From Marc to Market:
The US dollar is bid and pushing against some resistance levels ahead of flurry of central bank talk at the ECB conference in Sintra, which includes the new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh. The talks are set to begin around 9:00 AM ET. Given his reluctance to provide forward guidance at his first press conference last month, it seems unreasonable to expect more today. Still, due to Friday’s holiday, June US nonfarm payrolls will be reported tomorrow and the median forecast of 110-115k would be consistent with a recovery from last year’s average of about 10k.
Meanwhile, August WTI and September Brent have made marginal new lows since March today, but benchmark 10-year yields are firmer. Although the offshore yuan is consolidating with a softer bias, the PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at a new four-year low today. The greenback has extended its gains to new 40-year highs against the yen, while Japanese officials tout their preparedness to act and the close communications with the US. Still, intervention ahead of the US employment report seems minimal....
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