Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Reuters Exclusive: "Miners seek partners for copper assets as M&A heats up"

It takes 10+ years to bring a copper deposit into production and with big geopolitical (expropriation) and political risk—see our first inductee into the Climateer Hall of Fame:

...Finally for investors in rent-seeking organizations there is the real risk that the politicians will change the rules. Heed the words of Sen. Simon Cameron (R&D!-Pa.):

"The honest politician is one who when he is bought,
will stay bought."
Simon Cameron

Our Hero

Combined with the age-old commodity risk, that of substitution—in this case aluminum for many of the wiring/cabling uses (except in housing) that copper is now used for.

It is no wonder that the miners, as with the oil and gas companies (stranded assets, etc.) have gone on something of a CapEx strike.

From Reuters via Yahoo Finance, October 11:

A flurry of copper mining deals are being lined up for the next six to 12 months, industry sources said, as producers seek to spread the soaring cost of new projects for the metal key to the energy transition.

The capital needed to develop new mines has shot up some 50% to between $3 billion-$4 billion on average in recent years, fuelled by declining ore grades, stricter environmental requirements and rising labour costs.

Copper producers increasingly want to share the risk and costs of projects, and the sector has already seen a jump in M&A activity, which more than doubled year-on-year to $14.24 billion in 2022.

But big-ticket M&A is not the only solution to rising costs, and partnership deals are also being mooted, five sources familiar with the matter said.

For investors interested in the green transition, that would allow them to own a portion of existing assets and revenues at a time when large reserves of top-grade material are hard to find.

Miner and trader Glencore has been approached by potential investors in its Argentine copper projects Minera Agua Rica Alumbrera (Mara) and El Pachon, two sources said....

....MUCH MORE

Very related October 5:
"Drilling for Oil on the NYSE"

which was quickly followed by:
Drilling For Oil On The NYSE, Pt. II: Exxon In Talks To Buy Pioneer In $60 Billion Megadeal (XOM; PXD)

You usually have to wait longer than a few hours for a real-life validation of an investment thesis but sometimes not.