Grid: Europe Faces A €30bn Shortfall To Build Cross-Border Connections

If the Europeans don't get their act together the folks coming from Syria, Africa and Afghanistan are going to be very disappointed.

From Review-Energy, December 2: 

Lack of cross-border projects puts Europe’s 2040 power system at risk

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Europe is not on track to meet its electricity interconnection goals, and the gap could threaten both energy security and system efficiency in the coming decades. According to a new report from Ember, Europe’s current pipeline of cross-border transmission projects falls far short of what is required for an optimised power system by 2040. The think tank warns that timely action is now essential to accelerate ongoing projects, stimulate new proposals and close a growing multi-billion-euro investment gap.

Interconnection expansion crucial for system reliability and cost efficiency 
Ember’s analysis underscores that strengthened interconnection is not merely a compliance target but a key driver of system reliability and cost-effectiveness. By 2040, every euro invested in expanding cross-border transmission capacity is expected to reduce generation costs by more than two euros.

However, Europe is still planning for 2030 based on timelines that typically exceed a decade. Ember stresses that decisions made now must already look toward 2040, guided by the EU’s Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), which evaluates where new interconnectors are most needed.

Interconnection capacity must nearly double between 2030 and 2040

According to Ember, Europe is expected to reach 167 GW of cross-border exchange capacity by 2030, up from 116 GW in 2024. But achieving an optimal power system in 2040 requires 318 GW, meaning 151 GW must be added during the 2030s—almost doubling current capacity.

Most projects remain in early stages: just over 1 GW is in permitting, 15 GW in planning and 46 GW under consideration. Around 55 GW of additional projects have not yet been proposed, a gap Ember says must be urgently addressed through political support and improved investment conditions.

Funding shortfall threatens Europe’s 2040 goals 
Interconnection projects are capital-intensive and heavily reliant on EU support. Historically, the Connecting Europe Facility for Energy (CEF-E) has covered about 31.5% of project costs. But Ember warns that this level of support will be insufficient for the scale of expansion required.

Building the extra 151 GW needed between 2030 and 2040 will cost at least €150 billion, yet the current proposal for the next CEF-E provides only €17 billion for electricity interconnection. According to Ember, this leaves a €30 billion funding gap that must be filled through a mix of EU loans, private financing and alternative funding approaches.

Ember outlines several scenarios, including increased lending from EU institutions such as the European Investment Bank (EIB) or market-driven merchant interconnectors recovering costs through congestion rents, as seen in BritNed and Eleclink.

80% of the EU power system will miss the 2030 interconnection target...

....MUCH MORE 

Ember prefers to be known as a think tank but they are also something of a pressure group