A quick note on terminology for normal people who don't obsess about this stuff:
- ENSO = the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
- ENSO Neutral = the ocean surface temperature anomaly in the ENSO 3.4 region is between +0.5°C and -0.5°C.
- El Niño/La Niña conditions exist when the anomaly is greater than (Niño) or less than (Niña) the half-degree cut-off for neutral.
- A full blown El Niño/La Niña is declared when the conditions persist for three overlapping three-month periods i.e. five consecutive months.
First up. from IRI/Columbia Uni. the plume of the forecast runs, March 9:
Two things to note: 1) The CPC consolidated prediction (heavy blue-gray line) does not get above the ENSO neutral range. 2) Even the average of the dynamical models does not get very deep into El Niño territory. That said, because the anomalies are expected to last above the +0.5°C line, it will be a formal El Niño by October.
And from The Hill, March 13:
Even longer term cycles also play a role.
Story at a glance
- La Niña has met its end and we’re currently in the neutral phase of the climate pattern El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
- While we’re expected to stay neutral through at least spring and possibly a good chunk of summer, a switch to El Niño is expected from late summer into fall.
- In the Atlantic, El Niño typically leads to fewer hurricanes, although longer term cycles also play a role.
AUSTIN (KXAN) — As you may have heard by now, La Niña has met its end and we’re currently in the neutral phase of the climate pattern El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
While we’re expected to stay neutral through at least spring and possibly a good chunk of summer, a switch to El Niño is expected from late summer into fall.Atlantic Hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 30. This means it’s likely that quite a bit of Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023 will be spent in an El Niño pattern.
El Niño and hurricanes
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, in which the waters of the eastern Pacific are warmer than normal. Less vertical wind shear in the hurricane development zone west of Mexico typically brings more frequent hurricanes to the eastern Pacific basin.*****However, in the Atlantic, El Niño typically leads to fewer hurricanes. This is largely due to increased vertical wind shear and more stability in the atmosphere. Wind shear is not good for the development or the sustaining of hurricanes as it rips them apart and a more stable atmosphere prevents the lift required for these storms....
