Sunday, January 12, 2025

"China Boosts Yuan Support With Warning, Capital Control Tweaks"

This story says the yuan is trading near an all time low vs the dollar but I don't know if that's true. From TradingView:

 Chart Image

From Bloomberg, January 12:

  • PBOC says currency will remain stable at reasonable levels
  • Beijing tweaks rules to allow firms to borrow more overseas

China has ramped up its support for the yuan with a vow to crack down on market disruption and tweaks to its capital controls, after the currency dropped close to a record low against the dollar in offshore trading.

The People’s Bank of China and other regulators pledged to strengthen their management of the foreign-exchange market, deal with any behavior that may disrupt the market and prevent the risk of a large move in the yuan. Beijing will make sure the currency is basically stable at reasonable levels, the central bank said in a statement.

The PBOC also adjusted its rules for cross-border flows on Monday, allowing firms and financial institutions to borrow more from overseas, which may help increase capital inflows and support the yuan. And the central bank issued a daily reference rate at a level much stronger than analysts’ estimates, sending its most forceful signal since April that it intends to stabilize the exchange rate. 

The moves helped the yuan defy a wider selloff among Asian currencies against the greenback on Monday. The offshore yuan was trading around 7.356 per dollar in morning trading, around 0.1% stronger. But the currency is still trading near an all-time low, following a monthslong decline against the greenback.

Monday’s pledges and policy changes underscore the increasing sensitivity of Chinese policymakers to the weakness of the yuan, which is often seen as a gauge of confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. Although a weaker currency would in theory help the economy by boosting exports, Beijing has consistently stressed the importance of a stable yuan — even in the face of a blistering dollar rally....

*****

....Tight Grip
The escalation of the PBOC’s battle against yuan bears suggests China is not yet ready to let go of its tight grip on the currency, despite pressure from a yawning interest-rate discount to the US, looming tariff threats and a sluggish local economy. 
 

Chinese officials are worried about disorderly capital outflows that could accompany a selloff of yuan assets, something that could lead to financial instability and derail an already lackluster recovery.

Still, investors expect the PBOC to eventually allow weakness if president-elect Donald Trump slaps higher tariffs on Chinese exports. The Federal Reserve’s caution over future interest-rate cuts amid strong US data at a time when the PBOC is expected to ease its policy further is also pressuring Beijing to give in.

“For now, yuan stability remains a priority,” said Tommy Xie, head of Asia macro research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. However, “in the medium term, the success of this strategy will hinge on economic fundamentals,” he said....