Wednesday, July 3, 2024

"IPO watchlist: The climate tech startups most likely to go public"

Some interesting names on the list. We don't do much with IPO's, poor first year returns, book-runners offering too many of the cold ones, too few of the hot ones for shorter-term trades, etc. but the information contained in the offering documents can be treasure in and of itself.

From PitchBook, June 28:

Climate tech startups are having a strong year supported by regulatory tailwinds, high energy prices and investment. But exits remain elusive.

VC-backed climate tech deal value jumped from $2.1 billion to $8 billion quarter-over-quarter in Q1, according to PitchBook data, demonstrating growth in the vertical even putting aside H2 Green Steel‘s blockbuster $5.2 billion round.

However, because of the capital-intensive hardware needs for many companies, the path to commercial scale is longer than that of asset-lite sectors. Correspondingly, exit activity in climate tech has been muted, with total exit value falling more than 50% from 2022 to 2023 to $9.3 billion.

But there are bright spots: stand-out startups like Northvolt and Andreessen Horowitz-backed KoBold Metals have risen rapidly and could gear themselves up for an IPO in the near future.

Not all the buzzy climate tech startups of today will go the distance. “We’re going to have a few outlier winners,” said Katie Rae, managing partner at MIT-backed deep tech fund Engine Ventures, which has backed long-duration energy battery storage developer Form Energy.

Here are 10 venture-backed climate tech companies with a high likelihood of going public. The list was created using PitchBook’s VC Exit Predictor, which calculates exit probability using a machine learning model that is fed historic and real-time data on private company exits....

....MUCH MORE (names, corporate sketches)