Friday, March 30, 2012

Corn Stockpiles at 8-Year Low, Planting Intentions at 75-Year High, Who Wins? (hint: long ain't wrong)

Corn up .352 at 6.392, Soybeans up .55 at 14.104, Wheat up .316 at 6.442.
Big moves.
First up, BusinessWeek:
Corn Stockpiles Fall to 8-Year Low; Wheat Supply Drops
Corn inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter, were down 7.9 percent on March 1 from a year earlier, the government said. Wheat supplies fell 16 percent, while soybeans reserves rose.
Corn stockpiles on March 1 totaled 6.009 billion bushels, down from 6.523 billion a year earlier and the lowest for that time of year since 2004, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey expected 6.16 billion, on average.

“It’s going to be a tight supply situation until farmers begin harvesting this year’s crops,” Marty Foreman, an economist for Doane Advisory Services Co. in St. Louis, said before the report. “We still need to grow a good crop this year to rebuild inventories.”

Before today, corn futures tumbled 11 percent since reaching a five-month high on March 19 on the Chicago Board of Trade, partly on concern that USDA would report a higher inventory estimate than analysts expected....MORE
And from Agrimoney:

US corn plantings to hit 75-year high

US farmers intend to plant the biggest corn acreage since the year Picasso painted Guernica and George Gershwin died, lured by strong returns - and at the expense of soybeans and wheat.
The data sent soybeans to a six-month high in Chicago, while spring wheat soared 5.0% in opening deals in Minneapolis.
US growers are to plant 95.9m acres with corn this year, an area bigger than Japan, and the highest acreage since 1937, the US Department of Agriculture said.
"There is a yellow tsunami coming. This is a huge number of acres," Sal Gilbertie, president of commodity-based exchange traded fund specialist Teucrium Trading, told
Forecasts trounced
The estimate, revealed in a long-awaited sowings report, was far bigger than investors had expected, with analysts predicting a figure of at best 95.6m acres, and potentially as low as 93.5m acres....MORE