Friday, April 15, 2011

What History Says About Corn Prices

There are strong similarities between 2010-11 price action and 1995-96. (Chart courtesy of C&S Grain Market Consulting)

Maize is trading at $7.485 down .125.
From DTN's Market Matters blog:

Comparing lead-option corn futures in 2010-11 with those in the rally years of 1995-96 and 2007-08 indicates we could see prices in the mind-$8 range this summer, figures Bill Fordham of C&S Grain Consulting, noting close similarities in the price charts so far. 

The average daily closing price for the year in lead-option corn futures in 1995 was $2.81, and the highest high in 1996 was $5.54 1/2 on July 12, 1996, he said in a recent analysis.
  That is a net increase of 97%. 

The average daily closing price for the year in lead-option corn futures in 2010 was $4.30. "If the money flow continues, a similar type of net increase in nominal prices in 2011 could take lead-option corn futures up into the $8.48 area sometime this year."...MORE
Apr. 1
Corn Surges Again. Daily Limit Expanded to 45 Cents, Ethanol Prices Jump (ADM; PEIX) 
Corn is trading at $7.34750 up $.415 (6%), just under the new 45 cent daily limit.

Apr. 5 
Chart du Jour: Corn Prices Hit 33-Month High...Corn futures for May delivery rose 6.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to settle at $7.6675 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade, the highest closing price on record for a contract closest to expiration. Earlier, the commodity reached $7.7075, the highest since July 3, 2008....

Apr. 7 
Another Big USDA Report Tomorrow; I'm Thinking of Fading Corn on the Release (CORN; DBA; MOO) 
The futures are down 1 3/4 cents at $7.6125 after opening up....My best gut feel (and that's all it is) is that this will be the last positive news for all eternity (or 30 days, which in the pits equals the same time period).This gut-feel is probably informed by three things...

Corn futures are up 8 cents at $7.67. Our thinking yesterday was to fade the release, nothing done yet....