From The Barents Observer
After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent halt in cooperation with the other Arctic states, Russia has turned east and south for new partners. At the same time, Russia is messaging actively that the Arctic Council without Russia is illegitimate. What is Russia’s posture in Arctic affairs in the new era of growing instability and geopolitical tensions? And how does China – Russia’s primary choice among potential new partners – react to Russia’s invitations?
Russia went into the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 while holding the chairship of the Arctic Council. Despite growing concern among neighboring Arctic states about Russia’s authoritarian development, some still express hopes for a cooperative Russia in the Arctic. These hopes have been fed not least by official statements from Russia’s Senior Arctic Official Nikolay Korchunov and Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasizing the Arctic as a zone of peace, which in turn has produced continued mutual reassurances among Arctic states about “Arctic exceptionalism”, that the far north can be insulated from security concerns elsewhere.
These prospects are, however, gloomy. As the seven other member states of the Arctic Council released a joint statement in early March 2022 to “pause” Council activities and then in June decided to resume activities on a limited scale among the seven Western Council members, Russia’s chairship was spent on conducting a purely domestic agenda. In consequence, very little policy of substance came out of Moscow. The conclusion is that Arctic priorities were put aside by Russia’s ambitions to seize Ukraine and challenge what the Kremlin sees as a unipolar world order dominated by the United States.
Nonetheless, Russia’s posture in Arctic affairs over the last two years indicates that the Kremlin is seriously concerned by the new situation and communicating actively to strengthen its position.
Moscow’s messaging about the Arctic
The first message from Russia is simple, and it is not new: It emphasizes that Russia is not just one of the eight Arctic states – it is the Arctic State, and it is so, the argument goes, by way of its vast Arctic territories that hold enormous natural resources, a considerable population, and major infrastructure. Russia’s self-perception as a great power in world politics very much relies on the Arctic dimension of the state – which is perceived as a region naturally dominated by Russia, due to geographical facts and longstanding historical developments.Following this, a main narrative from Russia on the Arctic over the last two years has been that Russia is the only responsible Arctic player – socially, economically, and environmentally. The Putin regime has based this assumption on firstly the Western decision to put Russia on the sideline will result in increased tensions and problems that will have highly negative consequences for the Western Arctic states – but not for Russia. Secondly, Russian authorities have consistently argued that it is the United States, aided by NATO, which has upset the strategic order of the Arctic by militarizing the region and “forcing” Finland and Sweden into the alliance in the name of containment. Some months back, there were even statements that Russia might leave the Arctic Council and form new alliances to continue its Arctic agenda without the Western Arctic states. This message was followed by a narrative from the Russian Arctic expert community of the Arctic Council without Russia as illegitimate.
Turning east and south
Russia’s messaging about leaving the Arctic Council disappeared last year, as Norway took over the chairship and adopted a strategy of including Russia on Council’s Working Group level, only to resurface again as of February this year. Simultaneously, Russia has continued to look east and south, inviting China to invest in Arctic infrastructure and welcoming India and the Gulf Region into the buyer’s market on Russian oil and gas. Russian authorities have also published plans to develop joint Arctic research with members of the BRICS, a grouping which includes China and India, and had expanded in January of this year to include petro-economies Iran and the United Arab Emirates, (Saudi Arabia is also a candidate, but has yet to confirm). Russian northern institutions – from universities to state administrative bodies and businesses – are inviting Chinese delegations and organizing Sino-Russian events....
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