Wednesday, September 4, 2019

"North Sea Oil Poised for Last Hurrah With Giant Norway Field"

Two takes on the Johan Sverdrup field.

First up, Bloomberg via gCaptain with the headline story, September 4:
The rise of a huge new Norwegian oil field is poised to give North Sea output one of its biggest boosts in years. The surge won’t last.

Johan Sverdrup, one of the five largest offshore oil fields ever discovered in Norway, has been given the green light to begin production, with operator Equinor ASA scheduled to start loading crude onto tankers as soon as next month. The field will single-handedly deliver the biggest increase in oil production for Norway next year since the 1980s. While that’s good news for its owners and Norway, the North Sea will still have to grapple with declines in supply from more mature fields that have been operating since the 1970s.

The problem for North Sea producers is that there’s just no other project under development that comes close to Sverdrup in scale. The next biggest field due to start by the end of 2020 is Martin Linge, according to Energy Aspects Ltd. Also part of Equinor’s pipeline, it pales in comparison.

“With the inclusion of Sverdrup, we see an increase in production in the near term,” said Sonya Boodoo, an analyst at Rystad Energy. “Without Sverdrup, production would have stagnated.”
The scale of Johan Sverdrup is also evident in reserves. While Edinburgh-based Wood Mackenzie Ltd. forecasts a massive increase in reserves being brought into production this year, that’s mostly down to Sverdrup: it accounts for just over 60% of 4.2 billion barrels this year.....MORE
And also at gCaptain, September 5:
Norway Approves Johan Sverdrup Start-Up
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate has granted its approval for the start-up of the Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea.

With expected recoverable resources of between 2.1 and 3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the Johan Sverdrup field development is one of the five biggest oil fields on the Norwegian continental shelf and one of the most important industrial projects underway in Norway.

Johan Sverdrup field operator Equinor is planning to start production of Phase 1 sometime this fall with daily production capacity of 440,000 barrels per day...MORE
The Bloomberg piece has a pic of Allseas' Pioneering Spirit doing its thing, which we posted on back in March:
Shipping: Allseas Pioneering Spirit Sets New Offshore Lifting Record at Johan Sverdrup 

In January we linked to an OilPrice article, "Norway’s Oil Production To Fall To 30-Year Low" which noted:
....As bad as it sounds, this year’s expected low production is not the worst news for the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) going forward.

Oil production is expected to jump in 2020 through 2023, thanks to the start up in late 2019 of Johan Sverdrup—the North Sea giant, as operator Equinor calls it. With expected resources of 2.1 billion—3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, Johan Sverdrup is one of the largest discoveries on the NCS ever made. It will be one of the most important industrial projects in Norway in the next 50 years, and at its peak, the project's production will account for 25 percent of Norway’s total oil production, Equinor says.

The worst news for Norway’s oil production, as things stand now, is that after Johan Sverdrup and after Johan Castberg in the Barents Sea scheduled for first oil in 2022, Norway doesn’t have major oil discoveries and projects to sustain its oil production after the middle of the 2020s....
I'm guessing when Equinor wrings the last drops from current reserves is when the The Government Pension Fund will start making real noise about divesting oil and gas from the portfolio.

The big hoopla around the March announcement:
And Speaking of Black Goo: "Norway’s $1tn wealth fund set to cut oil and gas stocks"

turned out to be more PR than anything:
"Norway's Trillion Dollar Fund Isn't Ditching Oil After All"