"Russian court fines Google $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000" (GOOG)

Back to the Register, October 29 this time:

Don't hold your breath Putin

A Russian court has ruled that Google owes Russian media stations around $20 decillion in fines for blocking their content, and the fines could get bigger.

To put that into perspective, the World Bank estimates global GDP as around $100 trillion, which is peanuts compared to the prospective fine. Google would therefore have to find more money than exists on Earth to pay Moscow - but on Tuesday fell a little short of that mark when it posted $88 billion quarterly revenue.

The bizarre amount has been calculated after a four-year court case that started after YouTube banned the ultra-nationalist Russian channel Tsargrad in 2020 in response to the US sanctions imposed against its owner. Following Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022 more channels were added to the banned list and 17 stations are now suing the Chocolate Factory, including Zvezda (a TV channel owned by Putin's Ministry of Defence), according to local media....

....MUCH MORE

A decillion here and a decillion there and pretty soon you're talking real money.

Earlier from El Reg:

US Army should ditch tanks for AI drones, says [ex-GOOG CEO] Eric Schmidt

"Beijing mulls buying unsold homes for 4 trillion yuan"

From Asia Times, November 1:

Two top Chinese economists make the surprise admission that China has 9 million poor people and a high debt-to-GDP ratio  

The Chinese government is said to be considering issuance in the next five years of 4 trillion yuan (US$561 billion) in special treasury bonds in order to fund the purchase of unsold homes and idle sites in an effort to reduce inventory in the markets and support property prices.

The issuance of these bonds will come on top of the previously-reported issuance of 6 trillion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds, which will be implemented over the next three years, Reuters reported. 

It is expected that these long-term money printing schemes will be discussed in the coming standing of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee between November 4 and 8. 

The meeting was originally scheduled for late October but it was postponed to November with some media reports saying that Beijing wants to make its final decision after the United States presidential election. 

In case the election’s winner is Republican candidate Donald Trump, who vowed to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, China may need a stronger stimulus package to maintain its economic growth for the next few years, Reuters reported, citing two unnamed sources....

....MUCH MORE

People in positions of authority are being allowed to say things that would have been inconceivable in 2016.

Something has changed in the thinking of the highest levels of the government and the Party, right up to paramount leader Xi.

Here's another example at Bloomberg via MSN: "Xi Highlights Employment Woes in Speech Published Before US Vote"

US Army should ditch tanks for AI drones, says [ex-GOOG CEO] Eric Schmidt

From The Register, October 30:

And what do you know, Google's former CEO just so happens to have a commercial solution

Former Google chief Eric Schmidt thinks the US Army should expunge "useless" tanks and replace them with AI-powered drones instead.

Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia this week, he said: "I read somewhere that the US had thousands and thousands of tanks stored somewhere," adding, "Give them away. Buy a drone instead."

Did we mention that Schmidt is the founder of a startup called White Stork that aims to develop AI-driven attack drones?

The former Google supremo's argument is that recent conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, have demonstrated how "a $5,000 drone can destroy a $5 million tank."

In fact, even cheaper drones, similar to those commercially available for consumers, have been shown in footage on social media dropping grenades through the open turret hatch of tanks.

Schmidt, who was CEO of Google from 2001 to 2011, then executive chairman to 2015, and executive chairman of Alphabet to 2018, founded White Stork with the aim of supporting Ukraine's war effort. It hopes to achieve this by developing a low-cost drone that can use AI to acquire its target rather than being guided by an operator and can function in environments where GPS jamming is in operation.

Notably, Schmidt also served as chair of the US government's National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI), which advised the President and Congress about national security and defense issues with regard to AI....

....MUCH MORE

If interested see also "Silicon Valley Freakshow: 'Silicon Valley’s Long History of Government Codependence'" or ""Do venture capitalists want forever war?" or "The Pentagon’s Silicon Valley Problem" or any of the posts on Palmer Luckey and his company Anduril:

• Modern War: "Anduril Is Building Out the Pentagon’s Dream of Deadly Drone Swarms"
• Autonomous Fighter Jet Company Anduril And Anti-Drone Technology For Your Home" 
• Palmer Luckey's "Anduril poised to fill America’s missile supply gap"
• From Virtual Reality To Remaking Our Bloated Defence Industry, Palmer Luckey Is Trying To Forge A New America. Will It Let Him?
• First World Problems: "Billionaire Palmer Luckey keeps getting stuck in the elevator of his car mansion, lawsuit claims"

"Oculus founder plans to double UK workforce for defence company Anduril"

Anti-drone technology is so hot right now.

"Elon Musk Could Have US Citizenship Revoked If He Lied on Immigration Forms"

If so, I wonder if any country anywhere in the world would take him? Or would he become The Man Without a Country? [The Atlantic magazine, December 1863 Issue]

From Wired Magazine, October 31:

The richest man in the world appears to have worked in the US without authorization. According to experts, if he did so and lied about it as part of the immigration process, he could be denaturalized.

Elon Musk could have his United States citizenship revoked and be exposed to criminal prosecution if he lied to the government as part of the immigration process, according to legal experts.

Musk, who was born and raised in South Africa and later emigrated to Canada before eventually settling in the US and becoming a citizen, has spent more than $100 million to support Donald Trump and his nativist presidential campaign, and has personally demonized immigrants. A recent Bloomberg analysis found, for example, that Musk has posted around 1,300 times on X this year about immigration and voter fraud. Many of those posts promote the “great replacement” conspiracy theory, which falsely holds that Democrats seek to replace white voters with unauthorized immigrants whose votes they control, and depicts immigrants as dangerous lawbreakers.

Earlier this week, though, The Washington Post reported that Musk was himself an immigrant who had apparently broken the law. In the 1990s, he worked illegally in the United States, according to the Post, which cited “former business associates, court records and company documents.”

In 1995, according to the Post, Musk was admitted to graduate school at Stanford but didn’t enroll in classes, instead working on an online services startup that would eventually be known as Zip2. (Stanford did not reply to requests for comment.) In 1996, the Post reported, investors made a funding agreement contingent on Musk and his brother Kimbal—who has stated that the brothers were “illegal immigrants”—obtaining authorization to work in the US within 45 days. “Their immigration status was not what it should be for them to be legally employed running a company in the US,” Zip2 board member Derek Proudian told the Post.....

....MUCH MORE

Good to see the Biden-Harris administration cracking down on immigration scofflaws, whether or not the accusation is true and whether or not the WaPo's owner would benefit from much-reduced space-biz competition.

Earnings: Amazon Reports, Beats—and now for something completely different—Stock Pops (AMZN)

From Seattle's own Geekwire, October 31:

Amazon stock jumps 6%; Q3 revenue up 11% to $158.9B; profits hit $15.3B; AWS sales up 19% 

Amazon topped estimates for its third quarter earnings, reporting $158.9 billion in revenue, up 11% year-over-year, and earnings per share of $1.43. Profits jumped to $15.3 billion, from $9.9 billion in the year-ago period.

Analysts expected revenue of $157 billion and earnings per share of $1.14.

Shares were up 6% in after-hours trading on Thursday. Amazon stock is up more than 40% in the past 12 months.

Amazon Web Services met expectations with $27.4 billion in revenue, up 19%. The cloud unit continues to drive profits for the larger business, reporting $10.4 billion in operating income.

Amazon’s overall operating income reached $17.4 billion in the third quarter, compared to $11.2 billion a year ago.

Here’s a breakdown of Amazon’s financials for the third quarter....

....MUCH MORE

And here were the expectations, October 30 - "Amazon earnings preview: Analysts watching AWS growth, retail margins, Project Kuiper" 

Last I saw the stock was up $8.81 (+4.73%) at $195.00 after trading down $6.54 to $186.19 during the regular session.

"The Economics of Dracula"

If one is looking for last minute costume ideas we apologize profusely. Someone (ahem) forgot to do a Holiday-themed fashion-n-finance mashup. But! It's on the calendar for 2025, though there is a real possibility the freakout will be in the finance half of the pairing, if bond yields are any indication. Earlier: "Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: Headline and Core Picking UP Month over Month; Down YoY"

10-year note yield 4.3210%  up 0.0550%

From Mises.org, October 31, 2012:

Vlad the Impaler, and his literary incarnation, Count Dracula, are rooted in a dark period of monetary inflation and economic nationalism.

Another Halloween is upon us, bringing its late autumnal burst of costumes, candy, and merriment. Ghosts, witches, mummies, zombies, Frankenstein's monster, film and television characters, and others will make appearances, as will the quintessential Halloween figure: Dracula.

Most people are familiar with Count Dracula's first literary appearance in Bram Stoker's 1897 Gothic horror novel Dracula. And many are also aware that the undead villain was loosely based on a real historical figure, Vlad Tepes III — "Vlad the Impaler" (sometimes "Vlad Dracula") — who ruled mid-15th century Wallachia, a region of modern day Romania.

Incredibly, though, there is a real but lesser-known horror story behind Dracula — a story of the long-term effects of inflationary policies and a consequent campaign of economic nationalism, rather than of a mythic, powerful undead creature: interventionism pursued terrifyingly, diligently, to its logical ends.

The Real Dracula
In 1431, Vlad Tepes III, the man who would become the inspiration for Count Dracula, was born in Transylvania. With his father, Vlad II, on the Wallachian throne, early in life he and his brother were sent to the Ottoman court of Mehmet the Conqueror to act as living guarantors of their father's fidelity ("loyalty hostages"). While his brother, Radu, flourished, Vlad III was insolent and regularly experienced beatings and imprisonment.

Typical for that time, a host of intrigues swirled about the court of Vlad II, compounded by Wallachia's critical location as a buffer kingdom between the Ottoman and Holy Roman Empires; changes in leadership could bring about changes in policy, swiftly impacting trade and fortunes. In December of 1447, Vlad II was murdered during a coup. The Ottomans responded swiftly, appointing young Vlad III to his father's former throne. A Hungarian force in turn responded, driving Vlad to flee to Moldavia where he undertook diplomatic duties alongside his uncle.

In 1453, Constantinople fell, and Ottoman forces surged through the Balkans. When the Hungarian occupiers left Wallachia to support their allies and help staunch the flow of invaders, Vlad III, now 23, leapt into action, organizing and leading a successful invasion of his native land.

Wreckage
On retaking the throne, Vlad was stunned to find Wallachia in a state of utter social and economic decay. Where once a brisk trade in "salt, cattle … honey, wine … wax" and many other goods had prospered, the economy was now utterly destroyed.1

In fact, throughout the century prior to Vlad III's return, the Wallachian economy had been systematically destroyed by liberal use of a well-known policy strategy: currency manipulation. Previous rulers of Wallachia had repeatedly implemented monetary "reform,"

each [of which] led to the introduction of a more debased … lighter weight type of ducat … [in order to] increase of the amount of the coinage needed by … expanding political payments.2

The previous Wallachian leaders' motives were timeworn as well: "Wallachia was confronted, almost permanently, with excessive military expenses … as well as an active international policy."

Thus, there were "serious threats … [to] the monetary stability in Wallachia during the entire 14th–15th century."3
Consistent expansion of the money supply had created insecurity within the realm, and Vlad immediately took action to create security, making his ruling objectives clear:

My sacred mission is to bring order.… There must be security for all in my land.… When a prince is powerful at home, he will be able to do as he wills. If I am feared by the right people, [we] will be strong.4

Over the next six years, he implemented policies according to three rough tenets: class warfare/redistribution, protectionism, and welfare statism. Accounts of Vlad III's murderous efforts in these pursuits rival, in their sanguineous ingenuity, the most nightmarish accounts of both La Terreur of revolutionary France and the concentration camps of Nazi Germany. In Roumania Past and Present, historian James Samuelson notes, regarding the legends surrounding Vlad Tepes III, "if one-tenth of what has been related to him [is] true … [he is] one of the most atrocious and cruel tyrants who ever disgraced even those dark ages."5

However, Vlad III was more than just a sadist; his victims were chosen according to their usefulness with respect to fulfilling his vision for a revitalized Wallachia. Indeed, several historians agree that "it is beyond any doubt that [among other] reasons, Vlad the Impaler was … guided by economic ones."6

Class Warfare
A bulwark of the social and economic landscape of Wallachia — and most of Eastern Europe, at this time — was the boyar class: a social rank of landowners, merchants, and military elites one level below the ruling nobility. Vlad III blamed the merchants and elites for the economic troubles of the time. Consequently, a centerpiece of his plan to right the economic ship of Wallachia focused on persecuting the boyars and seizing their property: leveraging the masses' schadenfreud to harness the considerable power of envy and, in turn, greater breadth to the reach of his throne. 

The implicit message behind Vlad III's policy was an enduring one, as states go: that the wealthy and productive live off and at the expense of the multitude. In fact, governments are the true vampires, clandestinely siphoning the productive output of all citizens while pitting them against each other through propaganda and prevarication.

In Easter 1456, Vlad III invited a number of prominent boyars to his castle, some of whom he suspected of taking part in the conspiracy to murder his father. Suddenly, without warning, the

able-bodied were chained together and forced to march for sixty miles through the rugged countryside to the ruins of Poienari in the Argest valley. Many of them died enroute.… The prisoners were forced to form a human chain under the whip to convey building materials up the mountainside. The restoration work lasted for two months and very few of the captives survived the ordeal.7

Throughout the remainder of his reign, Vlad III decimated the landowning and merchant population and at the same time seized their wealth and property. Throughout his reign, in fact, he devoted extensive time and effort to "systematically eradicate the old boyar class of Wallachia."8 In August of 1459, one account reports that he "had thirty thousand merchants and boyars" killed.9....

...MUCH MORE

Earnings: Quanta Services Beats, Stock Get Spanked For 3%+ (PWR)

I was about to mention this is a decade-or-two hold and realized that would come dangerously close to saying "the short term trade has become a long term investment." Instead PWR is the premier line-slinger when serious money thinks about rewiring the country's electrical grid.

The stock is down $7.24 (-2.32%) at $304.39 after opening at $299.14 and getting as low as $293.26.

Two from Zacks via Yahoo Finance, October 31:

Quanta Services (PWR) Q3 Earnings Top Estimates

Quanta Services (PWR) came out with quarterly earnings of $2.72 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.66 per share. This compares to earnings of $2.24 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 2.26%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this specialty contractor for utility and energy companies would post earnings of $1.93 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.90, delivering a surprise of -1.55%....

....MUCH MORE

And October 29:

Quanta Services Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: Things to Keep in Mind...

 Quanta Services, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Quanta Services, Inc. Quote

....MUCH MORE  

And at the company:

Oct 31, 2024 • 6:55 AM EDT Q3 2024 Quarterly Results

Quarter Ended Sep 30, 2024 

• Earnings Release HTMLPDF
• Earnings Webcast Audio
• Operational and Financial Commentary PDF
• Outlook Expectations Summary PDF

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: Headline and Core Picking UP Month over Month; Down YoY

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis, October 31:

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2024

Personal income

Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $57.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.8 billion (0.5 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent (table 5). Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in September and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.7 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 3 and 4).

	2024
	May	June	July	Aug.	Sept.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.4	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.3
Chained (2017) dollars	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	0.5	0.3	0.6	0.3	0.5
Chained (2017) dollars	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.4
Price indexes:
PCE	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	2.6	2.4	2.5	2.3	2.1
PCE, excluding food and energy	2.7	2.6	2.7	2.7	2.7

The increase in current-dollar personal income in September primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by decreases in personal interest income and proprietors’ income (table 2)....

....MUCH MORE

Halloween, Who got better treats?: "Do Kids Have a Fundamental Sense of Fairness?"

Pretty much from the word "go" in a self-centered sort of way.

For empathy to develop, takes a while longer.

From Scientific American, August 2017:

Experiments show that this quality often emerges by the age of 12 months

Children have a reputation for selfishness. Picture a traditional morning-after-Halloween scene: A child is hunched over a huge mound of collected candy while their parent stands by begging them to share their spoils with a younger, less fortunate sibling. The frustrated parent in this scene embodies the common notion that the only way to get children to be fair is to forcibly extract it out of them, like blood from a stone.

After studying children’s fairness behavior for nearly a decade we argue that this reputation is, well, unfair.

We travel to public spaces in different cities and ask children to play a simple game: Two children who do not know each other are paired up and given an unfair distribution of candy. One child gets four candies, the other gets one candy. Here’s where things get interesting. One of the two children—the decider—can accept or reject the allocation. If the decider accepts, both children get their candy. If the decider rejects, both children get nothing. Imagine that, like the Halloween scenario, the child in power gets four and their partner gets one. What will they do?

If you are like most parents watching their children play our game, you probably think the decider will happily accept the four, creating a stark inequality with the peer. Children only focus on getting more for themselves, right? To the surprise and delight of many an unsuspecting parent, children—at least older children—frequently reject this unfair advantage. They are willing to sacrifice their own rewards to prevent someone else from getting the short end of the stick. Getting nothing seems better than getting more than a peer, even a child whom they have just met....

....MUCH MORE

Very related, "Fairness, Capuchin Monkeys and Wall Street":

This is a few years old but contains some good lessons so is probably worth reposting

The speaker, Frans de Waal, is one of the heavyweights of the primate world. Actually, we all are among the heavyweights of the primate world but he's up there with Jane Goodall in the study of primates.
A quick hit via TED:

Possibly related: "Who has a deeper sense of fairness, a mortgage banker or a chimpanzee?" 

Probably not related: "Alcoholic killer monkey leaves one man dead and 250 injured...." 

Unrelated:

• "How scientists taught monkeys the concept of money. Not long after, the first prostitute monkey appeared"
• Commodity traders superior to chimpanzees, research shows

I made a serious career track mistake.
Years ago a counselor pointed out that I seemed to have an affinity for animals (It's true. Kids and dogs like me. So do drunks and folks suffering from various psychopathologies).
Had I followed up on her thinking I would now be tenured, trading outside my species and living the grant-proposal dream....

 ...chimpanzees in nature do not store property and thus would have little opportunity to trade commodities...

"5 Macabre and Mysterious Stories About Candy"

From Atlas Obscura, October 11:

From unsolved candy crimes to treats eaten only at funerals, these stories are bittersweet. 

Perk up your ears and listen closely, for the soundtrack of Halloween is creeping up on us: the rustling of candy wrappers, the cracking of chocolate bars, the crunch of hard candies being crushed between eager teeth. This means that it’s time to stock up on not just your neighborhood’s favorite candy, but also some history from our archives—both sweet and sour.

In Malta, ‘Dead Men’s Bones’ Are a Sweet, Spiritual Tradition

by Alice Levitt

If you’re planning a visit to Malta from the end of October and into November, keep an eye out for għadam tal-mejtin (dead men’s bones), or alternatively, għadam ta’ Novembru (November bones). These bones—which are, spoiler alert, not real bones—are edible memento mori, part of Malta’s longstanding Month of the Dead celebrations. While the outside resembles a large bone-shaped sugar cookie, a bite into the crunchy shell reveals its deliciously warm “marrow” flavored with cardamom and clove.

 

Swedish funeral candy came in an array of memento mori–themed wrappers.  

Karolina Kristensson/Nordiska Museet

 The Lost Art of Swedish Funeral Confectionery

by Sam O’Brien

In the 19th century, when mourners arrived at somber upper-class Swedish funerals, they could expect to be handed a morsel of ornately-decorated hard candy. The wrapper that enclosed the sweet made no bones about the macabre subject at hand, with designs including skulls, graves, and, in one case, a skeletal figure snipping the strings of time with scissors. Today, the art of creating this funeral confectionery has all but disappeared.

How Tainted Treats Led to a Halloween Tragedy in 1858....

....MUCH MORE

Capital Markets: "Ueda Lifts Yen, Stocks Slump, Gilts Under Pressure Post-Budget"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The main move in the foreign exchange market today is the recovery of the yen following what was seen as hawkish comments by BOJ Governor Ueda. Otherwise, the tone is one of consolidation. The equity market sell-off today may be weighing on the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies amid risk-off impulses. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The Mexican peso, which fell to a new low for the year yesterday, is stabilizing today and is among the stronger emerging market currencies..

Only China's CSI 300 of the large markets in Asia Pacific rose today, and Europe's Stoxx 600 is off around 0.75%. If sustained, it will be the third consecutive decline. US index futures are around 1% lower. The equity sell-off in Europe is not spurring a bid for bonds. Benchmark 10-year yields are 4-8 basis points higher, with UK Gilt yields rising most post-budget. The 10-year US Treasury yield is little changed near 4.29%. Gold set a record high slightly above $2990 but is now lower on the day. Oil is firm, but the gap created by Monday's lower opening in the December WTI contract extends to about $71.80 has not been filled.  

Asia Pacific
It was a busy day in the region.... 

....MUCH MORE

"Lebanon’s PM says he hopes for a Hezbollah ceasefire with Israel in ‘hours or days’"

From The Times of Israel, October 30:

Leaked draft shows Lebanon deal would include global oversight, Israeli freedom to act * Top US officials heading to Israel and the region 

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati says he is striving for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah war within days.

“We are doing our best… to have a ceasefire within the coming hours or days,” Mikati says during a televised interview with Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed, adding that he is “cautiously optimistic.”

However (also ToI): 

White House: Leaked Lebanon proposal ‘doesn’t reflect current state of negotiations’

First Solar Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript (FSLR)

It sounds like dead money for at least a quarter.

First up, from Barron's, October 30:

First Solar Stock Plunges 8%. Here’s Why.
First Solar is the only U.S.-based large scale solar panel maker and has benefited hugely from tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)

First Solar stock fell sharply early Wednesday, a drop that analysts attribute to various factors apparent in its latest earnings report released Tuesday. 

First Solar is the only U.S.-based large scale solar panel maker and has benefited hugely from tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) from 2022 aimed at onshoring clean energy production. However, it was largely due to its international business that the panel maker posted an earnings miss on both top and bottom lines after markets had closed Tuesday.

Shares were down 8.4% to $183.00 in premarket trading Wednesday.

The company’s bookings in the quarter have slowed down, reflecting a selective approach against an increasingly challenging industry backdrop and resulting inventory build up, KeyBanc analyst Sophie Karp said. “With elections a week away adding policy uncertainty to the already muddied solar landscape, we reiterate Sector Weight rating at this juncture,” Karp wrote....

....MORE

And from Motley Fool Transcribing, October 29:

FSLR earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2024.
Contents: 

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to First Solar's third quarter 2024 earnings call. This call is being webcast live on the investors section of First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to First Solar investor relations.

You may begin.

Unknown speaker -- --

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. Today, the company issued a press release announcing its third quarter 2024 financial results. A copy of the press release and associated presentation are available on First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com. With us today are: Mark Widmar, chief executive officer; and Alex Bradley, chief financial officer.

Mark will provide a business and technology update, Alex will discuss our bookings, pipeline, quarterly financial results and provide updated guidance. Following the remarks, we will open the call to questions. Please note, this call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statements contained in today's press release and presentation for a more complete description.

It is now my pleasure to introduce Mark Widmar, chief executive officer.

Mark R. Widmar -- Chief Executive Officer and Director

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. As we approach the end of 2024, we remain pleased with the progress made across our business, navigating against the backdrop of industry volatility and political uncertainty, with a continuous focus on balancing growth, profitability and liquidity. As noted at our analyst day in late 2023, in our previous earnings call, our story is about the value of long-term strategic decision-making, underpinned by differentiated technology and business model, which endeavors to drive value creation for our shareholders and partners. We expect that this disciplined long-term approach will allow us to work through the outcomes of the upcoming U.S. elections as well as continued volatility across the solar manufacturing industry. Beginning on Slide 3, I will share some key highlights from the third quarter. From a commercial perspective, we continued our highly selected approach to contracting with a net 0.4 gigawatts of new bookings since our last earnings call. This brings our year-to-date net bookings to 4 gigawatts and our total contracted backlog to 73.3 gigawatts, with orders stretching through 2030.

From a manufacturing perspective, while we're pleased with record production of 3.8 gigawatts in the quarter, our financial results were impacted by a product warranty charge of $50 million due to manufacturing issues, which we have identified and taken actions to address, related to the initial production of our Series 6 -- Series 7, excuse me, product, primarily attributed to variability in the effectiveness of the glass cleaning process at the beginning of our production line and an error in our process of predicting the engineering performance margin. We inaugurated our new $1.1 billion Alabama facility, which when, fully scaled, adds 3.5 gigawatts of vertically integrated nameplate solar manufacturing capacity. The start of commercial operation at the Alabama facility, along with our under construction Louisiana facility, which remains on track to begin operations in the second half of 2025, keeps us on course to achieve our projection of over 14 gigawatts of annual U.S. nameplate capacity and over 25 gigawatts of global nameplate capacity by 2026.

This growth is expected to support an estimated 30,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs in the U.S. alone, representing $2.8 billion in annual labor income, demonstrating the significant contribution to our nation's economic growth that high-value solar manufacturing can provide. Turning to technology. As planned, we are launching CuRe production at our lead line in Ohio in Q4 of this year.

We intend to launch its production in a phased approach, initially producing and selling approximately 0.4 gigawatts of CuRe product through Q1 2025. Upon successful field performance validation following the deployment of this volume of sold CuRe product, we intend to permanently convert the Ohio lead line to CuRe in Q4 2025, as well as replicate CuRe across the fleet, beginning that schedule with our Vietnam and third Ohio facilities in time to start capturing upside from our contractual revenue adjusters. In addition, at our new perovskite development line in Perrysburg, this quarter will be the first time we'll be able to run technology samples through an automated process that simulates in-line manufacturing conditions as we accelerate our efforts to develop the next breakthrough in thin film photovoltaic technology. With regard to intellectual property, we have recently sent notification letters to Tier 1 solar manufacturers that we believe are infringing on First Solar's TOPCon patent portfolio, which I'll discuss in more detail later in the call.

While Alex will provide a comprehensive overview of the third quarter 2024 financial results, I would like to highlight our third quarter earnings per share of $2.91, which includes the $50 million product warranty charge referenced earlier. Finally, our leadership in thin film technology and track record of investing in innovation led to First Solar being recognized by MIT Technology Reviews annual list of climate tech companies to watch, the only solar technology and manufacturing company to be included in this year's list. Furthermore, we were also proud to make our debut as Times Magazine's World's best companies in 2024 list. Moving to Slide 4....

....MUCH MORE, including trouble and opportunity in India:

...What about ASPs for our 0.8 gigawatts of gross bookings since the prior earnings call? This includes approximately 180 megawatts of domestic India shipments at an ASP of approximately $0.19 per watt. Given the India market price environment, I'll further discuss our strategy as it relates to the sales of our India produced products shortly....

Previously - Earnings: "First Solar Stumbles in Third Quarter, Lowers Outlook" (FSLR)

"BYD Revenue Eclipses Tesla for First Time as EV Giants Go Head to Head"

This is not news for our loyal and long-suffering readers.*

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, October 30:

BYD Co. notched up another win over Tesla Inc. on Wednesday, reporting quarterly revenue that beat Elon Musk’s carmaker for the first time since the pair have gone head-to-head in global electric vehicles sales.

Revenue for China’s best-selling automaker soared 24% year-on-year to 201.1 billion yuan ($28.2 billion) for the three months ending Sept. 30, falling short of estimates, but exceeding Tesla whose sales hit $25.2 billion in the same period.

Net income increased 11.5% to an all-time high of 11.6 billion yuan, surpassing consensus, after BYD sold an unprecedented 1.12 million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles last quarter. It generated a gross margin of 21.9%. Its profit however is still overshadowed by the $2.2 billion Tesla earned.

In the first nine months, BYD had net income of 25.2 billion yuan on revenue of 502.3 billion yuan.

BYD and Tesla have emerged as breakout threats to legacy automakers, particularly as Volkswagen AG, Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, and General Motors Co. struggle along the path to profitability with their EV transitions. As consumer demand for electric cars wanes, BYD has been insulated more than Tesla considering its strong line up of hybrid vehicles.

Hybrid vehicles are a major contributor to the revenue surge at Shenzhen-based BYD, with some models’ upgraded powertrains allowing for more than 2,000 kilometers range. Another key part of BYD’s edge is its vertically integrated supply chain, and making more parts in-house gives it a cost and scale advantage to produce cars cheaper....

....MUCH MORE

*2024 has been the year of the return of the hybrid and Tesla doesn't offer one. 

Two posts from February 2024 pointed out what was coming:

"The world’s top carmaker got mocked for rejecting EV hype—not anymore. ‘I want to congratulate Toyota’"

Rystad: "China’s EV Growth Set To Explode in 2024"
Watch out Elon. Hybrids and plug-in electric hybrids seem to be where the consumer is at vs. battery electric vehicles. At least for the moment.

Mr. Musk, who seems to have some insight into the industry, says there will be 10 surviving manufacturers, 9 of them Chinese.*

"Private job creation totaled a stunning 233,000 in October, far more than expected, ADP says" (GDP growth misses)

From CNBC, October 30:

• ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000.
• It was the best month for job creation since July 2023.
• The numbers counter expectations for a slowdown in October on the heels of two brutal hurricanes and strikes at Boeing and ports on the Eastern seaboard. 

....MUCH MORE

And:

U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the third quarter, less than expected

Capital Markets: "Eurozone Growth Surprises, Lifts Euro, while UK Budget is Awaited"

 From Marc to Market:

Overview:  The US 10-year yield is off around a dozen basis points off yesterday's high and European growth in Q3 was better than expected. This appears to have encouraged some dollar liquidation today. The greenback is softer against the G10 currencies, but the Canadian dollar and sterling. The much-awaited UK Autumn budget will be announced shortly. Sterling is consolidating around $1.30. Most emerging market currencies also are enjoying a firmer tone today.

Asia Pacific and European equities are trading heavier. The Asia Pacific, all the large markets but Japan fell. The Hang Seng and mainland companies that trade there fell by more than 1.5%, to lead the region lower. The Stoxx 600 in Europe reversed early gains yesterday and fell by about 0.55%. Today, it is down around 0.7%. On the other hand, US index futures are firm. Benchmark 10-year yields are mixed. Gilts have caught a bid ahead of the budget and are off nearly six basis points. Other 10-year yields are narrowly mixed. The 10-year US Treasury yield is down about three basis points to approach 4.22%. Gold set a record yesterday and is extending its gains today to trade to almost $2790 today before consolidating a little. After gapping lower on Monday, December WTI remains pinned near its lows. It is trading roughly between $67.30-$68.20 today, well within yesterday's range....

....MUCH MORE

"OpenAI, Broadcom Working to Develop AI Inference Chip" (AVGO; TSM)

Inference, it's all anyone is talking about. 

(I obviously don't get out enough)

From Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, October 29:

OpenAI is working with Broadcom Inc. to develop a new artificial intelligence chip specifically focused on running AI models after they’ve been trained, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The AI startup and chipmaker are also consulting with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest chip contract manufacturer, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private. OpenAI has been planning a custom chip and working on such uses for the technology for around a year, the people said, but the discussions are still at an early stage.

OpenAI declined to comment. A representative for Broadcom didn’t respond to a request for comment, and a TSMC spokesperson said the company doesn’t comment on rumors and speculation. Reuters reported on OpenAI’s ongoing talks with Broadcom and TSMC on Tuesday. The Information reported in June that Broadcom had discussed making an AI chip for OpenAI.

The process for taking a chip from design to production is long and expensive. OpenAI is less focused on graphics processing units, chips that are used to train and build generative AI models — a market that has been cornered by Nvidia Corp. Instead, it’s looking for a specialized chip that will run the software and respond to user requests, a process called inference. Investors and analysts expect the need for chips to support inference will only grow as more tech companies use AI models to field more complex tasks....

....MUCH MORE

If OpenAI is consulting with TSMC I would guess that Sam Altman has not found anyone to step up with the $5 to $7 trillion  he's been panhandling for:

Chips: "TSMC execs allegedly dismissed Sam Altman as ‘podcasting bro’ — OpenAI CEO made absurd requests for 36 fabs for $7 trillion"

And on inference:

Chips: The Pivot From Training To Inference (where Nvidia's dominance isn't as strong)

Elon Musk earlier today tweeted that xAI's supercomputer was built in under 17 weeks, just incredible. However...there's always an "however"....this means that the chips have been purchased, the die has been cast, etc.

See PC Mag, September 3: "Musk's xAI Supercomputer Goes Online With 100,000 Nvidia GPUs".

Additionally, the big buyers (AMZN, META, MSFT) will be transitioning the usage of their computers from training to inference and it is here we join the electronic geniuses at IEEE Spectrum, August 28....

"Making GenAI more efficient with a new kind of chip" (plus some of our history with Nvidia)

....A lot of people see the opportunity in the inference, rather than the training, end of things but inference at the edge could lead to the kind of serendipitous manufacturing—research—discovery feedback loop that Nvidia experienced when they were pushing the limits of using GPUs as accelerators for supercomputers in 2015 -2016.....

 Nvidia Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript, August 28, 2024 (NVDA)

"NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript"

"We estimate in the past year approximately 40% of data center revenue was for AI inference," Colette Kress, Nvidia's Chief Financial Officer (CFO) reported.

Nvidia Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jensen Huang later said that the 40% estimate is "probably understated" due to the use of deep learning and generative AI (GenAI) interfaces for online recommender systems.....

A Deep Dive Into Zuckerberg's New AI Chip (META; TSM)
With MTIA v2 Chip, Meta Can Do AI Inference, But Not Training...

And many, many more, it's all anyone is talking about.

Dear Ukraine, Are You Sure You Want To Be Bombing Chechnya?

From Reuters, October 29:

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov promised on Tuesday to take revenge for a drone attack that caused a fire at a military training academy in his south Russian region.

Ukraine has frequently struck Russia with drones in the course of the war, but Tuesday's attack appeared to be the first against Chechnya. There was no immediate comment from Kyiv.

"They've bitten us - we will destroy them," Kadyrov told reporters in a video published by Russian state news agency RIA.

"In the very near future we'll show them the kind of vengeance they've never even dreamt of," he said....

....MUCH MORE

 

I think he means it.  Earlier in the war one of his commanders had to be talked out of marching on Berlin. As noted in August when Kadyrov got his hands on a Tesla truck:

 

 

Credit: Ramzan Kadyrov | Telegram via Teslarati

 

There's something a bit surreal about giving a photo credit to the warlord/President of Chechnya but then the Chechens are crazy mofos and Teslarati may have been concerned about the country's intellectual property enforcement policies.

The article says Musk "has not commented on how or if Kadyrov actually “received” the Cybertruck from him." while Turkey's Andalou Agency is headlining their story with:

Elon Musk denies giving Cybertruck to Chechen leader
Ramzan Kadyrov pulls off apparent new prank, thanking Musk for 'sending' him Tesla Cybertruck

Earnings: "First Solar Stumbles in Third Quarter, Lowers Outlook" (FSLR)

Long time readers may have noted we did not threaten to bring the Go-Gos out of retirement for a round of our FSLR theme song "We got the Beat." We didn't have any insight as to how the quarter would stack up against expectations and have found in these situations it is better for all concerned if we just shut up. So, our lips are sealed.

From Barron's, October 29:

First Solar also lowered its full-year guidance to adjusted earnings of $13.00 to $13.50 a share, from $13 to $14 previously.

....MORE

And more after the conference call though probably not 'til tomorrow.

The stock is down $8.67 (-4.34%) at $191.00 and any after-hours buying enthusiasm is getting smacked down. Here's the press release:

https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/news-details/2024/First-Solar-Inc.-Announces-Third-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results/

And some numbers in tabular form. (1 page PDF)

Valero Could Be Next To Shutter California Oil Refineries

Following on October 19's "Oil company Phillips 66 says it will shut down Los Angeles-area refinery" (PSX) we see this at OilPrice, October 24:

Last week, Phillips 66 said it would shut down its Los Angeles oil refinery by the end of next year. Now, refining peer Valero Energy Corp is suggesting it could be next.

Valero, the United States’ second-largest refiner by capacity, is keeping all options “on the table” for its two California refineries. According to the company’s Chief Executive Lane Riggs, this is due to the increasing regulatory pressure that has pervaded California.

Oil refiners in California saw lower-than-average margins in late spring/early summer this year as lower operating capacity failed to deliver higher margins. According to the EIA, this is because refiners increased their existing capacity utilization rates.

Despite the lower margins, California boasts the most expensive gasoline in the United States—a condition that the California Governor’s Office blames on refiners. In an attempt to hold refiners accountable, the Office has threatened to penalize them for price gouging.

California, however, has the highest excise duty on gasoline of all the states....

....MUCH MORE

If everyone could switch to low-cost electric vehicles it wouldn't be a problem but they can't.

And sometimes during the summer California's electrical supply is less reliable than Venezuela's:

• "'We've returned to the Middle Ages' – life in Venezuela's blackout"
• "Venezuela energy crisis: President tells women to stop using hairdryers and go with 'natural' style to save electricity"
• Second Blackout: "'Horror, fear, despair': Venezuela's oil capital shattered by 'tsunami' of violent looting"  

If interested see also ""New California Bill Will Pay Residents $1,000 for Not Owning a Car"
This ties in to our operating thesis that the goal is not to replace internal combustion engine vehicles but to herd people to public transit....

In other words: "Hop on the bus, Gus," "Make a new plan, Stan...."(apologies to transit planner Paul Simon)

I should have added "Drop off the key, Lee"

"....a group of students performed one of the most important rocket tests in the history of European rocketry"

Wernher Magnus Maximilian Freiherr von Braun (and his gang) might have had some thoughts on that statement but he's dead. And the students did something remarkable.

From Interesting Engineering, October 24: 

How a slice of cheese almost derailed Europe’s most important rocket test
“Yes, it was indeed Gruyère cheese, and it almost caused a disaster!” acknowledged GSP president Jérémy Marciacq.

A team of students made history this month by performing Europe’s first rocket hop test.

Those who have followed SpaceX’s trajectory will know hop tests are a vital stepping stone for a reusable rocket program, as they allow engineers to test their rocket’s landing capabilities.

Impressively, no private company or space agency in Europe had ever performed a rocket hop test before. Essentially, a group of students performed one of the most important rocket tests in the history of European rocketry. 

However, the remarkable nature of this story doesn’t end there. Amazingly, the whole thing was almost derailed by a piece of cheese....

....MUCH MORE

Now, if we could hook them up with the scientists at CERN we'd be well on our way to lunch:

Baguette breaks Large Hadron Collider (End of the Universe Puts Trade Down)

Watch Out For The Mindfulness Meditation People

From The Conversation via ScienceAlert, October 25:

Meditation And Mindfulness Have a Dark Side We Don't Talk About

Since mindfulness is something you can practice at home for free, it often sounds like the perfect tonic for stress and mental health issues.

Mindfulness is a type of Buddhist-based meditation in which you focus on being aware of what you're sensing, thinking, and feeling in the present moment.

The first recorded evidence for this, found in India, is over 1,500 years old. The Dharmatrāta Meditation Scripture, written by a community of Buddhists, describes various practices and includes reports of symptoms of depression and anxiety that can occur after meditation.

It also details cognitive anomalies associated with episodes of psychosis, dissociation, and depersonalisation (when people feel the world is "unreal").

In the past eight years there has been a surge of scientific research in this area. These studies show that adverse effects are not rare.

A 2022 study, using a sample of 953 people in the US who meditated regularly, showed that over 10 percent of participants experienced adverse effects which had a significant negative impact on their everyday life and lasted for at least one month.

According to a review of over 40 years of research that was published in 2020, the most common adverse effects are anxiety and depression. These are followed by psychotic or delusional symptoms, dissociation or depersonalisation, and fear or terror....

....MUCH MORE

That doesn't sound at all good. 

Mindfulness, maybe not as peaceful as advertised.

Capital Markets: "Consolidative Tone in FX Ahead of Key Events and Data"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: A consolidative tone is emerging in the foreign exchange market as the week's key events begin tomorrow:  UK budget, eurozone and US Q3 GDP, and the US ADP private sector jobs estimate, and quarterly refunding. Outside of the Norwegian krone, which is up nearly 0.5%, the other G10 currencies are largely +/- 0.1%. The yen, Swiss franc, and antipodeans are trading with a slightly heavier bias. Among emerging market currencies, most from the Asia Pacific area, but the Thai baht are lower, while central European currencies are mostly firmer. The Mexican peso's 0.3% gain puts it on top of the emerging market currencies, after it settled softly yesterday.

Stocks are firmer and bonds are softer. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region, except China and Taiwan rose today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen for the past four weeks. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 0.30%, its second day of gains. US index futures are firm. European benchmark 10-year yields are 2-4 bp higher. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up about two basis points to 4.30%. Between bills and coupons, the US Treasury will sell more than $200 bln of paper. The absorption may be less disruptive that the large settlement on Thursday. Gold is firm but continues to trade within the range set in the middle of last week when the record high was seen (~$2758.50). After gapping lower yesterday, December WTI is consolidating near the lows. So far, today's range is roughly $67.20-$68.10....

....MUCH MORE

"10-year Treasury yields rise above 4.3% ahead of inflation and jobs data"

Equity investors are going to want to see the ascent of rates halt very soon lest all the discounted present value calculations start to imply the cash flows they see ten years out aren't worth nearly as much as they were at the beginning of October. 

From MarketWatch, October 29:

Benchmark bond yields rose early Tuesday, registering their highest levels since July, partly in response to recent better-than-expected U.S. economic data and concerns about revived inflationary pressures should Donald Trump win next week’s election.

What’s driving markets
Treasury yields are hitting fresh three-month highs above 4.30% as traders steel themselves to navigate several days replete with potentially weighty market catalysts.

The ICE BoAML MOVE index, a gauge of expected Treasury market volatility has climbed to 130.9, its highest for the year, as nerves build ahead of the November 5 U.S. election, which will impact thinking on the burgeoning fiscal deficit.

“The recent Treasury sell-off also likely incorporates the increased probability of a Republican clean sweep, and potentially unconstrained fiscal power,” said Jim Reid, strategist at Deutsche Bank.

Investors are also wary ahead of some updates on inflation and the health of the U.S. labor market this week.....

....MUCH MORE

There's a lot more going on here that just the Presidential and Congressional elections:

"...the Treasury expects to raise $823 billion in new debt in the first calendar quarter of 2025"

—ZeroHedge - Treasury Trims Debt Estimates For Current Quarter, But Q1 Borrowing Surge To Follow

How to Write A Booker Prizewinning Novel In Four Weeks

I've left it a bit late for this year - longlist and shortlist already announced, awards on November 12 - but if one is ambitious the book could be written by December 1, published and ready for the 2025 awards before the year-end Holidays.

Originally posted in 2017 when Man Group plc was still sponsoring the prizes.

How to Write A Booker Prizewinning Novel In Four Weeks 

And maybe set yourself up for a Nobel in Literature as well.

Kazuo Ishiguro

Saturday 6 December 2014 04.00 EST

...Until that point, since giving up the day job five years earlier, I’d managed reasonably well to maintain a steady rhythm of work and productivity. But my first flurry of public success following my second novel had brought with it many distractions. Potentially career-enhancing proposals, dinner and party invitations, alluring foreign trips and mountains of mail had all but put an end to my “proper” work. I’d written an opening chapter to a new novel the previous summer, but now, almost a year later, I was no further forward.

So [my wife] Lorna and I came up with a plan. I would, for a four-week period, ruthlessly clear my diary and go on what we somewhat mysteriously called a “Crash”. During the Crash, I would do nothing but write from 9am to 10.30pm, Monday through Saturday. I’d get one hour off for lunch and two for dinner. I’d not see, let alone answer, any mail, and would not go near the phone. No one would come to the house. Lorna, despite her own busy schedule, would for this period do my share of the cooking and housework. In this way, so we hoped, I’d not only complete more work quantitively, but reach a mental state in which my fictional world was more real to me than the actual one. ...

This, fundamentally, was how The Remains of the Day was written. Throughout the Crash, I wrote free-hand, not caring about the style or if something I wrote in the afternoon contradicted something I’d established in the story that morning. The priority was simply to get the ideas surfacing and growing. Awful sentences, hideous dialogue, scenes that went nowhere – I let them remain and ploughed on. ...

I kept it up for the four weeks, and at the end of it I had more or less the entire novel down: though of course a lot more time would be required to write it all up properly, the vital imaginative breakthroughs had all come during the Crash.

I should say that by the time I embarked on the Crash, I’d consumed a substantial amount of “research”: books by and about British servants, about politics and foreign policy between the wars, many pamphlets and essays from the time, including one by Harold Laski on “The Dangers of Being a Gentleman”. I’d raided the second-hand shelves of the local bookshop (Kirkdale Books, still a thriving independent) for guides to the English countryside from the 1930s and 50s. The decision when to start the actual writing of a novel – to begin composing the story itself – always seems to me a crucial one. How much should one know before starting on the prose? It’s damaging to start too early, equally so to start too late. I think with Remains I got lucky: the Crash came just at the right point, when I knew just enough....

--Kazuo Ishiguro in The Guardian

Mr. Ishiguro has been nominated for the Man Booker Prize four times and won in 1989 for his novel The Remains of the Day.
On October 5 it was announced he had been awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize in Literature.

HT:The .Plan: A Quasi-Blog

The Booker Prize 2024 ceremony will take place on the evening of Tuesday, November 12 2024 at Old Billingsgate in London and will be broadcast in a special edition of BBC Radio 4’s Front Row. The ceremony will be livestreamed on the Booker Prizes’ YouTube and Instagram channels. The winner will receive £50,000, a trophy named Iris (after winner Iris Murdoch), and can expect their career to be transformed. Each of the shortlisted authors receives £2,500 and a bespoke bound edition of their book. 

—https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2024 

The Great Firewall Of China: Now In Space

From IEEE Spectrum, October 23:

China Extends the "Great Firewall" Into Space
Satellite Internet services are the next frontier for state-sponsored censorship 

Satellite Internet is becoming an increasingly popular way to get online. But new rules from the Chinese government suggest it wants to make sure its version of space-based broadband comes pre-loaded with the nation’s elaborate system of online censorship.

The authoritarian state has long restricted domestic access to online content that it deems illegal or a threat to its form of government. This is done via a system known as “The Great Firewall,” using a range of technologies and tactics to block or limit the ability of citizens to connect to foreign websites and online services, including Google, Facebook, and Snapchat. This is primarily done by monitoring and manipulating Web traffic as it passes through China’s Internet infrastructure.

But satellite Internet services, such as SpaceX’s Starlink, could potentially circumvent these controls by allowing users to connect via satellite to ground stations located outside the country, over which the government has no control. That has prompted the Cyberspace Administration of China to release draft rules that would put restrictions on providers of satellite Internet equipment and services designed to re-establish control.

“The problem that China is struggling with right now is that non-Chinese companies such as SpaceX and their Starlink satellite Internet service dominate the satellite Internet space,” says Jeffrey Knockel, a senior research associate at the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab. “China is trying to pre-empt large numbers of users having access to uncensored information before it becomes too large of a problem for them.”

How Satellite Broadband Could Interface With the Great Firewall
Emerging satellite Internet services provide users with a terminal that can connect wirelessly to large constellations of satellites in low-earth orbit. These satellites then forward the users’ web requests to a ground station that is connected to the terrestrial Internet. The new rules from the CAC mandate that anyone providing satellite Internet equipment or services within the country will have to ensure all data is routed through ground facilities located in China. These would be connected to the country’s domestic Internet infrastructure, ensuring that users’ requests have to pass through the Great Firewall....

....MUCH MORE