Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Chartology: Monster “Mega-Phone” pattern breakout near?

You have to be careful with this stuff.
Humans are pattern-recognizing machines and are so good at it that we can see patterns that don't even exist.* In the instant case you really have to beware of imputing meaning to lines on charts; the reason technical analysis has any validity at all is because of "market memory" one example of which is resistance to upmoves caused by prior investors waiting to "get even and get out" and supplying stock to the market.
(one of the reasons to like new highs, no overhead supply)

In these long term chart there is no market memory, for example there are very few people with positions established at the Aug. 24, 1987 2722 DJIA high which is used as the basis of one of the trendlines shown here. From Kimble Charting Solutions:
Over the past 14-years, the Dow looks to be creating a rather large mega-phone pattern. The rally over the past 18-months has brought the Dow to the top of the pattern in the left chart above. 

Both charts reflect that the Dow is facing long-term resistance with monthly momentum reaching fairly lofty levels, where it has run out of steam in the past!

What the Dow does at the top of the mega-phone pattern should have much to do with where the Dow is at the end of this year....MORE
*On the other hand here's an example of what incisive pattern recognition can accomplish. This chart is from early June 2007 and foresaw what was coming:
Technical Analysis: S&P Black Swan Formation
"The very rare black swan formation - note both feet and neck are complete and the rare vampire tooth variation is in place.  This is very bad. Very very bad."...