Tuesday, October 29, 2024

"10-year Treasury yields rise above 4.3% ahead of inflation and jobs data"

Equity investors are going to want to see the ascent of rates halt very soon lest all the discounted present value calculations start to imply the cash flows they see ten years out aren't worth nearly as much as they were at the beginning of October. 

From MarketWatch, October 29:

Benchmark bond yields rose early Tuesday, registering their highest levels since July, partly in response to recent better-than-expected U.S. economic data and concerns about revived inflationary pressures should Donald Trump win next week’s election.

What’s driving markets
Treasury yields are hitting fresh three-month highs above 4.30% as traders steel themselves to navigate several days replete with potentially weighty market catalysts.

The ICE BoAML MOVE index, a gauge of expected Treasury market volatility has climbed to 130.9, its highest for the year, as nerves build ahead of the November 5 U.S. election, which will impact thinking on the burgeoning fiscal deficit.

“The recent Treasury sell-off also likely incorporates the increased probability of a Republican clean sweep, and potentially unconstrained fiscal power,” said Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Investors are also wary ahead of some updates on inflation and the health of the U.S. labor market this week.....

....MUCH MORE

There's a lot more going on here that just the Presidential and Congressional elections:

"...the Treasury expects to raise $823 billion in new debt in the first calendar quarter of 2025"