by cutting minimum down payments for mortgages to 20% for first-time buyers and 30% for second-time buyers nationwide....

....MORE