Saturday, November 25, 2017

"Dollar threatened by six years of weakness - Morgan Stanley "

The story is from RT so it's probably just Russian dezinformatsiya , or maybe that's what they want us to think and it's actually true but in diving down that rabbit hole we may be approaching the 'wilderness of mirrors'* where we become contrarian to the contrarians.

And that way lies madness.
But it might be profitable.

From Russia Today, Nov. 18:
One of the world’s leading financial services companies Morgan Stanley has predicted six years of weakness for the US dollar amid strong global growth, which may eclipse any positive influence from interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve.

“The dollar has topped out in January this year, and we are very likely to look into a dollar weakening trend for the next six years to come. The key driver for the US dollar is not rate expectations, but how the global economy is performing and what is the global demand for funding,”
Morgan Stanley’s chief global currency strategist Hans Redeker told Bloomberg.

The analyst recommends investors to short the dollar against the euro and currencies of emerging markets as growth gathers momentum. The dollar’s rally against the yen will halt at 117 in the first quarter before it drops below 108 by the end of next year, said Redeker.

The firm is making its forecast as investors’ attention to the dollar reflation trade is growing while US tax reforms have achieved some progress and the Fed has determined to gradually raise rates. A potential hike in December along with three more in 2018 would have only “tactical impact” on the US currency, according to the analyst.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has climbed 3.8 percent since dropping to a more-than-two-year low in September. It is still down by more than seven percent this year....MORE
*Attributed to James Jesus Angleton when he was the Chief of U.S. counterintelligence at the CIA and attempting to discern which of two Soviet spies, Golitsyn or Nosenko was telling the truth.
Angleton ended up pretty much certifiable.

Plus, the term, meaning 'nothing is as it seems', was actually lifted from T.S. Elliot's 1920 poem Gerontion:

...These with a thousand small deliberations
Protract the profit of their chilled delirium,
Excite the membrane, when the sense has cooled,
With pungent sauces, multiply variety
In a wilderness of mirrors. What will the spider do,
Suspend its operations...

So that's that.
Or is it?