We expect the trend to continue at minimum into the spring and will try to stave off the boredom that comes from guessing correctly by designing exotic shoulder season spreads to get widowmaker trapped in.
From the Energy Information Administration:
In the News:
As record setting cold blasts the East, western temperatures warmer than normal
When looking at the nation as a whole, since the start of the year, natural gas consumption has remained relatively flat and temperatures, on average, have been close to normal. Regionally, however, there is a stark difference between the eastern and western halves of the country.
Nationally, natural gas consumption from January 1 through February 20 was 2% higher this year compared to last year, with 6 of the top 20 U.S. natural gas consumption-days occurring during that period, according to data from Bentek Energy. Driven by regional weather patterns, consumption was up 4% in the eastern half of the country (Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest) over last year, but was down 9% in the West (Northwest, Rockies, and Southwest) during that period. In particular, Texas and the Southeast saw increasing demand, mostly due to power burn for space heating, of more than 10% during this period over the year-ago period.
Since the start of the year, record cold temperatures and significant snowfall have occurred in the eastern half of the country. Long-standing temperature records tumbled east of the Rockies, and cumulative heating degree days from January 1 through February 20 equaled 2,220, 11% more than normal. This is in contrast to the western half of the nation where daily temperatures have often been above average. Seven states — California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming — have reported average temperatures for the month of January in the top 10 warmest on record, with cumulative HDD since the beginning of the year totaling 922, 25% under normal.
With lower demand, spot volumes in the West have traded this year near or below that of the Henry Hub price, the U.S. natural gas benchmark, which averaged $2.88 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) January 1 to February 20. Average spot pricing for PG&E Citygate in California, Opal in Wyoming, and Northwest Sumas in Washington were $3.10/MMBtu, $2.64/MMBtu, and $2.54/MMBtu, respectively, for that period and much less than the key Northeast trading hubs, which have been trading four or more times higher than the West....MUCH MORE
