Tuesday, March 4, 2014

"Average small central London flat to cost £36m by 2050, investor predicts"

Okay, I'll bite.
LCP is raising money for one of their funds and garners some headlines with a big number. Pretty savvy.
From The Guardian:

London Central Portfolio launches £100m fund to buy one- and two-bed apartments in capital's most-exclusive districts
Mayfair property
LCP believes property price inflation in prime areas such as Mayfair will continue for many decades to come. 
Photograph: Martin Godwin for the Guardian
The average small central London flat will, by the middle of the century, cost more than £36m to buy, according to projections by one of the biggest investors in 'prime' property in the capital.

Casting aside concerns that the city is already in the grip of an unsustainable property bubble – and that Russian oligarchs will no longer be sheltering their billions in luxury mansions – London Central Portfolio has launched a £100m fund to buy one- and two-bed apartments in the capital's most-exclusive districts. It claims that the property price inflation witnessed over the last four decades in London's prime property areas – which it defines as the areas surrounding Hyde Park, from Notting Hill to Pimlico – will continue for many decades to come.

Hugh Best, LCP investment director, said: "The average price in prime central London is now £1.5m, and has been growing at 9% a year, which we think is firmly sustainable. They have been growing at that level for 40 years and we see no reason for that to change going forward."

At a 9% growth rate, the average £1.5m flat will fetch £6.3m by 2030 and £36m by 2050....MORE
Extrapolating linear growth rates 36 years into the future is probably a sign that a downturn is overdue but as we found out in the dotcom boom, corrections can remain overdue for longer than one might initially think.

Changing gears, one of the smartest quotes on the subject that I've seen recently is something to the effect:
"The greatest risk to London real estate is a reduction of risk elsewhere"
(for max emphasis say the first bit Rooseveltian and the 'elsewhere' Thatcherite.)