From Real Time Economics, Feb 7, 2014:
U.S. employers added 113,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.6%.
It was the second straight month of weaker-than-expected job growth,
with December’s number revised up a bit to 75,000. Economists disagreed
about whether the weather played a role, and some found silver linings
in Friday’s report.
A weak start to the year with back-to-back
disappointing employment reports in December and January suggesting
momentum in the labor market has waned. While weather may have slowed
consumer foot traffic at points during the month or impeded
manufacturing capacity in parts of the country, goods production hiring
improved at the start of the year, making it difficult to blame weather
for the headline weakness. –Sterne Agee Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza
In short, another weaker-than-expected report for
payrolls, and the details do not suggest that weather was the reason.
Beyond weather, there are plenty of other sources of volatility,
especially in a month with a 3-million swing in the seasonal factor.
Other data, such as claims and the ISMs, have not suggested any sudden
weakening in the trend. We still expect catch-up in coming months. – High Frequency Economics Chief U.S. Economist Jim O’Sullivan
When the economy finally manages to dig out from an unusually snowy and cold winter, activity may strengthen. – Interactive Brokers Chief Market Analyst Andrew Wilkinson
This has been the winter from hell for the economy and the frigid cold, ice and snow have taken its toll. –Naroff Economic Advisors President and Chief Economist Joel Naroff
There was little evidence of a weather disruption as
construction hiring rebounded to a robust 48k from a 22k decline in
December and manufacturing was also solid adding 21k after an 8k
increase. … Given the broader set of labor market indicators we think
that the real picture of the US economy and labor market conditions is
still one of chugging along, a disappointment to expectations of a take
off that had built around year end but hardly a disaster. – BNP Paribas Chief Economist for North America Julia Coronado
Grim, but seasonals may have played a role. … The
payroll rebound clearly is disappointing; none of ground lost in Dec was
recovered. And with the household survey – NOT directly comparable to
payrolls, but it’s all we have – showing 157K fewer people than usual
kept away from work by the weather, it is hard to pin the blame on the
severe winter. The seasonal adjustment, however, was very unhelpful
relative to Jan last year, for reasons which are not clear. Had last
year’s Jan seasonal factor been used this year, private payrolls would
have risen by 265K. – Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson
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