Some years the forecasts seem almost as vague as a newspaper horoscope but this year's are a bit meatier, in particular the individual regional forecasts--follow the link..
From Stratfor, December 27, 2016:
2017 Annual Forecast
The convulsions to come in 2017 are the political manifestations of
much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, the trend of
aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with
technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it.
China's economic slowdown and its ongoing evolution compound this
dynamic. At the same time the world is trying to cope with reduced
Chinese demand after decades of record growth, China is also slowly but
surely moving its own economy up the value chain to produce and assemble
many of the inputs it once imported, with the intent of increasingly
selling to itself. All these forces combined will have a dramatic and enduring impact on the global economy and ultimately on the shape of the international system for decades to come.
These long-arching trends
tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the
politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the
political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of
nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the
United States, still the only superpower.
Only, the global superpower is not feeling all that super. In fact,
it's tired. It was roused in 2001 by a devastating attack on its soil,
it overextended itself in wars in the Islamic world, and it now wants to
get back to repairing things at home. Indeed, the main theme of U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that
the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others
to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United
States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.
Barack Obama already set this trend in motion, of course. Under his
presidency, the United States exercised extreme restraint in the Middle
East while trying to focus on longer-term challenges — a strategy that,
at times, worked to Obama's detriment, as evidenced by the rise of the
Islamic State. The main difference between the Obama doctrine and the beginnings of the Trump doctrine
is that Obama still believed in collective security and trade as
mechanisms to maintain global order; Trump believes the institutions
that govern international relations are at best flawed and at worst
constrictive of U.S. interests.
No matter the approach, retrenchment is easier said than done for a
global superpower. As Woodrow Wilson said, "Americans are participants,
like it or not, in the life of the world." The words of America's icon
of idealism ring true even as realism is tightening its embrace on the world.
Revising trade relationships the way Washington intends to, for
example, may have been feasible a couple decades ago. But that is no
longer tenable in the current and evolving global order where technological advancements in manufacturing
are proceeding apace and where economies, large and small, have been
tightly interlocked in global supply chains. This means that the United
States is not going to be able to make sweeping and sudden changes to
the North American Free Trade Agreement. In fact, even if the trade deal
is renegotiated, North America will still have tighter trade relations
in the long term.
The United States will, however, have more space to selectively
impose trade barriers with China, particularly in the metals sector. And
the risk of a rising trade spat with Beijing will reverberate far and
wide. Washington's willingness to question the "One China" policy
– something it did to extract trade concessions from China – will come
at a cost: Beijing will pull its own trade and security levers that will
inevitably draw the United States into the Pacific theater.
But the timing isn't right for a trade dispute. Trump would rather
focus on matters at home, and Chinese President Xi Jinping would rather
focus on consolidating political power ahead of the 19th Party Congress.
And so economic stability will take priority over reform and
restructuring. This means Beijing will expand credit and state-led
investment, even if those tools are growing duller and raising China's
corporate debt levels to dangerous heights.
This will be a critical year for Europe.
Elections in the pillars of the European Union — France and Germany —
as well as potential elections in the third largest eurozone economy —
Italy — will affect one another and threaten the very existence of the
eurozone. As we have been writing for years, the European Union will
eventually dissolve. The question for 2017 is to what degree these
elections expedite its dissolution. Whether moderates or extremists
claim victory in 2017, Europe will still be hurtling toward a breakup
into regional blocs.
European divisions will present a golden opportunity for the
Russians. Russia will be able to crack European unity on sanctions in
2017 and will have more room to consolidate influence in its
borderlands. The Trump administration may also be more amenable to
easing sanctions and to some cooperation in Syria as it tries to
de-escalate the conflict with Moscow. But there will be limits to the
reconciliation. Russia will continue to bolster its defenses and create
leverage in multiple theaters, from cyberspace to the Middle East. The
United States, for its part, will continue to try to contain Russian
expansion.
As part of that strategy, Russia will continue to play spoiler and
peacemaker in the Middle East to bargain with the West. While a Syrian
peace settlement will remain elusive, Russia will keep close to Tehran
as U.S.-Iran relations deteriorate. The Iran nuclear deal will be
challenged on a number of fronts as Iran enters an election year and as
the incoming U.S. government takes a much more hard-line approach on
Iran. Still, mutual interests will keep the framework of the deal in
place and will discourage either side from clashing in places such as
the Strait of Hormuz.
The competition between Iran and Turkey will meanwhile escalate in
northern Syria and in northern Iraq. Turkey will focus on establishing its sphere of influence
and containing Kurdish separatism while Iran tries to defend its own
sphere of influence. As military operations degrade the Islamic State in
2017, the ensuing scramble for territory, resources and influence will
intensify among the local and regional stakeholders. But as the Islamic
State weakens militarily, it will employ insurgent and terrorist tactics
and encourage resourceful grassroots attacks abroad....MUCH MORE
Last year's wasn't bad either, for comparison, here's our 2016 linkpost:
Stratfor's Annual Forecast 2016
From Stratfor, Dec. 28, 2015:
2016: GLOBAL TRENDS
With old geopolitical realities resurfacing across Eurasia and
commodity prices stuck in a slump, 2016 is shaping up to be an
unsettling year for much of the world.
A logical place to begin is the country that bridges Europe and Asia:
Turkey. This is the year when Turkey, nervous but more politically
coherent than it was last year, will likely make a military move into
northern Syria while trying to enlarge its footprint in northern Iraq.
Turkey will not only confront the Islamic State but will also keep
Kurdish expansion in check as it raises the stakes in its confrontations
with its old rivals, Russia and Iran.
The last thing Russia wants is a confrontation with Turkey, the
gatekeeper to the Black and Mediterranean seas, but confrontation is
something it cannot avoid. Russia risks mission creep this year as it
increases its involvement on the Syrian battlefield. But the Islamic
State will be only part of Moscow's focus in Syria; Russia will try to
draw the United States toward a compromise that would slow a Western
push into Russia's former Soviet space. The United States will be
willing to negotiate on tactical issues, but it will deny Moscow the
leverage it seeks by linking counterterrorism cooperation to a broader
strategic discussion. The U.S. administration will work instead to shore
up European allies on the front lines with Russia.
Regardless of the participants' secondary motives, an intensified
military campaign against the Islamic State will surely damage the
militant group's core. However, the fledgling caliphate will not be
eradicated this year...MORE
Forecasts by Region
Sub-Saharan Africa
2016 could be a year change, at least nominal change, in Africa as
the tenures of several leaders and ruling parties potentially end.
Energy development will meanwhile progress slowly
