Regarding the headline, we aren't doing anything with the fertilizer or other agricultural inputs until there is a decisive turn at the base of the pyramid - the actual prices of crops and the cash flows they create.
Until that turn, we'll speculate on ag futures as opportunities pop up but unless we see something along the lines of the El Niño-caused crop failures of the 1870's - 1890's and famines created/exacerbated by corrupt/venal/incompetent politicians and administrators, we're not doing much in the input stuff or implement manufacturers. If we get some robotics/automation trades we'll post.
Alternatively, we keep tabs on reports of ergot outbreaks in Europe should there be hints of the cool-and-damp style famines that quasi-periodically showed up 1315 - 1818. Or potato blight.
So, with that cheery little break, here's Market Realist, Aug 28:
DAP prices
DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have moved unfavorably for producers (XLB) such as Mosaic (MOS), Agrium (AGU), PotashCorp (POT), and Israel Chemicals (ICL) in recent months. Last week, which ended on August 25, 2017, was a continuation of the lackluster momentum for DAP prices. Let’s dig a bit deeper into price movements by location.
Weekly movement
Overall, DAP prices at the above four locations moved sideways week-over-week. In the North American location, at Tampa Bay, prices remained unchanged week-over-week at $336 per metric ton, making it the third consecutive week for DAP prices to move sideways. Year-over-year, prices at that location fell 1.0% last week....
...MUCH MORE
