Monday, July 6, 2026

A Deeper Dive Into Samsung's Operating Profit Forecast

The number, $58.7B USD converted  is larger than either Nvidia's or Apple's making it the world's largest tech co. quarterly operating profit.

From Reuters, July 6:

Samsung flags 19-fold jump in profit, but shares slump on jitters AI boom may stall 

  • Samsung posts third straight record quarterly operating profit, beating estimates
  • AI demand continues to drive higher DRAM and NAND prices
  • Earnings top expectations despite hefty chip worker bonus provisions, analysts say
  • Shares fall as much as 7.9% following steep rise this year
  • Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) on Tuesday flagged a 19-fold jump ​in second-quarter operating profit from a year earlier, surpassing its combined earnings over the past three years, but its shares slid as the results failed ‌to ease concerns about the durability of the AI-driven chip boom.

    The world's largest memory chipmaker estimated April-June operating profit at 89.4 trillion won ($58.44 billion), beating an LSEG SmartEstimate of 87.3 trillion won, according to a regulatory filing. It reported a profit of 4.7 trillion won a year earlier. Revenue would likely rise 129% to 171 trillion won from a year earlier, it said. 

    Samsung shares nevertheless dropped as much as 7.9% ​in morning trade, while rival SK Hynix's shares fell as much as 7.3%, dragging the benchmark KOSPI (.KS11) down 6%. 

    Analysts attributed the stock's weakness to some lofty market ​expectations that profit, spurred by record memory chip prices, could exceed 90 trillion won even after factoring in provisions for staff bonuses, and ⁠worries that the rollout of AI data centres may stall. 

    "Samsung's strong earnings were widely expected and had largely been priced in after its shares rallied ahead of the results," ​said Albert Yong, a managing partner at Petra Capital Management who owns Samsung stock.
    "Investors remain concerned about the sustainability of the AI boom and the risk of slower AI infrastructure spending ​by major U.S. technology firms."

    Memory chip prices continued to climb during the quarter as AI spending broadened beyond high-bandwidth memory (HBM) into conventional DRAM and NAND products. 
    Samsung's profit surged even as it set aside funds for sizeable bonuses to its semiconductor workers, as agreed in a wage deal in May linking their pay to operating profit. 
    "Samsung posted better-than-expected earnings despite bonus-related provisions, as memory prices rose sharply," said Lee Min-hee, an analyst ​at BNK Investment & Securities.
    Without those provisions, its operating profit would likely have exceeded 100 trillion won, analysts said. 
    Jeff Kim, head of research at Seoul-based KB Securities-Jefferies, said the memory ​chip shortage will deepen this year and next year, as capacity growth would be limited while demand would remain strong. 
    "Samsung’s profit will continue to grow sequentially in the third quarter and fourth quarter. The ‌key is ⁠how sharply they will grow," he said. 
    Analysts said rapid growth in HBM production has tightened supply of conventional memory products used in smartphones, PCs and enterprise servers, further supporting prices. 
    Citi Research last week said average selling prices for DRAM and NAND rose 44% and 53% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, in the second quarter....
    ....MUCH MORE