Friday, June 30, 2017

Ag Futures: Ahead of Big Data Day Some Exuberance in Grains

Symbol Last Chg
Corn 371-4+2-0
Soybeans 927-4+2-6
Wheat 508-6+12-6

From Agrimoney:

AM markets: big day for grains starts on a firm note, but...
A particularly big day on grain markets opened on more volatile note in many contracts than might be imagined.
Often, grain markets freeze ahead of the kind of US Department of Agriculture data that will be released later on Friday – much-anticipated statistics on US grain stocks (as of June 1) and on crop sowings.
These two briefings have a history of causing massive price volatility on release, so prompting a bit of market caution beforehand.
The reports "have historically been big market movers so an already frothy market could be spooked again", said CHS Hedging.
And that is not all that investors have to worry about, with the calendar bringing month end, a period when funds are often said to close positions, with the trend potentially enhanced this time by the occurrence of quarter-end too.
Furthermore, there is the prospect next week of the US July 4 holiday, meaning a curtailed (and likely low-volume) session on Monday, and no main trading session on Tuesday itself.
'Weather woes…'
Still, the spotlight is being taken away from such considerations in the wheat market especially by weather considerations, and the potential for even more damage to the US spring wheat crop from drought in its northern Plains heartland.
"US weather woes continue to support the market," said Terry Reilly at Futures International.
"Supportive features haven't changed," said Benson Quinn Commodities.
Western areas of the northern Plains "remain very dry, which is expected to continue for at least the next week.
"Additionally, temperatures are warming after a period of relatively benign temperatures through much of the region."...MORE
Chicago wheat over the last year, and in particular the last month gets one's attention, what with the verticality and all while the Minneapolis variety is, simply, approaching escape velocity:

Chicago via FinViz

Minneapolis via the MGEX: