Monday, August 22, 2011

The Expected Rally Will be Delayed by a Day (DIA; QQQ; SPY)

This is very short term stuff, a day-and-a-half down and a day or two up.
On Friday I dropped a comment at MarketBeat:

5:11 pm August 19, 2011 
Climateer wrote:
  • Just as E.H. Harriman could “Distribute more stock on upticks…”:
    posted on the third day of the nine-day run to the July high of DJIA 12,719.49
    So the pros can cover shorts/accumulate more on downticks.
    Friday closes at or near the day/week/month YTD are interesting psychologically, as Ma and Pa investor worry all weekend about calling that Broker feller on Monday to bail on the losses they had been hoping would get back to even.
    Throw in the tendency of the market to go opposite the trend that led into option expiration and you get a set-up for Monday A.M. lows being the low for the week.
    It’s called the Grassy Knoll Theory of Investing. There is a “They”.
Then the Libya news hit and Asian markets which last night had been trending down, according to script, turned higher. Today we got the gap up in the DJIA and S&P, at the days high the Dow was up 182, and then the drift down.

If the models are right we should go negative this afternoon and get the "Ma and Pa" downmove tomorrow morning, dropping below the August 10 closing low of 10,719.94 and perhaps testing the Aug. 9 intra-day low of 10,588.55.
The numbers for the S&P are 1,119.46 and 1,101.54.
We're looking for the downmove to continue tomorrow morning before reversing into a 2-3% rally into Thursday.

Unless Qadaffi nukes Rome.