The Disaster That Is American Packaged Food (K; GIS)

Not talking nutrition here, just shareholder wealth destruction.
We've been posting on the profit potential on the short side for the last couple years and things have only gotten worse for the former giants over the last few months:

General Mills

FinViz

Kellogg

FinViz

Yes indeedy, a trend appears to be emerging.
And we are getting some company:

$K selling off into earnings is a tell-tale. The report really doesn’t matter, $K’s earnings are largely a function of accounting gimmicks. pic.twitter.com/TF92mInK4n

— Prescience Point Capital (@PresciencePoint) May 2, 2018

Prescience Point is short Kellogg’s $K. We see 35% downside based on our analysis of the company’s accounting maneuvers, shipping practices, secular trends in the food space, and self-serving management. Read our full report here: https://t.co/vYpKq2P22C

— Prescience Point Capital (@PresciencePoint) April 26, 2018

Previously:
The David Says Eat More Packaged Food (and short the stocks)
Packaged Goods: "...America's Venerable Food Brands Are Struggling"
Nine of the World's Biggest Packaged Food Companies Have Launched Venture Capital Units
"Hungry for Investment: Big Food Races Toward Startups"
Dealflow: "New Investors Flock To Food"
March 2017
M&A In European Food

I'm not sure that consumer packaged goods is the area to be in, at least not in the U.S. and not based on names like Kellogg or General Mills.
For a quarter-century those manufacturers ratcheted prices as though they were tobacco companies but people find it easier to give up their Cheerios than their cigarettes.
The managements milked that approach for pretty much all it was worth so, as operating entities, they aren't all that attractive but someone will decide the only thing left to do is to asset strip or dividend recap the life out of the former cash cows.
Top o'the market to ya.... 

March 2018

Sometimes This Investing Thing Seems Easy: Consumer Packaged Goods Edition (GIS)

But first, a bit-o memento mori:

We're all victims of our own hubris at times. 
—Kevin Spacey

Hubris is one of the great renewable resources. 

—P. J. O'Rourke

Every time I get accustomed to low volatility, like we were towards the end of the Greenspan era, and we think we have all the levers under the control... something erupts to remind us that the idea that anybody is in control of everything is hubris. 

—Lloyd Blankfein 

All via BrainyQuote We've been talking for a while now about what a lousy business consumer packaged goods (ex-Nestlé) has become...