Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Capital Markets: "Yen Jumps as Ueda Says Rate Hike Being Considered and Soft CPI Helps UK Gilts"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: The US dollar is little changed the G10 currencies but softer. Comments by Bank of Japan Governor Ueda underscored that this month's meeting is live, and this sent the yen to its best level since January 6. The UK reported softer than expected consumer prices, but the timing of the data collection may have skewed the report. Still, sterling is firm, and UK Gilts have rallied. Today's North American focus is on the CPI. While yesterday's PPI came in slightly softer than expected, the components that feed into the PCE deflator were firm.

Equities are mostly higher, though in Asia Pacific, they were more mixed, with China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia posting losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is trying to end a three-day slide. US index futures are firm. European benchmark 10-year yields are mostly 3-5 bp lower, with the UK Gilts doing best with an eight basis point pullback. The 10-year US Treasury yield is a couple basis points softer at 4.77%. Gold is approaching this week's high set Monday near $2695. The high for the year was set before the weekend near $2698. The yellow metal has not been above $2700 since December 12. The strong momentum in crude oil this year stalled on Monday with February WTI slightly above $79.25. It is consolidating after retreating to about $77.25 today.

USD: It is hard to believe that last week's December jobs data or yesterday's PPI, or even today's CPI will have much impact on the Fed's decisions, say in the second half of the year. Still, market participants believe....

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