Deflation Probabilities
Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets, described in a technical appendix, this weekly report provides two measures of the probability of consumer price index (CPI) deflation through 2018.
Deflation Probabilities Tick Up
June 6, 2013
One measure of the probability of deflation for the 2013–18 period was 4 percent on June 5, up from 0 percent the previous week. The 2012–17 deflation probability ticked up from 0 percent to 1 percent.
Prices of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2013 or the five-year period starting in early 2012....MORE
We've swung by the Atlanta Fed's Inflation Project a few times over the last three years but should probably start visiting monthly.
May 2013
Atlanta Fed: Deflation Probabilities
August 2012
Atlanta Fed: "Deflation Probabilities on Our Radar Screen"
July 2010
Atlanta Fed: "How close to deflation are we? Perhaps just a little closer than you thought"
The Atlanta Fed is also home to Paul Krugman's favorite inflation measure, sticky prices and to MacroBlog.
