Tuesday, September 6, 2011

UPDATED *****Alert***** Société Générale's Albert Edwards Bearish *****Alert***** (Sept. 6, 2011)

UPDATE: "Even More Albert Edwards:"Another Reason You Should Worry About Profits" (Sept. 6; 2011)"
Original post:
We passed a three year anniversary yesterday.
On September 5, 2008 we posted "Meltdown"-Société Générale" which linked to Albert's research note of a couple days earlier:

***Alert****Economic and equity market meltdown imminent****Alert***

A good call.

On September 7, 2008 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into conservatorship.
On September 14, 2008 Merrill Lynch agreed to be acquired by Bank of America.
On September 15 Lehman filed their bankruptcy petition.
On September 16 AIG became a 79.9% subsidiary of the U.S. Treasury.

Within 10 more days the Nation's largest thrift, WaMu was seized and five days later Wachovia gobbled up.

Good times, good times.
Here's the latest via the Financial Times' Adventurous Investor:

It’s a month of make or break for equities
...Only last week I caught up with Albert Edwards, the laconic perma bear from SocGen who’s been consistently warning of a rout in equities, and the S&P 500 index falling towards 400. Is he still bearish? You bet. He thinks we will head down the dismal trail blazed by Japan. Ten year gilt yields will bottom out at 1.5 per cent as we “slip back into a recession which will be worse than the last one, led by a hard landing in China... I can see year on year economic growth in China heading as low as 0 per cent”. Yikes! Given this view, Edward’s remains bullish on bonds and gold, which he can see testing $3,000 an ounce. He concedes that the UK equity market isn’t the most overvalued, but still sees the FTSE 100 retreating by 50 per cent before it becomes a raging buy.... 
I would remind those who dismiss Mr. Edwards as a permabear that both gold and treasury bonds have outperformed equities since the turn of the century.
Plus he's funny.
Nov. 17 
Société Générale's Albert Edwards Upbeat, Almost Chipper: See's Humanity Approaching Broad Sunlit Uplands (Nov. 17, 2010)
Oct. 20, 2010
Société Générale's Albert Edwards: Cry Havoc and Let Slip the...Ah Screw it (Oct. 20, 2010)

"Société Générale's Albert Edwards: 'Equity Investors Are In A Vulcan Death Grip And Are About To Fall Unconscious"' (September 2010)

Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "I Have Been Wrong – I’ve Been Too Bullish" (Jan. 17, 2011)

Société Générale's Albert Edwards: "Many Think I am Mad..." (sub 2% Treasuries, S&P at 400 etc.) May 25, 2011