Monday, July 14, 2025

Inflation: Ahead Of Tomorrow's Release Of The June CPI Numbers....

...The Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast is looking for a month-over-moth uptick.

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, updated through today: 

Inflation, month-over-month percent change 

Month          CPI     Core CPI      PCE      Core PCE    Updated 

July 2025     0.16      0.24          0.16          0.22          07/14 

June 2025   0.25      0.23          0.23          0.22          07/14 

Note: If the cell is blank, it implies that the actual data corresponding to the month for that inflation measure have already been released.

....MUCH MORE, including year-over-year guesses nowcasts (2.64% vs last month's 2.4% YoY)

For comparison, the June 11 BLS release of the May numbers had both headline and core printing at a 0.1% increase. (and YoY headline at 2.4%)