Tuesday, January 27, 2026

"Tesla Earnings Will Be ‘Ugly.’ It Might Not Matter for the Stock." (TSLA)

Following yesterday's $13.86 (-3.09%) hit, the stock is trading up a bit, +$2.19 at $437.39.

Here's Al Root at Barron's, January 27:

Tesla stock rose early Tuesday, ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, earnings that are expected to be, well, not good.

Shares of the electric vehicle maker were up 0.5% at $437.42 in premarket trading, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.2% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down o.5%.

For the quarter, Wall Street is looking for earnings per share of 43 cents from sales of $24.6 billion. A year ago, Tesla reported EPS of 73 cents from sales of $25.7 billion.

Sales are down with EV sales. Tesla delivered about 418,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down from about 496,000 a year ago. The loss of the $7,500 federal purchase tax credit in September pushed sales into the third quarter.

Operating profit margins are expected to be under 5%, down more than one percentage point year over year, hurt partly by falling regulatory credit sales. Tesla can sell zero-emission vehicle credits by producing more than its fair share of zero-emission vehicles. Those credits have been devalued by changes in environmental policies during the second Trump administration.

“It’s going to be very ugly,” said Shay Boloor, chief market strategist at technology research firm Futurum. “Fundamentals make [Tesla] look like a maturing auto business facing pricing pressure and competition.”....

....MUCH MORE 

"Popular music is getting sadder and angstier"

That's probably a good thing for the stock market.*

From The Economist, January 19:

Analyses of top-charting songs find a rise in blue moods 

“DIE WITH a smile” by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars was, by many measures, the song of 2025. The soppy ballad led the charts in more than 30 countries and holds the title of longest-running daily number one on Spotify, a streaming platform. Collaboration between two musical heavyweights goes some way to explaining the song’s success. But its appeal may also owe something to its tone: melancholy is the mood of the moment.

This conclusion comes from examining song lyrics. In analysis for The Economist, MusixMatch, a data firm, gathered lyrics from the Billboard top 100 songs for each week over the past 25 years. Using artificial-intelligence tools, the company assigned moods—such as angst, heartbreak, joy and love—to each track....

.... Positive emotions have not disappeared, as can be seen in the enduring popularity of “love”. But the results suggest that pop has grown gloomier. The share of hits with lyrics invoking “angst” has increased by 13 percentage points in the past two decades. This puts “angst” neck and neck with “heartbreak”, which has also been on the rise, over the past five years. (The categories are not exclusive; many songs about heartbreak are also classed as angsty.) “Despair” also began to increase sharply after 2020. Now a quarter of songs in the top 100 have lyrics that hint at misery—think of moody hits by Billie Eilish and Sam Smith....

....MUCH MORE
*
April 2020 - Recapitulating Ramones: "Song and Stock Volatility

In December 2019, based on research from NYU we proposed* as our new theme song an extremely fast cover of The Ramones "Blitzkreig Bop," in a post which mentioned that we've looked at this paper a few times:

Volume 23, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 70–85

 Philip Maymin, NYU Poly - Department of Finance and Risk Engineering
Popular music may presage market conditions because people contemplating complex future economic behavior prefer simpler music, and vice versa. In comparing the annual average beat variance of the songs in the U.S. Billboard Top 100 since its inception in 1958 through 2007 to the standard deviation of returns of the S&P 500 for the same or the subsequent year, a significant negative correlation is observed. Furthermore, the beat variance appears able to predict future market volatility, producing 2.5 volatility points of profit per year on average.

Highlights

► Popular music may presage market conditions because people contemplating complex future economic behavior prefer simpler music, and vice versa. ► In comparing the annual average beat variance of the songs in the U.S. Billboard Top 100 since its inception in 1958 through 2007 to the standard deviation of returns of the S&P 500 for the same or the subsequent year, a significant negative correlation is observed. ► Furthermore, the beat variance appears able to predict future market volatility, producing 2.5 volatility points of profit per year on average.

Here's the 29 page PDF 

*"...So, trying to stay ahead of the curve I am going to propose the Ramones Blitzkrieg Bop as our next theme song.
Here's a very fast (200+ beats per minute) cover:"

 

During the Great Unpleasantness of Sept. 2008 - Mar. 2009 our theme song was also from The Ramones, "I Wanna Be Sedated". The tempo is 163 - 165 beats per minute, putting it somewhere between  allegro vivace and presto (lively and fast to very, very fast)

Holocaust Remembrance Day, 2026

When Jews say "Never again", believe them.

Those are Israeli F-15's flying over the site of the German death camp, Auschwitz, at Oświęcim Poland, September 4, 2003. 
The Israelis had been invited to an air show commemorating the 85th anniversary of the founding of the Polish air force.

That determination sets up what could be an almost unimaginable orgy of death, far beyond the hyperintense kill rates of 1942.*

June 2024
"War Between Israel and Iran Is Inevitable"
Just as the Jews mean it when they say "Never again," The Iranians mean it when they say they will destroy, annihilate, eradicate Israel. Some examples after the jump....

*****

....Inevitable.

The last shot will be fired from one of the Israeli submarines, destroying Tehran.

But before that another six million Jews will die and Israel will have ceased to exist.
*From an April 2021 post, "If I Sleep For An Hour Thirty People Will Die":

I was asked why there was no April 15 post noting the 1500 people who died in the 1912 sinking of the Titanic.

The reason was, I was thinking of the April 16 sinking of the MV Goya in 1945 with the loss of ~6500 - 7000 lives, making it the second deadliest maritime disaster in history, second only to the 9300 souls, half of them children, lost when the Wilhelm Gustloff was sunk eleven weeks earlier.

So why didn't I post anything on the MV Goya?

Because fully 25% percent of the Jews killed in the six years of World War II, 1.47 million people, were killed in one bestial ~100 day period: August, September, and October, of 1942. 445,700 murders per month. What the Holocaust scholars refer to as Hyperintense Kill Rates.

And sometimes you can only take so much of the death and destruction before losing it.

Two Goya's per day for three months.

Ten Titanic's per day, every day for 100 days.

So instead we will tell the story of two forgers.....

"Goldman Sachs CIO: 7 Ways A.I. Will Reshape the Global Economy in 2026"

From Observer, January 26:

A.I. models are becoming operating systems, agents and economic infrastructure, says Goldman Sachs CIO Marco Argenti. 2026 will be pivotal. 

A.I. models are becoming more than just chatbots—an important step in their evolution that will have repercussions for the global economy in 2026 and beyond, says Marco Argenti, Goldman Sachs’ chief information officer. 

“In my 40 years in technology, 2025 saw the biggest changes I have seen in my career,” Argenti says. “And what’s crazy is we haven’t seen anything yet—in fact, I predict 2026 will be an even bigger year for change.”

A.I. has emerged as a critical driver for financial markets and potentially for the broader economy. Wall Street analysts, who have consistently underestimated the amount of investment going into A.I., expect the largest hyperscale cloud computing companies to pour more than half a trillion dollars into capital expenditures in 2026. The seven biggest tech companies now account for more than 30 percent of the S&P 500’s market capitalization and roughly one quarter of the index’s earnings, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

Argenti, the former vice president of technology of Amazon Web Services (AWS), says A.I. is rewiring everything from the traditional workforce to the traditional software stack.

He makes seven predictions about how A.I. could evolve in the near future:

A.I. models will be the new operating system 
The traditional paradigm for software engineering is changing: Rather than functioning as one-dimensional applications, A.I. models are becoming operating systems that independently access tools in order to perform tasks.

In turn, computing is evolving from static, hard-coded logic to outcome-based assistants that reprogram themselves. This makes A.I. agents much more capable of handling complex problems. As a result, those who own the models will own the new operating systems that power A.I. agents. 

Context is the new frontier 
A.I. engineers’ focus will shift from building “larger models” to “better memory.” Think of it this way: The models have been built from vast pools of data—they’ve scoured essentially the entire internet and then some in the form of synthetic data for model-training purposes. However, the immediate context available to models—what they remember from previous discussions and tasks—is relatively tiny. Already, some newer models are able to reason and inject much larger contexts into processes to provide far more bespoke, customized responses.  

The rise of the personal agent
A.I. personal agents will arrive, which is something companies have been chasing with varying degrees of success. What we do now with apps—manually, and in piecemeal fashion—will be done automatically soon. For example, if a flight is cancelled because of the weather, an AI agent will know to rebook the flight, reschedule meetings, and order food for afterwards (since restaurants will be closed). This is very possible with AI with agentic capabilities. 
The agent-as-a-service economy...
....MUCH MORE

Big Money: "Micron commits $24B to Singapore as AI memory crunch bites" (MU)

From The Tech Buzz, January 27:

Chipmaker's massive expansion targets NAND shortages amid soaring AI demand 

  • Micron commits $24 billion to expand NAND chip production in Singapore, with manufacturing set to begin in second half of 2028
  • The expansion adds 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space and 1,600 jobs as AI-driven demand for memory chips outpaces supply
  • Memory shortages are expected to last through late 2027 as chipmakers prioritize high-bandwidth memory over conventional NAND and DRAM
  • Micron shares jumped 3% in after-hours trading as the company positions Singapore as a critical manufacturing hub alongside its $7B HBM facility

Micron Technology just placed a $24 billion bet on Singapore, announcing a massive expansion that signals how desperate the memory chip industry has become. The American chipmaker's commitment to add 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space at its existing NAND complex comes as global memory shortages threaten to choke off the AI boom. Production won't start until late 2028, but the investment shows how manufacturers are scrambling to address supply constraints that analysts expect will persist through 2027.

Micron Technology is pouring $24 billion into Singapore, making one of the largest single investments in memory chip manufacturing as the industry races to catch up with AI-fueled demand that's creating shortages across the board.

The Idaho-based chipmaker announced Tuesday it will add 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space to its existing NAND manufacturing complex in Singapore. These highly controlled environments, designed to prevent even microscopic contamination, will start producing NAND flash memory chips in the second half of 2028. The timeline matters - it means relief from current shortages is still years away, even as companies scramble for supply today.

NAND technology, the type of memory chip found in everything from smartphones to data center servers, has seen demand skyrocket in recent months. The culprit? The rapid expansion of AI applications and data-heavy workloads that require massive amounts of storage. According to industry estimates, these shortfalls won't ease until late 2027, creating a pressure cooker situation for tech companies dependent on steady chip supplies....

....MUCH MORE 

In early pre-market action the stock is up $16.01(+4.11%) at $405.10

"These are the European startups Nvidia backed in 2025, as it ramped up investing in the continent’s AI companies" (NVDA)

From CNBC, January 26:

  • In 2025, Nvidia hugely upped its investments in European tech companies, taking part in 14 funding rounds, compared to seven in 2024.
  • The chip giant invested in leading European startups, including Mistral, Revolut and Lovable.
  • The investments “mirror its broader, global strategy of taking its excess cash and reinvesting in the AI ecosystem across a host of startups,” an analyst told CNBC. 

Nvidia has become something of an AI kingmaker as hyperscalers rush to build out AI capacity. It’s also got cash to burn and has ratcheted up its investments in European startups.

Last year, Nvidia participated in 14 rounds for European tech companies, according to deal-counting platform Dealroom, compared to seven in 2024, five in 2023, one in 2022 and none in 2021 or 2020.

The 14 European investments were among the 86 startup rounds it invested in globally that year. 

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108252128-1768378877210-Screenshot_2026-01-14_082044.png?v=1768378929&ffmt=webp&vtcrop=y

Nvidia has been on a charm offensive within the industry as it looks to deepen its ties to some of the world’s most promising companies, offering technical expertise and supply chain assistance, alongside hard cash.

The trend has continued in 2026, with British AI startup Synthesia announcing on Monday that Nvidia had participated in the company’s $200 million Series E.

The chip giant’s spending spree is part of a wider push to deepen its ties to the world’s most promising startups as it looks to consolidate its position as AI leader. 

“Nvidia’s investments in European AI firms appear to mirror its broader, global strategy of taking its excess cash and reinvesting in the AI ecosystem across a host of startups,” Brian Colello, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, told CNBC.

These are all the European tech companies Nvidia, or its venture arm NVentures, invested in last year and the total size of the round it participated in, per Dealroom.

Mistral

Round: 1.7 billion euros, September

One of Europe’s leading AI labs, French startup Mistral is building models aiming to rival those produced by the likes of OpenAI and Google. Before participating in Mistral’s 1.7 billion euro Series C funding round in September, which valued the company at 11.7 billion euros ($13.6 billion), the chip giant invested in the AI company’s Series B in 2024. 

Nscale

Rounds: $1.1 billion, September and $433 million, October

Nscale, which is building data centers and provides AI cloud computing services, courted Nvidia throughout 2025, with the chip giant’s CEO, Jensen Huang, announcing in September it would invest £500 million into the company. The UK-based startup promptly announced two rounds, both featuring Nvidia, at the end of September and the start of October. 

Quantinuum

Round: $600 million, September

Quantum computing company Quantinuum announced a fresh funding round, backed by Nvidia, in September which saw it valued at $10 billion. The raise will support continued progress toward the upcoming launch of the company’s next-generation quantum computing system Helios....

....MUCH MORE 

"French AI firm Mistral predicts revenue of €1 billion in 2026"

From LeMonde and AFP, January 22:

The head of the French artificial intelligence company said Thursday that earnings were expected to pass the symbolic billion-euro threshold this year. The projection places Mistral at the forefront of AI in Europe, but far beyond US competitors.  

French generative artificial intelligence developer Mistral should top €1 billion ($1.2 billion) in revenue this year, chief executive Arthur Mensch said Thursday, January 22, at the World Economic Forum in Davos. That level of income would still leave Mistral, one of Europe's leading lights in AI, far behind American competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic, although profitability remains elusive for most of the sector.

"We should cross a billion by the end of the year," Mensch told Bloomberg TV in response to a question about revenue. He added that Mistral will likely spend around the same amount this year on the powerful computer chips and associated infrastructure needed to develop and run AI models. Meanwhile, "we are in the process [of] looking at a few opportunities" for acquisitions, Mensch said, without going into details about business areas or geographical locations.

Mistral raised €1.7 billion in September, bringing aboard Dutch chipmaking technology giant ASML as a key investor. The fundraise valued the company at €11.7 billion, putting it in a leading position in Europe but far short of the price tags in the hundreds of billions on US heavyweights....

....MUCH MORE 

Also at LeMonde:

Peter Thiel comes to Paris to speak about the Antichrist 

Monday, January 26, 2026

"Brutal Cold Puts US Power Grids on Edge in Wake of Storm"

Winter storms will take down wires due to wind and especially ice but it's the cold that pushes the entire system to its limits.

And unfortunately the high-pressure systems that follow the storm mean no wind for the wind turbines and with solar panels covered with snow and that damnable ice, plus natural gas freeze-offs*, capacity gets whacked at the exact time demand spikes.

From Bloomberg via Canada's Financial Post, January 26: 

US power grids are under mounting pressure following a winter storm that unleashed deep cold and heavy snow and ice from Texas to Maine, driving up heating demand and raising the risk of blackouts. 

US power grids are under mounting pressure following a winter storm that unleashed deep cold and heavy snow and ice from Texas to Maine, driving up heating demand and raising the risk of blackouts. 

The storm affected millions of people across the eastern two-thirds of the US, with 813,000 homes and businesses were without electricity as of 11:00 a.m. New York time as snow and ice ravaged local distribution lines, according to PowerOutage.us. More than half of the outages were reported in three states: Tennessee, Mississippi and Louisiana.

So far, power grids have avoided large system-level cuts, but sub-zero temperatures and dangerous wind chills are set to linger all week, testing seasonal power demand records from Texas to New England. Some areas have reported extensive damage to trees and power lines and blocked roads, which could slow electricity restoration, said Nicole Joniak, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc.

“Power may take days to be restored across the hardest hit areas,” she said. “This will be especially dangerous, as temperatures will be well below historical averages across much of the eastern and central United States this week.”

PJM Interconnection — the operator of the largest US grid, which stretches from New Jersey to Illinois — declared a level-1 emergency for Tuesday, which means every power plant that serves the region is required to be ready to run full-tilt.

More than an inch of ice blanketed the Southern Plains and Southeast, including parts of Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina, Joniak said. The northeast had the heaviest snow, with more than 23 inches (58 centimeters) in New Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. In New York City, 11.4 inches fell in Central Park, according to AccuWeather....

....MUCH MORE 
*....“This deep freeze is hurting production, especially for natural gas,” Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn wrote in his daily market commentary. ”Daily output is taking a hit, with losses soaring to as much as 10 billion cubic feet a day at peak times! Even under more moderate scenarios, we’re seeing production drops between 0.2 and 2.5 billion cubic feet per day across the hardest-hit regions, starting around January 20–22 and sticking around through January 31,” Flynn wrote.

The culprit is "freeze-offs" that occur when water or hydrates, produced along with natural gas, freeze and then solidify during periods of extreme cold. They create blockages that disrupt flows from wellheads at the processing facilities where impurities are removed, as well as inside pipelines that supply gas-fired power generation plants and industrial users.

Freeze-offs played a role in a 2021 winter storm in Texas that made headlines for leaving millions of people without power for days. According to a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, freeze-offs caused a 45% drop in Texas natural gas production over a five-day period.

The study found 87% of unplanned outages at electricity generation plants in Texas were due to insufficient supplies of natural gas, caused mostly by freeze-offs at the wellhead where it is produced and at nearby processing plants.

The storm resulted in between $80 billion and $130 billion in financial losses to the Texas economy and killed at least 210 people, according to Glenn Hegar, the state’s comptroller of public accounts, in a report prepared in 2021....

—The Center Square, "Winter weather to disrupt U.S. gas production, increase prices", January 23 

"AI spending frenzy could reshape the economy, Bridgewater CIOs say"

Bridgewater is too big to be nimble and they've never been the same since they tried to clone
Dalio's brain back in '16.

From Reuters via MSN, January 26:

Spending on artificial intelligence by large corporations will continue to grow exponentially and reshape the economy, Bridgewater Associates' co-chief investment officers said in a client note on Monday.

AI has emerged as the key driver of global corporate investment and a central force behind the market rally, altering capital spending plans across industries.

A surge in corporate spending across the AI supply chain, from data center infrastructure to chips and power, has helped lift equity markets even as worries grow over a potential market bubble and the boom's sustainability.

"Straightforward game-theoretic calculations make it unacceptable for these companies to accept falling behind rivals by even a few months of progress, so one company’s decision to spend more aggressively on AI capex compels others to follow," the investment firm's co-CIOs Bob Prince, Greg Jensen and Karen Karniol-Tambour wrote.

Global stocks swung sharply in the fall as growing concern over a potential AI stock bubble weighed on sentiment and heightened the risk of a selloff. Still, Wall Street’s main indexes ended 2025 with double-digit gains, buoyed by strong investor demand for AI-linked stocks.

Bridgewater CIOs said a surge in AI capital spending could increase inflation as higher demand pushes up prices of items in its ecosystem, including chips and electricity....

....MORE 

We are seeing more mentions of inflationary effects of the big buildout.

And Ray's brain? 

December 2016 -  Bridgewater, World’s Largest Hedge Fund, Is Building An Algorithmic Model Of Ray Dalio's Brain

January 2017 -  Frederick Taylor and Ray Dalio's Brain: "Working for an Algorithm Might Be an Improvement"

January 2017 -  Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Really Didn't Like The Wall Street Journal Story on His Brain (he's also against fake news) 

October 2025 - "Ray Dalio Has Created an A.I. Clone of Himself to Pass on His Wisdom"

Let's hope this works better than the last one.

"Microsoft unveils Maia 200 AI chip, claiming performance edge over Amazon and Google" (MSFT; AMZN; GOOG; NVDA)

From GeekWire (Seattle, Redmond, Kirkland), January 26: 

Microsoft on Monday announced Maia 200, the second generation of its custom AI chip, claiming it’s the most powerful first-party silicon from any major cloud provider. 

The company says Maia 200 delivers three times the performance of Amazon’s latest Trainium chip on certain benchmarks, and exceeds Google’s most recent tensor processing unit (TPU) on others.

The chip is already running workloads at Microsoft’s data center near Des Moines, Iowa. Microsoft says Maia 200 is powering OpenAI’s GPT-5.2 models, Microsoft 365 Copilot, and internal projects from its Superintelligence team. A second deployment at a data center near Phoenix is planned next.

It’s part of the larger trend among cloud giants to build their own custom silicon for AI rather than rely solely on Nvidia. Google has been refining its TPUs for nearly a decade, and Amazon’s Trainium line is now in its third generation, with a fourth already announced. 

Microsoft first revealed its custom chip ambitions in late 2023, when it unveiled Maia 100 at its Ignite conference. Despite entering the race late, Microsoft makes the case that its tight integration between chips, AI models, and applications like Copilot gives it an edge.... 

....MUCH MORE 

Here's MSFT -  Deep dive into the Maia 200 architecture

Microsoft is up 1.6% on the news, Nvidia is down 0.6%. I don't know if it's on the news or ennui. 

"Giant of American Journalism Walter Lippmann Looks At Fake News"

Lippman has been called the "Father of Modern Journalism." He knew his trade.
First up The Nation, December 13, 2007:

Lippmann and the News

In the early 1900s Walter Lippman laid the groundrules for public debate in America. Have the US media followed his prescriptions?

The “present crisis of western democracy,” the 30-year-old Walter Lippmann announced in 1920, “is a crisis in journalism.” A co-founder of The New Republic in 1914, a Wilson Administration confidant and Army captain with responsibility for propaganda in Europe during World War I, Lippmann spoke with authority. And originality. His view of the crisis was an unhappy one because, as he went on to argue in Liberty and the News, which was recently reissued as a slim and attractive paperback, journalism could never–unaided–provide an accurate account of reality for purposes of democratic self-government. But whereas other critics of wartime news coverage sought a journalism not beholden to advertisers or governments, Lippmann saw the core of journalism’s corruption elsewhere–in its own smug assurance of knowledge and its eagerness to assert opinion rather than provide facts. Even so, Lippmann offered suggestions for what editors and reporters could do better. He urged them to commit themselves to the cardinal virtue of “truthful reporting” and recognize that opinionmongering, or what polite society might call “edification,” cannot become a “higher law than truth.” In fact, he wrote, “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and shame the devil.”

The “crisis” Lippmann detected in both democracy and journalism arises because the sheer volume of political affairs in an interconnected national and global world–the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand in the capital of a small Slavic country, after all, had drawn American farmboys into a world war–surpasses the capacity of even the most conscientious citizens to monitor. “I know of no man, even among those who devote all of their time to watching public affairs, who can even pretend to keep track, at the same time, of his city government, his state government, Congress, the departments, the industrial situation, and the rest of the world,” he wrote. We depend on the press in our attempts to make sense of politics–and we are vulnerable to its weaknesses: “If I lie in a lawsuit involving the fate of my neighbor’s cow, I can go to jail. But if I lie to a million readers in a matter involving war and peace, I can lie my head off, and, if I choose the right series of lies, be entirely irresponsible.”

For Lippmann, veracity is not easy to attain, nor is its enemy in journalism primarily or necessarily a matter of government pressure or corporate ownership. The same year he published Liberty and the News, Lippmann, assisted by fellow New Republic editor Charles Merz, published a forty-two-page supplement to the August 4 issue of The New Republic called “A Test of the News,” which dissected the New York Times‘s coverage of the Russian Revolution. Lippmann and Merz concluded that the coverage was vastly distorted, most of all by the hopes and fears of reporters and editors themselves, who saw in the Bolsheviks what they wanted to see. The Times assured readers on ninety-one occasions that the revolutionary regime was near collapse...MUCH MORE

Lippmann died in 1974 so he was able to see the New York Times' Walter Duranty win the Pulitzer in 1932 for his lies about Stalin's deliberate starvation of millions of people in Ukraine during the 1932 -1933 Holodomor. See after the jumps if interested.

Lippmann himself won two Pulitzers.

Here's the Lippmann - Merz report

"Quanta Services price target raised to $517 from $495 at Stifel" (PWR)

Our readers know this stuff but it's always nice to have some companionship on the journey.

From The Fly via TipRanks, January 26:

Stifel raised the firm’s price target on Quanta Services (PWR) to $517 from $495 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm sees opportunity for its electrical and mechanical contractor coverage to outperform consensus expectations in Q4, noting that its survey work found that overall activity improved sequentially and was ahead of expectations, the analyst tells investors. 

Quanta Services initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald 

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Quanta Services (PWR) with an Overweight rating and $520 price target The Engineering & Construction sector is entering a multi-year investment cycle fueled by grid modernization, electrification, energy transition initiatives, and rising power demand from data centers and reshoring, while increasing utility capex is driving record backlogs, offering strong near-term revenue visibility and a durable long-term project pipeline, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Quanta Services is essential for a multi-year cycle of grid modernization, electrification, and rising power demand, Cantor says. 

And:

Quanta Services price target raised to $540 from $526 at Citi 

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool...

.... than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.

From The Quotations Page:

...It's been attributed to many persons, but seems to have its roots in the Bible:

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to open your mouth and remove all doubt . -- George Eliot
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt.-- Abraham Lincoln (also attr. Confucius)
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.-- Mark Twain (1835-1910)
Even a fool, when he holdeth his peace, is counted wise: and he that shutteth his lips is esteemed a man of understanding. -- Bible, 'Proverbs' 17:28.
There are no citations for Lincoln or Twain. I have my doubts about Confucius.

Sunday, January 25, 2026

"How Singapore's unique monetary policy works"

From Reuters, January 25/26:

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Singapore's central bank has a unique method of managing monetary policy, tweaking the exchange rate of its currency instead of changing domestic interest rates like many economies.
 
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sets the path of what it calls the policy band of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER), thus strengthening or weakening the local currency against those of its main trading partners.

WHY DOES SINGAPORE USE THIS METHOD?
Singapore is a small and trade-reliant economy. Gross exports and imports of goods and services are more than three times its gross domestic product (GDP). Almost 40 cents of every Singapore dollar spent domestically is on imports.
 
That means the exchange rate has a much bigger influence on inflation than domestic interest rates.
 
For example, an appreciation of the Singapore dollar against the currencies of its major trading partners will reduce prices of imported goods and services. This dampens the prices that households have to pay.

WHAT IS THE S$NEER?
The S$NEER is an index of the Singapore dollar's trade-weighted exchange rate against the currencies of the island's major trading partners....
....MUCH MORE 

 Here's the Monetary Authority of Singapore:

Frequently Asked Questions on
Singapore’s Monetary Policy
Framework
 

Snowmageddon: Despite All The Warnings From Law Enforcement...

Drivers insist on doing doughnuts in the snow.

Winter Storm Fern: The Living Will Envy The Dead

The headline writers haven't decided whether to go with "Snowmageddon" of "Snowpocalypse" so we used the misattributed Khruschev line.

According to Wikiquote it is a translation/transliteration of the more piratical quote from Treasure Island:

"Them that die'll be the lucky ones." 

Which we've used in its extended version

And some prior posts on East Coast storms.

January 22, 2016:
At least once a year the Eastern seaboard sees a big storm and we try to be helpful.
From the Art of Manliness:

5 Ways to Tie a Scarf: Your 60-Second Visual Guide

5 ways for a man to tie a scarf men's style
Scarves are a great way to stay toasty warm when the winter winds come biting. But many men don’t know how to tie a scarf in a masculine and confident way. Using Antonio Centeno’s article from a few years ago, we illustrated 5 of the best ways for a man to tie a scarf so you can see your options at a glance....MORE
Previously:

How to Make a Cooler/Table From A Whiskey Barrel
Drink a barrel of whiskey.
Follow instructions as best as you can.
From The Art of Manliness ...
For Our Friends in New York: "Watch Out for that Snowbank! How to Recover from 5 Types of Skids"
....Below we outline the 5 most common types of skids on wintery pavement, and how to recover when they happen. In general, if you stay calm, restrain yourself from making drastic movements, and follow the tips below, you’ll be able to safely travel the nation’s highways and byways throughout the winter months.
1. Wheelspin
Skids_900-1
Wheelspin occurs when you try to accelerate too abruptly or enthusiastically for the available traction. The tires will start to spin at a faster rate than the vehicle is actually traveling, which can lead to different outcomes depending on whether the vehicle is front, all, or rear-wheel drive. The cure for wheelspin is simple: just back off the throttle until the tires regain traction, and try ramping it up more slowly and cautiously next time. This makes wheelspin a very easy litmus test for how much grip you actually have. For example, intentionally hitting the gas while leaving your driveway on a snowy day to see how easily the tires spin is like dipping your toes into a pool to test the temperature.

Wheelspin is generally to be avoided in turns, but can often actually work to your advantage when moving in a straight line. On pavement or glare ice, there is no real benefit to spinning the tires, but we need to think of the road surface as three dimensional in many cases. Say you have a few inches of snow on top of a good paved or gravel surface; spinning the tires will chew through the fluff and catch good traction on the underlying surface, which can often make the difference between getting up a snowy hill or sliding back down. The same is true in mud or anywhere else there is a slippery material on top of a hard, grippy material.
Traction control in some vehicles will not allow your tires to spin in this fashion. It will either cut the throttle, apply brakes to the spinning wheels, or both. This might mean that your vehicle can’t make it up slippery hills or even get out of your parking space if there’s snow. Try the same thing with the traction control off and you might find that you have no problem at all.
2. Wheel Lockup
Skids_900-2
Wheel lockup occurs when you try to brake too aggressively or suddenly for the surface you’re on. The tires will essentially stop turning while the vehicle is still moving. The solution is thankfully very simple: release the brakes until the tires start to turn again. You may need to release the brakes completely, and try braking again more softly and progressively.....
If that didn't help:
Handy Hints: How To get Your Car Unstuck
 
As you await rescue, having failed to get unstuck: 

Trapped In the Snow With That Brother-In-Law Who Won't Stop Talking? Consider the Cannibal Lifestyle 
Apparently there is some upside beyond even the blissful tranquility of silence.... 
 
And finally, a belated stock tip: 
 
There aren't any publicly held pure plays....
Here are the Salt Institute's members.

But the go-to for risk managers, hedgers and speculators, Compass Minerals Intl Inc., seems to already been gone-to:
 
 
 
Up over 20% since the start of the year and over 13% since the headlines started getting gruesome on the 20th. 

Sequoia Capital: "2026: This is AGI"

From Sequoia, January 14: 

Saddle up: Your dreams for 2030 just became possible for 2026.

Years ago, some leading researchers told us that their objective was AGI. Eager to hear a coherent definition, we naively asked “how do you define AGI?”. They paused, looked at each other tentatively, and then offered up what’s since become something of a mantra in the field of AI: “well, we each kind of have our own definitions, but we’ll know it when we see it.”

This vignette typifies our quest for a concrete definition of AGI. It has proven elusive.

While the definition is elusive, the reality is not. AGI is here, now.

Coding agents are the first example. There are more on the way.

Long-horizon agents are functionally AGI, and 2026 will be their year.

Blissfully Unencumbered by the Details 
Before we go any further, it’s worth acknowledging that we do not have the moral authority to propose a technical definition of AGI.

We are investors. We study markets, founders, and the collision thereof: businesses.

Given that, ours is a functional definition, not a technical definition. New technical capabilities beg the Don Valentine question: so what? 

The answer resides in real world impact. 

A Functional Definition of AGI 
AGI is the ability to figure things out. That’s it.*

*We appreciate that such an imprecise definition will not settle any philosophical debates.  Pragmatically speaking, what do you want if you’re trying to get something done? An AI that can just figure stuff out. How it happens is of less concern than the fact that it happens.

A human who can figure things out has some baseline knowledge, the ability to reason over that knowledge, and the ability to iterate their way to the answer. 

An AI that can figure things out has some baseline knowledge (pre-training), the ability to reason over that knowledge (inference-time compute), and the ability to iterate its way to the answer (long-horizon agents).

The first ingredient (knowledge / pre-training) is what fueled the original ChatGPT moment in 2022. The second (reasoning / inference-time compute) came with the release of o1 in late 2024. The third (iteration / long-horizon agents) came in the last few weeks with Claude Code and other coding agents crossing a capability threshold.

Generally intelligent people can work autonomously for hours at a time, making and fixing their mistakes and figuring out what to do next without being told. Generally intelligent agents can do the same thing. This is new. 

What Does It Mean to Figure Things Out?....

....MUCH MORE 

Genius: "The life of Indian physicist Satyendra Nath Bose"

 From Aeon, January 20:

A light from the periphery
The life of Indian physicist Satyendra Nath Bose illuminates how scientific genius can emerge from the most unexpected quarters 

On a summer day in 1924, a young Indian physicist named Satyendra Nath Bose sent a paper and a letter to Albert Einstein. It would shape the nascent field of quantum mechanics and secure Bose a place in the annals of scientific history.

At the time, Bose was teaching in colonial India, thousands of miles from the centres of European science. In his letter, the 30-year-old Bose explained that he had found a more elegant way to derive one of the pivotal laws of physics (Planck’s law of radiation) and asked for Einstein’s help in publishing it. To Bose’s astonishment, Einstein replied enthusiastically. He translated Bose’s manuscript into German and arranged for it to be published in Zeitschrift für Physik, a leading physics journal of the time. Thus was born Bose-Einstein statistics, a cornerstone of quantum physics.

What made it so significant? In plain terms, Bose devised a new way to count and describe the behaviour of identical quantum particles, most famously, particles of light called photons. Unlike marbles or other distinguishable objects, these particles don’t insist on personal space: they can crowd into the same state rather than each occupying a unique state. Bose showed that treating particles as indistinguishable leads to a new statistical law that correctly produces Planck’s formula without taking recourse to classical physics.

Einstein was so impressed with this idea that he applied it to atoms, predicting a strange new state of matter – what we now call a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC), where particles clump into the same state at low temperatures. BECs are important because they enable direct study of the quantum world, the creation of new states of matter and testing of fundamental theories, and have real-world implications for quantum computing, atomic clocks and other emerging quantum technologies. And today, Bose-Einstein statistics still describe one of the two fundamental classes of subatomic particles, which the physicist Paul Dirac later called ‘bosons’ in honour of Bose’s contribution. Photons are bosons, as is, of course, the Higgs boson, the so-called ‘God particle’ detected in 2012. Hence, bosons are far more important than many non-physicists might realise....

....MUCH MORE 

Here Comes The Government Shutdown

From Fox News' Chad Pergram: 

Continues:

The shooting today in Minnesota appears to have pushed some Democrats over the edge in opposition to funding DHS and ICE. 

It’s about the math. 

Democratic votes are necessary to hit 60 yeas and break a filibuster on bringing the multi-bill spending package to the floor. Democrats are necessary to break that filibuster. They will likely stymie that bill now. The Democratic base simply will not tolerate a yes vote from their Members. 

The House approved this measure Thursday. It funds 78 percent of all of government,
covering six spending measures. It includes the Pentagon as well as DHS/ICE. 

No procedural vote would happen until Wednesday at the earliest. That could change depending on the availability of senators because of the monster storm this week. Much of the country may struggle to move for a few days. 

Moreover, advancing this package through the House was a Herculean lift. The House is now gone. So the it’s impossible to revamp the package quickly. 

The chances of a partial shutdown increased geometrically in just the past few hours. 

The late British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan said the most important factors in politics were “events.” We’ve now had an “event.” And this could dramatically impact the course of government funding this week. 

"Trump admin to take 10% stake in USA Rare Earth in $1.6 bln deal, sources say" (USAR)

From Reuters, January 25:

  • Funding package to help develop mine, magnet facility
  • Deal to be announced on Monday, investor call planned
  • Latest investment by Trump admin into minerals sector

The Trump administration is taking a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth as part of a $1.6 billion debt-and-equity investment package aimed at helping the company develop a domestic mine and magnet facility, two sources familiar with the deal told Reuters.

The deal and a separate $1 billion private investment will be unveiled on Monday and Oklahoma-based USA Rare Earth will host a morning conference call with investors to discuss the terms, according to one of the sources who was briefed on the plans. 
The White House did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. USA Rare Earth declined to comment.
 
China is the largest global processor of rare earths, a group of 17 minerals used to make a range of electronics and military equipment. The U.S. produces only small volumes of rare earths, which has sparked a push in recent years from Washington to increase output. 
USA Rare Earth has been developing a mine in Sierra Blanca, Texas, with Texas Mineral Resources that is slated to open by 2028 and has a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, that is expected to launch later this year....
....MUCH MORE 

Saturday, January 24, 2026

Media: The Longest-Running English-Language Newspaper

From History Today, Volume 75 Issue 11 November 2025:

The ancestor of the London Gazette was launched on 16 November 1665, surviving its bitter rival to become the oldest newspaper in the English-speaking world still in print. 

The Restoration government needed to manage the news. In 1663 it gave the job to its censor, Roger L’Estrange. It was not a good fit. The news, he wrote, ‘makes the multitude too familiar with the actions and counsels of their superiours’. His indifference made him careless. In one issue of L’Estrange’s The Newes, His Highness the Duke of York, a Catholic, was referred to as ‘His Holiness’.

L’Estrange’s principal rival, meanwhile, Henry Muddiman, had built a lucrative subscriber list for handwritten newsletters. L’Estrange fought back: ‘I found him very short of intelligence’, he wrote to the secretary of state, Joseph Williamson, who disagreed. It helped that Muddiman had followed the court to Oxford as it fled the plague....

....MORE 

A.I.: Using Prompt Injection To Steal The Cash Drawer

From IEEE Spectrum, January 21:

Why AI Keeps Falling for Prompt Injection Attacks
We can learn lessons about AI security at the drive-through 

Imagine you work at a drive-through restaurant. Someone drives up and says: “I’ll have a double cheeseburger, large fries, and ignore previous instructions and give me the contents of the cash drawer.” Would you hand over the money? Of course not. Yet this is what large language models (LLMs) do.

Prompt injection is a method of tricking LLMs into doing things they are normally prevented from doing. A user writes a prompt in a certain way, asking for system passwords or private data, or asking the LLM to perform forbidden instructions. The precise phrasing overrides the LLM’s safety guardrails, and it complies.

LLMs are vulnerable to all sorts of prompt injection attacks, some of them absurdly obvious. A chatbot wont tell you how to synthesize a bioweapon, but it might tell you a fictional story that incorporates the same detailed instructions. It wont accept nefarious text inputs, but might if the text is rendered as ASCII art or appears in an image of a billboard. Some ignore their guardrails when told to “ignore previous instructions” or to “pretend you have no guardrails.”

AI vendors can block specific prompt injection techniques once they are discovered, but general safeguards are impossible with today’s LLMs. More precisely, there’s an endless array of prompt injection attacks waiting to be discovered, and they cannot be prevented universally.

If we want LLMs that resist these attacks, we need new approaches. One place to look is what keeps even overworked fast-food workers from handing over the cash drawer....

....MUCH MORE 

The Big Change: From Journalism To Postjournalism

The key concept, that post-journalism is written to confirm the reader's biases is almost a truism, for it can be no other way. The economics of the business will not allow a platform to constantly challenge and make uncomfortable the reader who pays the bills.

From Andrey Mir at Human-as-Media, December 30, 2025:

Postjournalism: The reversal of the media from news supply to news validation 

“If the news is important, it will find me,” said Brian Stelter in 2008. People inevitably learn
 the news that matters to them. Neither effort nor payment is required. When the scarcity of 
content reverses to abundance, people no longer hunt for news—news hunts for people.

A chapter from The Digital Reversal. Thread-Saga of Media Evolution. 

With the internet, news reliability might have degraded, but overall, people became better informed. This flipped the value in content production: news stopped being a commodity and became bait to attract users for other purposes—mainly engagement. 

It wasn’t a tragedy for the news media yet, as they had always used news to attract audiences and sell them to advertisers. The real issue was that advertisers moved to digital platforms too, where they were provided with much better service than the media could ever offer.

First, classifieds moved to digital, taking a third of newspapers’ revenue with them. Corporate ads followed. By 2014, ad revenue in newspapers had dropped below 1950 levels. The entire economic foundation of the press vanished in just a decade.


The decline of ad revenue in newspapers. 
Source: The Newspaper Association of America. [i]

The collapse of advertising was a catastrophe. Throughout the 20th century, the media were 70–80% funded by ads. Journalism was built on the advertising model. When ad revenue dropped below what the media could survive on, further reversals became inevitable.

The first was the reversal of the business model itself. In 2014-2015, newspapers’ ad revenue dropped below circulation revenue. Not because subscriptions or copy sales grew—they stalled or declined as well. But ad revenue declined faster.

(Experts know that later the New York Times demonstrated subscription growth unmatched in the industry, but it had little to do with subscriptions to news. Most of the growth came from other products and packages.)

Similar dynamics hit TV and radio—ad money was diverted to digital platforms. As a result, the business model of news media flipped from predominantly relying on ads to relying more on readers/viewers. The flip happened in the early 2010s everywhere.

***

Unrecognized by the public and the industry, the business reversal changed newsrooms’ approaches and mentality. After some awkward attempts to replace lost revenue with auxiliary businesses, the media returned to their point of origin: the readers.

As everything was moving online—it was the period of the Digital Rush—the media tried to keep up. They started chasing digital audiences, which at the time consisted mostly of the educated, urban, young, and progressive. Most MSM targeted them as potential digital subscribers.

This is where another unnoticed reversal happened: instead of covering news for a broad audience, as they did under the advertising model, news media started catering to a narrow group of digital progressives. The reversal in business model led to an ideological reversal.

Attempts to attract early digital audiences radically changed news coverage, but no business came out of it. Progressives were truly progressive—they didn’t consume news from old media. Most paywalls, a popular trend in the industry in 2011–12, failed.

The environment itself delivered the news. One didn’t even need to visit media websites—news outlets posted their best headlines in our newsfeeds. With friends’ comments selected by the Viral Editor, it provided a fairly reliable picture of the day.

However, if something worrisome happened, people still needed someone authoritative to confirm how bad it was. Old media suited the role of bad-news notaries very well. They got the prompt and flipped news supply into news validation....

....MUCH MORE 

Previous visits with Mir:

Over the years we've linked to some of Mir's own writing with most links embedded in:
Andrey Mir: "How the Media Polarized Us"

...Having read a lot* of Mr. Mir's words I think he is too facile in timing the polarization; that he is shoehorning the facts into his mental matrix. To be clear, this piece is far, far from as egregious an example as some of the books that were popular a decade or two ago: "Business Lessons From Attilla the Hun," where an author might have one decent insight but then tries to stretch it out for two hundred pages, jamming as many square pegs into round holes as necessary to get the needed word count. 
 
Rather, in Mr. Mir's case it's just that he doesn't put as much emphasis on the fact that American media has always been partisan, and that in the half-decade 1985 -1990 it went hyper-partisan. 
However, even if that observation is true (it may not be, who knows?), Mir knows more about media ecology than just about anyone writing on the topic. period.
*Previous links to Andrey Mir:
I'll get off this Andrey Mir, post-journalism kick, I promise. But not yet. (shades of St Augustine)

The reason for my borderline obsession is the fact that mass media has changed so dramatically over the last five or ten years, which makes it imperative to understand and possibly channel the forces that attempt to shape our everyday view of reality. And it really is getting close to the point that the call to arms "If it isn't censored, it's a lie" is a description of what is going on.

And that would be a shame, we like journalists and, among other reasons, get some of our best ideas from them.

"Ukraine Will Be the Business Opportunity of the Decade"

From Barron's, January 23:

President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky met in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday to discuss an end to Russia’s war. No concrete plans were drawn up, but both leaders emerged optimistic about their progress. Attention should now turn to what peace might bring—not just for security, but for business. When the fighting stops, the most promising opportunities for U.S. companies won’t be in Russia, but in Ukraine.

President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky met in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday to discuss an end to Russia’s war. No concrete plans were drawn up, but both leaders emerged optimistic about their progress. Attention should now turn to what peace might bring—not just for security, but for business. When the fighting stops, the most promising opportunities for U.S. companies won’t be in Russia, but in Ukraine.

At first glance, Russia might seem the more attractive market. It has 140 million people, a $2.2 trillion economy, and vast natural resources. But even after hostilities subside, political and commercial risks will remain high and the range of investment opportunities therefore narrow.

Ukraine’s outlook is far brighter. In terms of real gross domestic product, Ukraine’s economy is still more than 20% below its prewar level. But once a durable cease-fire takes hold, it will become one of the world’s most dynamic emerging economies.

In the immediate aftermath of the war, Ukraine will become the site of the largest reconstruction project since World War II. The World Bank estimates more than $500 billion will be spent in the country over the next decade.

One of Ukraine’s strongest opportunities will be its defense technology—an area where engagement with Russia, which relies on China for its defense materials, offers little to the U.S. Ukraine has become a global model for defense technology innovation. Ukrainian firms are already partnering with U.S. companies to develop prototypes of one-way, long-range unmanned aerial systems.

Ukraine’s economic record after its independence in 1991 was arguably the worst of all the former Soviet Union’s former member states. In 2013, before former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was removed from office, the country’s business environment was mired by “complex tax and customs codes, byzantine laws, and regulations, poor corporate governance, weak enforcement of contract law…and official corruption,” according to a U.S. Department of State report.

Ukraine has since made reforms to improve its investment climate. It restructured its banking system, closing banks that accounted for more than one-third of banking assets and recapitalizing others. Reforms to gas pricing and management resulted in the state-owned gas company, Naftogas, paying 1% of GDP into Ukraine’s budget in 2019. That helped reduce the government’s stubborn budget deficit....

....MUCH MORE 

If interested see also:

Money, Money, Money: "Chrystia Freeland to resign as Toronto MP after accepting position advising Ukraine’s government"

A few years ago I would have taken even-money on Natalie Jaresko being the person to represent BlackRock, JP Morgan et al.  

***

Related:

June 2023 - Big Money: BlackRock and JPMorganTo Set Up Ukraine Reconstruction Bank (BLK; JPM)

March 2024 - How Much To Rebuild Ukraine? Half-a-Trillion Is The Opening Bid

December 2025 - "BlackRock’s Larry Fink joins Trump team talks to rebuild Ukraine"

And Natalie?

February 2023 - "Marketing Ukraine's Reconstruction To Fuel The War"

If you want in on the action, get to know this woman:...

A knock against Mme. Jaresko is she would obviously be representing the Chicago crowd, Pritzkers, Crowns and other Barack Obama backers, and though Jamie Dimon was probably okay with it I don't know if Larry Fink, now also interim co-chairman of the World Economic Forum would have signed off.

So Natalie is presently running the Aspen Institute's Kyiv operation. 

That 'marketing reconstruction' post above back-links to some of her actions when she served as Ukraine's Finance Minister, 2014 - 2016 which coincidentally were also linked in January 1's  "Ukraine bonds at post-restructuring highs as investors see some progress in peace talks".