Monday, June 5, 2017

Vatican Knowledge of Extraterrestrials Revealed in Podesta Emails

From RT, Oct. 10, 2016:
Aliens want to help mankind but fear our violent tendencies, according to an email exchange revealed by Wikileaks. Mails sent by astronaut Edgar Mitchell to John Podesta cite an impending space war and the Vatican’s knowledge of alien life.

“Because the War in Space race is heating up, I felt you should be aware of several factors as you and I schedule our Skype talk,” Mitchell, who died in February, tells Podesta in the mails from 2015, before mentioning a “nonviolent” alien species that wishes to share with mankind “zero point energy.”

Podesta was serving as counselor to President Barack Obama during the exchange, before he left the position to become chairman of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. These emails emerged before Monday’s second batch of the ‘Podesta Emails’ were released by Wikileaks.

Terri Mansfield, who describes herself online as “the Director of the ETI (Extraterrestrial Intelligence) Peace Task Force” is also mentioned in one of Mitchell’s emails.

Referred to as Mitchell’s “Catholic colleague,” Mansfield is also said to be attending the meeting with Podesta “to bring us up to date on the Vatican’s awareness of ETI.”

On her website, Mansfield describes ETIs as being “the highest form of intelligence working directly with God.”

Mitchell, who includes in his email signature that he’s the “6th man to walk on the Moon,” warns Podesta that the “nonviolent ETI” are helping to share zero point energy with Earth but will not “tolerate any forms of military violence on Earth or in space."
...MORE

A bit late getting to this but it might be important.

Possibly related:

"If we find ET, don’t talk to it, says the man who wants to find ET"
Well duh, even yours truly, stuck here (along with you and everyone else) "In the outer spiral arm, at 40,000 miles an hour, Of a galaxy we call the Milky Way" figured that out.*' **
In Other News: Possible Evidence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence
Ignore them. Do not wave back.... 

"Mary Meeker’s 2017 Internet Trends Report: All the Slides, Plus Analysis"

From Recode, May 31:
Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers partner Mary Meeker is delivering her annual rapid-fire internet trends report right now at Code Conference at the Terranea Resort in California.

Here’s a first look at the most highly anticipated slide deck in Silicon Valley. This year’s report includes 355 slides and tons of information, including a new section on healthcare that Meeker didn’t present live.

Here are some of our takeaways:
  • Global smartphone growth is slowing: Smartphone shipments grew 3 percent year over year last year, versus 10 percent the year before. This is in addition to continued slowing internet growth, which Meeker discussed last year.
  • Voice is beginning to replace typing in online queries. Twenty percent of mobile queries were made via voice in 2016, while accuracy is now about 95 percent.
  • In 10 years, Netflix went from 0 to more than 30 percent of home entertainment revenue in the U.S. This is happening while TV viewership continues to decline.
  • Entrepreneurs are often fans of gaming, Meeker said, quoting Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman and Mark Zuckerberg. Global interactive gaming is becoming mainstream, with 2.6 billion gamers in 2017 versus 100 million in 1995. Global gaming revenue is estimated to be around $100 billion in 2016, and China is now the top market for interactive gaming.
  • China remains a fascinating market, with huge growth in mobile services and payments and services like on-demand bike sharing. (More here: The highlights of Meeker's China slides.)
  • While internet growth is slowing globally, that’s not the case in India, the fastest growing large economy. The number of internet users in India grew more than 28 percent in 2016. That’s only 27 percent online penetration, which means there’s lots of room for internet usership to grow. Mobile internet usage is growing as the cost of bandwidth declines. (More here: The highlights of Meeker's India slides.)
  • In the U.S. in 2016, 60 percent of the most highly valued tech companies were founded by first- or second-generation Americans and are responsible for 1.5 million employees. Those companies include tech titans Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Facebook.
  • Healthcare: Wearables are gaining adoption with about 25 percent of Americans owning one, up 12 percent from 2016. Leading tech brands are well-positioned in the digital health market, with 60 percent of consumers willing to share their health data with the likes of Google in 2016.
...MUCH MORE

Ag Futures: "When Should We Start Paying Attention to Crop Condition Ratings for Corn and Soybeans?"

From the University of Illinois' FarmDoc Daily, May 24:
The USDA will report crop condition ratings for the 2017 U.S corn and soybean crops in the 18 major producing states in the weekly Crop Progress report beginning May 30 and continuing until harvest. Weekly crop condition ratings have been made for all the major producing states since 1986. Market participants typically follow the crop condition ratings closely as an indication of crop health, yield potential, and change in yield potential as the growing season proceeds (e.g., farmdoc daily, July 19, 2011; August 4, 2011; September 9, 2011; July 14, 2016). Recent research documents that these ratings indeed have a substantial market impact during the growing season (Lehecka, 2014). In a farmdoc daily article yesterday (May 23, 2017), Gary Schnitkey showed that early season crop condition ratings do not tell us much about corn yield prospects in Illinois. This naturally leads to the question of when do condition ratings provide useful information about potential yields. In this article, we examine the relationship between crop condition ratings at various times in the growing season and the U.S. average yield of corn and soybeans in order to determine when we should pay serious attention to the ratings.

Background
We start with a brief description of the condition ratings and the procedure for developing those ratings. Our discussion draws mainly from the procedure for surveying crop condition ratings and making crop condition ratings as described in the May 22, 2017 Crop Progress report. For both corn and soybeans, conditions are reported as the percentage of the crop rated to be in one of five categories, described as follows:
  • Very Poor - Extreme degree of loss to yield potential, complete or near crop failure. Pastures provide very little or no feed considering the time of year. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition.
  • Poor - Heavy degree of loss to yield potential which can be caused by excess soil moisture, drought, disease, etc. Pastures are providing only marginal feed for the current time of year. Some supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition.
  • Fair - Less than normal crop condition. Yield loss is a possibility but the extent is unknown. Pastures are providing generally adequate feed but still less than normal for the time of year.
  • Good - Yield prospects are normal. Moisture levels are adequate and disease, insect damage, and weed pressures are minor. Pastures are providing adequate feed supplies for the current time of year.
  • Excellent - Yield prospects are above normal. Crops are experiencing little or no stress. Disease, insect damage, and weed pressures are insignificant. Pastures are supplying feed in excess of what is normally expected at the current time of year.
The percentages in each of the five categories must sum to 100. For example, the 18-state corn condition ratings on August 1, 2016 were 1 percent very poor, 5 percent poor, 18 percent fair, 56 percent good, and 20 percent excellent. National crop planting progress, progress of development stages, and condition estimates are weighted using the program State's average planted acres over the previous three crop years.

As described in the May 22, 2017 Crop Progress report, progress and condition estimates are based on survey data collected each week from early April through the end of November. The non-probability crop progress and condition surveys include input from approximately 3,600 respondents whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties. While NASS does not provide data on the composition of respondents, it is our understanding that in earlier years the vast majority were county agricultural extension agents, but as the number of agents declined over time they were replaced by others, such as Farm Service Agency staff and elevator managers. Based on standard definitions, these respondents subjectively estimate the progress of crops through various stages of development, as well as the progress of producer activities. They also provide subjective evaluations of crop conditions when the crops are mature enough to make such evaluations.

Analysis
The way in which weekly crop condition ratings are used to judge corn and soybean yield potential likely varies considerably. However, it is common to use the combined percentage of the crop rated good (yield prospects are normal) and excellent (yield prospects are above normal) at any point in the growing season to quantify average yield expectations. It should be expected that the relationship between yield (adjusted for trend) and the combined percentage of the crop rated in good and excellent condition would be the strongest at the end of the growing season when uncertainty about growing conditions has been largely resolved. That relationship for the period 1986 through 2016 is presented in Figure 1 for corn and Figure 2 for soybeans. The percentage of the crop rated good or excellent in the final report of the year explained nearly 85 percent of the annual variation in the trend-adjusted U.S. average corn yield and about 71 percent of the variation in soybean yields. Both corn and soybean yields are adjusted to 2017 technology using linear trends for 1986-2016. That strong relationship explains why market participants follow crop condition ratings closely to judge yield potential. However, from a practical point of view, waiting for the final crop condition rating of the season to form yield expectations is not particularly valuable. The question, then, is whether crop condition ratings earlier in the growing season provide useful information for forming yield expectations?
fdd052417_fig1.jpg

...MUCH MORE

Currencies: "US Dollar Starts Important Week Mostly Stable to Higher"

From Marc to Market:
The US dollar is beginning what promises to be an important week on a steady to firmer note against most of the major currencies. It is a holiday in parts of Europe (e.g.,m Germany and Switzerland). Although excitement is not until Thursday's ECB meeting, UK election, and the testimony of former US FBI Director Comey, there are several developments today to note.

The most surprising of these events was the decision by a Saudi-led coalition (Bahrain, UAE, and Egypt) to severe diplomatic and economic ties with Qatar over its support for Iran and Islamist groups. Air and sea travel have been suspended and Saudi Arabia has closed its border. Oil prices jumped on the news, but Brent's gains have been halved. Qatar's equities slid around 7.5%, and most regional bourses were lower.

Qatar is a rich country and holds stakes in a couple of European banks. The US forward headquarters of its Middle East Central Command is also located in Qatar. Japan and South Korea accounted for nearly 50% of Qatar's exports in 2015.

In another surprise, in the largest state election in Mexico, the PRI's candidate Del Mazo appears to have won; turning back a challenge by the populist-Left Morena's candidate Gomez. The peso has appreciated 1.8% in response, making it the strongest currency in the world today. The US dollar is holding a little above last month's low (~MXN18.2420), which itself was the lowest since the US election when the greenback traded as last as MXN18.1635. It has traded near MXN17.90 briefly last August.

Sterling initially opened a little softer after the terrorist strike over the weekend in London. However, it has been resilient, even in the face of the poor service PMI (53.8 from 55.8), which returned to its lowest level since February. The composite PMI slumped to 54.4 from 56.2 in April. It averaged 54.6 in Q1, but Markit suggests that it is still consistent with a rebound in the UK economy after 0.2% expansion in Q1.

Sterling is holding below its 20-day moving average (~$1.2920), which it has not closed above since May 25. The opinion polls have generally tightened, but many investors still appear confident that the Tories will hold on to a majority. In the options market, implied volatility remains firm, and the premium for puts over calls is edging higher.....MORE

"Nordics could become 'Silicon Valley' of food" (and Norway goes big on seaweed cultivation)

Please don't
As the bumper sticker says: "Mealworms aren't food, mealworms are what food eats".
Or something.
From EU Observer:

https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/euobs-media/c1eb327f9445b92cd6c4b230f4c2a56b.jpg
 Plankton, seaweed and edible insects were on the menu, when the prime ministers of Finland, Sweden, Denmark,
 Iceland and Norway met in Austevoll, southwest of the city of Bergen in Norway on Tuesday (30 May).
They launched an initiative called Nordic Solutions To Global Challenges, which aims to achieve the UN's sustainable development goals for 2030.

Agriculture is a huge contributor to climate change but, so far, attention has mainly been on limiting carbon emissions from industry and transport.

The Nordic countries now also want to focus on sustainable food production in order to fight climate change.

The prime ministers ate their climate-friendly lunch in a tent outside the Austevoll Research Station, one of Europe’s largest and most advanced research facilities for studies of fish welfare and the ecological effects of aquaculture.

Most experts agree that traditional farming won't produce enough to feed the growing world population in an environmentally responsible way. So, new ways have to be found.

With around 70 percent of the Earth's surface covered by water, it appears logical to explore how much additional food and proteins the oceans could potentially provide in the future.

The Nordic prime ministers got a taste of the changes in diet that lie ahead, when they were served various shellfish, farmed halibut and fried mealworms – all nicely arranged with flowers and edible pine tree needles.

Meet halibut Sophia
The ministers were also presented with Sophia, a 20-year-old enormous halibut, swimming in one of the giant water tanks in the research centre.

In the wild, halibuts rarely live long enough to grow to their full potential weight of 200-300 kilos (for female fish).

Initial results of the Norwegian research show that halibut farming could potentially form the basis for new businesses in Norway, which is in search of ways to replace its weakening oil industry.
”We can manipulate the fish to reproduce as females only, with the advantage that the female halibut fish grow much bigger than the males”, explained one of the researchers at Austevoll Research Station.

The fish can also be genetically engineered so that they are unable to reproduce, which prevents disruptions to the ecosystem in case the engineered fish were to escape into the ocean by mistake.
Norway already has a big industry based on farmed salmon, but this business has reached its limits and the production has been capped. Meanwhile, researchers are looking into ways of solving problems such as fish lice and other issues resulting from intensive fish farming.

”We need to reach a balance and solve the problems, before we can move on,” EUobserver was explained by the researcher at the centre.

China is by far the world's main fish-exporting country, but followed by Norway, Vietnam and Thailand, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's fishery and aquaculture statistics.

Silicon Valley on future food
"I believe the Nordics can become the Silicon Valley of future food," said Gunhild Stordalen, founder of the EAT foundation and one of the driving forces in the coming food revolution.

She reminded the prime ministers that the "way we currently produce and waste our food is far from sustainable ... food production is a main driver of climate change and environmental problems".
"What we need is a coherent food and agricultural policy, linking what we produce to what we should eat," Stordalen said, adding that "unhealthy diets are now posing a greater threat to public health than tobacco"....MORE
..."I ate three croutons [with the roasted meal worms]. I've tasted it before .... it is hugely rich in protein and is a relevant, complementary resource," said Loekke Rasmussen.

"But I know things that I like better".
Probably related, via Maritime Executive:

Designing the Largest Seaweed Cultivation Vessel
A new vessel for commercial seaweed production is currently being developed by researchers in Trondheim, in close collaboration with business partners from a variety of sectors.

The vessel, which is still only on the drawing board, will be designed for use during all stages of marine seaweed cultivation. This means that it will be equipped for all operations from the installation of seaweed cultivation facilities, to the transport and sowing of seaweed seedlings and the harvesting and transport of fully-grown plants.

“The driving forces behind this project are the demands of an ever-growing global population for higher levels of exploitation of the oceans in food production. Seaweeds are regarded as an important contribution towards meeting these demands”, says Andreas Myskja Lien, a research scientist at SINTEF.

Commercial seaweed production in Norway currently has a turnover of $140 million, primarily linked to wild algae, and provides jobs for about 400 people. This is estimated to increase to $465 million by 2050.

The new vessel concept will help seaweed cultivation become more efficient, enabling it to be scaled up.  Currently, many operations, such as sowing and harvesting, are carried out manually....
And last year's Shipping: "Got an idle containership? Repurpose it as a salmon farm!".

Saturday, June 3, 2017

David Byrne Has a Theory of An Overarching Agenda In Technology (and Sartre does a driveby)

Yes, that David Byrne.
Yes that Sartre.
Here goes, first up J-P Sartre:
"So that’s hell. … I never thought You remember: the sulphur, the stake, the grill. Oh, What a joke. No need to grill: hell is other people
But no, ol' J.P. says hisL’enfer, c’est les autres” doesn't mean what I think it means.
So screw him, sometimes hell is other philosophes.
(damn fool hasn't done anything worthwhile since the cookbook anyway)

On the other hand, from Mr. Byrne's Journal, May 15, 2017:

ELIMINATING THE HUMAN

via GIPHY
I have a theory that much recent tech development and innovation over the last decade or so has had an unspoken overarching agenda—it has been about facilitating the need for LESS human interaction. It’s not a bug—it’s a feature. We might think Amazon was about selling us books we couldn’t find locally—and it was and what a brilliant idea—but maybe it was also just as much about eliminating human interaction. I see a pattern emerging in the innovative technology that has gotten the most attention, gets the bucks and often, no surprise, ends up getting developed and implemented. What much of this technology seems to have in common is that it removes the need to deal with humans directly. The tech doesn’t claim or acknowledge this as its primary goal, but it seems to often be the consequence. I’m sort of thinking maybe it is the primary goal. There are so many ways imagination can be manifested in the technical sphere. Many are wonderful and seem like social goods, but allow me a little conspiracy mongering here—an awful lot of them have the consequence of lessening human interaction.

I suspect that we almost don’t notice this pattern because it’s hard to imagine what an alternative focus of tech development might be. Most of the news we get barraged with is about algorithms, AI, robots and self driving cars, all of which fit this pattern, though there are indeed many technological innovations underway that have nothing to do with eliminating human interaction from our lives. CRISPR-cas9 in genetics, new films that can efficiently and cheaply cool houses and quantum computing to name a few, but what we read about most and what touches us daily is the trajectory towards less human involvement. Note: I don’t consider chat rooms and product reviews as “human interaction”; they’re mediated and filtered by a screen.

I am not saying these developments are not efficient and convenient; this is not a judgement regarding the services and technology. I am simply noticing a pattern and wondering if that pattern means there are other possible roads we could be going down, and that the way we’re going is not in fact inevitable, but is (possibly unconsciously) chosen.
Here are some examples of tech that allows for less human interaction:

Online ordering and home delivery- Online ordering is hugely convenient. Amazon, FreshDirect, Instacart, etc. have not just cut out interactions at bookstores and checkout lines, they have eliminated ALL human interaction barring the (often paid) online recommendations. New York has had home take-out delivery for decades—one simply phones the local take-out place—but New York also has never had a shortage of random human interaction.

Here’s an Amazon warehouse in Peterborough, Cambridge. Increasingly the picking is done by a combination of humans working with robots. I can see eight people in this picture.
http://davidbyrne.com/images/made/images/uploads/todomundo/gty_amazon_center_mm_150724_4x3_992_650_488_60.jpeg

Gig Jobs- TaskRabbit and other services—there are people who perform these tasks in the gig economy, but as a client one does not necessarily have to interact with them in a meaningful way.

Airbnb- There is no check-in desk interaction; often there is no human contact at all.

Digital music- Downloads and streaming—there is no physical store, of course, so there are no snobby, know-it-all clerks to deal with. Whew, you might say. There are algorithmic recommendations on some services so you don’t even have to discuss music with your friends to know what they like—the service knows what they like, and you can know too without actually talking to them. Is music as a kind of social glue and lubricant also being eliminated?

Car driver apps- There is minimal interaction—one doesn’t have to tell the driver the address, the preferred route or interact while paying the check.

Driverless cars- In one sense, if you’re out with your friends, not having one of you drive means more time to chat. Or drink. Very nice. But driverless tech is also very much aimed at eliminating taxi drivers, truck drivers, delivery drivers and many others. There are huge advantages to eliminating humans here—theoretically machines should drive more safely than humans—so there might be fewer accidents and fatalities. The disadvantages include massive job loss. But that’s another subject. What I’m seeing here is the consistent “eliminating the human” pattern.

Automated checkout- Eatsa is a new version of the Automat, a once popular “restaurant” with no visible staff. My local CVS has been training their staff to help us learn to use the checkout machines which will replace them. At the same time, they are training their customers to do the work of the cashiers.

Amazon has been testing stores—even grocery stores!—with automated shopping. They’re called Amazon Go. If the items are placed perfectly on the shelves, then sensors know what you’ve picked up, and you can simply walk out with your “purchases” without any human contact. But they still need to get quite a few bugs out.

At some airports, one orders and pays via tablets—that system has some bugs in it too. I watched a lot of people simply walk away in frustration, but those bugs will get sorted someday soon.

Online Art Sales- Art is increasingly being sold online, so one can avoid any possible awkward encounters with intimidating gallery staff.

eBay- “Auctions” without the human drama and excitement.

AI- AI is often (though not always) truly better at decision-making than humans. In some areas, we might expect this. For example, AI will suggest the fastest route on a map accounting for traffic and distance while we as humans wouldn’t have the time to check all that traffic data, and we’d be prone to taking our tried and true route. But some less expected areas where AI is better than humans are opening up. As Siddhartha Mukherjee writes in The New Yorker, AI is getting better at spotting melanomas than many doctors. Much routine legal work will soon be done by computer programs and financial assessments are now being done by machines....MUCH MORE
...Lastly, "Social" media- social “interaction” that isn’t really social.

While the appearance on social networks is one of connection—as Facebook and others frequently claim—the fact is a lot of social media is a simulation of real social connection. As has been in evidence recently, social media actually increases divisions amongst us by amplifying echo effects and allowing us to live in cognitive bubbles. We are fed what we already like or what our similarly inclined friends like… or more likely now what someone has payed for us to see in an ad that mimics content. In this way, we actually become less connected except to those in our group....
Same as it ever was.

Back to Sartre. I think he was an honest-to-goodness misanthrope, not the Molière kind but a real  hater of humanity.
From 2015's Existential Questions I Hadn't Considered: "Is There a Gnawing Ennui Within the Financial Industry?":
...See also:
Using's Sartre's Critique of Dialectical Reason for Managerial Decision-Making
Abstract: 
This paper will offer an alternative understanding of managerial decision-making drawing from Sartre’s Critique of Dialectical Reason rather than simply Being and Nothingness....MORE
Oh joy. 
Additionally, Cookin' with Jean-Paul:
October 3 -- Spoke with Camus today about my cookbook. Though he has never actually eaten, he gave me much encouragement. I rushed home immediately to begin work. How excited I am! I have begun my formula for a Denver omelet.

October 4 -- Still working on the omelet. There have been stumbling blocks. I keep creating omelets one after another, like soldiers marching into the sea, but each one seems empty, hollow, like stone. I want to create an omelet that expresses the meaninglessness of existence, and instead they taste like cheese. I look at them on the plate, but they do not look back. Tried eating them with the lights off. It did not help. Malraux suggested paprika.

October 6 -- I have realized that the traditional omelet form (eggs and cheese) is bourgeois. Today I tried making one out of cigarette, some coffee, and four tiny stones. I fed it to Malraux, who puked....MORE
And the Grand père Jeté:
Le Blog de Jean-Paul Sartre

He hated people. 

Lessons For Millenial Basement Dwellers From the Real Sharing Economy: "Social bet-hedging in vampire bats"

From Smithsonian:

What a Vampire Bat Can Teach Us About the Economics of Friendship
A Smithsonian scientist says important lessons about making friends and sharing can be learned from these blood-sucking creatures

The blood-sucking vampire bat may have a lesson to teach us on what sharing is all about. If you don't believe this, Gerald Carter can prove it with his new research paper, "Social Bet-Hedging in Vampire Bats." By observing how vampire bats make friends and share food, Carter has figured out some evolutionary facts of friendship that could potentially apply beyond the world of bats and blood.

“This is what we do every night,” he says, slipping through a screen door into a dark, wire enclosure with black plastic tacked up around the walls. Vampire bats dangle from the corners of the ceiling like fuzzy brown fruit. There is a strange, thick animal scent in the humid Panamanian air. At the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) facility in Gamboa, Panama, Carter, a behavioral ecologist, has been able to study vampire bats both in the wild and in captivity for years.
Wearing a special glove, he picks out one particular flapping little vampire bat and examines it. “We come in here and the bats have these little bands and their names are just their bands,” Carter says. “This one is Shiny, for the shiny band.”

Shiny looks annoyed. Also cute. Carter stretches Shiny's wing out to demonstrate the little grasping claws used to grip and climb. Shiny has a fuzzy belly and very soft, velvet-like wings. The captive bats have allowed Carter to ask a pretty big question about the bats and about living things in general.
Vampire bats, native to Central and South America, feed exclusively in the wild on blood from live animals. If they go about 48 hours without a meal, they die. These bats have a strategy for staying alive when food is scarce. They can regurgitate blood in order to feed one another, though they won't do this for just anyone. They will only feed certain family and friends.
Carter can take Shiny out of the bat enclosure for a night and keep him in a separate cage where he doesn't eat. Then on his return to the other bats, he can observe whether any other bats are willing to feed Shiny. Vampire bats tend to have very strong relationships with their mothers and daughters and other close family. Investing in those relationships through grooming and just hanging out together tends to mean that those family members will reliably provide food when needed. But what happens if Shiny's mom isn't around?

The act of feeding is inherently more dangerous for vampire bats than it is for, say, fruit bats. A piece of fruit doesn't roll over and squish you. Vampire bats seek out animals that are asleep and use their ability to sense heat to figure out the best place to take a bite. That bite is risky. If it hurts, the animal might fight back....MORE
...Carter's conclusion is that there is a real advantage to making friends, but that advantage is only observed when a starved bat doesn't have access to close family.

“I definitely look at it from an economic viewpoint,” Carter says. “The idea of this paper is how does a bat make a decision about the number of relationships it creates and the strength of those relationships? The idea I have is that if your mom is your only food sharing partner and she dies, or isn't there when you need her, then you're screwed. So you should not be putting all of your eggs in one basket. It's like stocks. You should diversify. . . You don't just want to consider the return rate. You want to minimize risk, as well.”...
To readers who might be thinking of regurgitating a little blood sausage or black pudding for me, I appreciate the kind intention, I really do, but I'm good.
Seriously.
Not kidding.

"Did someone cancel the fintech revolution?"

From FinExtra, May 29:
Did someone cancel the fintech revolution or has it just been delayed? That's the question posed by a new report on the UK scene, which argues that new entrants have failed to lure customers from incumbents and that VC money has started to dry up.

Over the last few years, the fintech hype machine has been in overdrive, with a digital revolution promising to change market structure, radically improve products and services, and save the high street veterans from sliding into invisible utilities.

The Accenture report says that these promises have yet to come to pass; old fashioned banks are still standing, and perhaps standing still, while startups have yet to gain real traction in customer acquisition and seen their VC investment decline by more than a third in the last year.

Nevertheless, Accenture suggests that the revolution is more likely to be stalled than dead. The firm argues that the UK can establish itself as a leading exporter of fintech R&D, helping individual firms monetise their expertise and 'UK plc' build the county's digital reputation....MORE, including the link to the Accenture report (16 page PDF)
"No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn'it, ay?"

The long, slow, rotten march of progress

From The Outline:

What I learned at a tech conference in New Orleans.
The new world, dragging itself sticky and stinking out of the swamps, has an answer for all your problems: you should learn to code. The old certainties are gone, the natural world is dying, and the sun that once looked down on us is being blacked out by an endless swarm of automated delivery drones. You can no longer expect forty years of drudgery and then a spluttering death from good old-fashioned blue-collar pneumoconiosis. You can’t make it through life hating your boss instead of yourself, not when new forms of labour discipline demand that you be your own boss. Your flesh is already obsolete. But there’s an answer: to survive in the coming era of automation, you have to bring it in faster; announce its apocalypse, learn to code, add yourself to the army of programmers building an appier tomorrow.

Kentucky has a startup training former coal miners as software engineers. Across the country, there are boot camps teaching computer languages to the long-term unemployed, with no fees until you land your first job. It can be grotesque — if the economic structure of society is failing to meet people’s needs, it’s quite a leap to blame the people affected for not having the right skills — but this is, at root, a utopian promise. All the prejudices and stupidities that churn beneath our vague, signifying human language will be wiped away by the world that’s coming, expressed in the blank mathematical intricacies of code. Your age or race or gender don’t matter; they belong to the age of objects. Just learn how to code, and you’ll be fine. But something’s missing. Code what? To do what? And why?

In New Orleans, at this month’s Collision conference — America’s fastest-growing tech expo, a vast temple for our infinitarian demiurge, frantically creating a world it does not understand — I discovered the answer: nobody really knows. At a roundtable I somehow ended up chairing, it was suggested that as a result of large-scale automation, coding would become universal; everyone would be “a chef and a programmer, a garbage man and a programmer.” But if all the work goes to machines, how do all these new programmers feed themselves. The unspoken answer: by going to Collision. Beneath the titanic upper reaches of the tech industry, where squat little moguls sit on their vast piles of money and ramble idly about how empowering it is for everyone, teems an underworld of tiny start-ups, all desperate to be the next Amazon or the next Uber, all knowing that if they fail it’ll be bankruptcy, penury, and death. And conferences like Collision, TechCrunch Disrupt, or Web Summit in Europe, are where the pre-dead make their bleating gasps for life.
Code what? To do what? And why?
Desperation is everywhere; exhibitors make lunging grabs for any passers-by wearing an “INVESTOR” lanyard, proffer stickers and goodies, scream for attention on their convention-standard signs. These do not, to put it kindly, make a lot of sense. “Giving you all the tools you need to activate and manage your influencer marketing relationships,” promises one. “Leverage what is known to find, manage, and understand your data,” entices another. The gleaming technological future looks a lot like a new golden age of hucksterism. It’s networking; the sordid, stupid business of business; pressing palms with arrogant pricks, genuflecting to idiots, entirely unchanged by the fact that this time it’s about apps and code rather than dog food or dishwashers.

None of these start-ups are doing anything new or interesting. Which shouldn’t be surprising: how often does anyone have a really good idea? What you actually get is just code, sloshing around, congealing into apps and firms that exist simply to exist. Uber for dogs, GrubHub for clothes, Patreon for sex, Slack for death, PayPal for God, WhatsApp for the spaceless non-void into which a blind universe expands. The constant recombination of worn-out elements. Companies that make useless products to help other companies make useless products that help other companies make useless products. There are start-ups that spend tens of thousands on names and branding before they even come up with a product or see if anyone might want it. This is called innovation, but what it actually represents is a culture that piles up the garbled detritus of the old in lieu of creating anything new, and a morbid economic order drowning in its own surplus liquidity and willing to invest in any bubble that comes along.

Capitalism doesn’t know what to do with its surpluses any more; it ruthlessly drains them from the immiserated low-tech manufacturing bases of the Global South, snatches them away from a first-world population tapping at computer code on the edge of redundancy, but then has nowhere better to put them than in some executive’s gold-plated toilet. This soil breeds monsters; new, parasitic products scurry like the first worms over the world-order’s dying body. The “Internet of Things” is meant to be the future, but it mostly looks like a farcical recomplication of what we already had: a juice press that needs to scan a QR code and connect to your wifi before it’ll exert functionally the same amount of pressure as a pair of human hands, a wine bottle that connects to the internet and only dispenses proprietary wines, light bulbs that burn out or flicker maniacally if you haven’t installed the drivers properly....MUCH MORE

Friday, June 2, 2017

"Einhorn Compares GM to Apple and Explains Why He’s Short Tesla" (TSLA; GM)

The stock is definitely losing some of the momentum that drove it to yesterday's intraday all-time high at $344.88, closing today at $339.85, off a fraction of a percent on the day:
From Barron's Focus on Funds:

What Greenlight Capital's co-founder discussed with David Westin on Bloomberg TV Friday morning.
Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn appeared on Bloomberg TV to talk about General Motors (GM) and his plan to unlock shareholder value, yet again.

Makes sense given the auto company is holding its annual meeting next week Tuesday. We'll all find out soon enough if Einhorn's proposed dual-class share will take a step forward or go by the way of his iPrefs idea for Apple (AAPL).

Bloomberg TV provided Barrons.com with a transcript of the video that can be seen here.
Here are the highlights from Einhorn's discussion with David Westin: 
How the dual-class share will unlock value
It has to do with choice.  Think of it as an ice cream stand that sells just vanilla chocolate swirl.  There's some people who like vanilla chocolate swirl, and we'll call those the GM shareholders.  But if chocolate is the dividend and vanilla is the rest of the operation, imagine if you sold chocolate, vanilla, or swirl, in any combination that you want.  That ice cream stand would attract more customers....MORE
...Why he's short Tesla
Tesla is one of many things we have in what we so call our bubble basket of stocks that we just think are mispriced and are mispriced by huge, huge amounts.  And their sized in a way that gives us the ability to wait a fair amount of time to be proven right or wrong.  I think eventually, the mood of the market will change.  Eventually, the company will be called into account to demonstrate profitability.  I don't know when that will happen.  And the portfolio's positioned properly relative
to the risk and the reward there.
It is just so dangerous to put valuation (as compared to fraud) shorts on in a bull market.
We have had a general rule, "Don't short Tesla" virtually since the IPO, that we've violated on three occasions, fortunately profitable but it is tough to tell if it was worth the risk.

The chart may be signaling an immediate-term reversal but we won't know for sure for a few days:

stock chart
 Chart via Nasdaq

"How to rob a bank, according to economics"

“Lawyers can steal more money with a briefcase than a thousand men with guns and masks."
-Don Vito Corleone
From Quartz:
Bank robberies are great case studies for the economics of crime. They’re premeditated affairs in which a perpetrator has evaluated (consciously or not) the rationality of proceeding. The gains are quantifiable. They also come with a built-in dilemma: every minute a robber stays in the bank increases both the haul and the chance of getting caught.

If you are an economist curious about bank robberies, there is no better laboratory than Italy. From 2000-2006, the last period for which comprehensive public data are available, Italy averaged nearly as many bank robberies each year than the rest of Europe combined. The Italian Banking Association also retains detailed records of every heist, including the duration, amount seized, and if and when an arrest was made.
Economists Giovanni Mastrobuoni and David A. Rivers studied nearly 5,000 bank robberies in Italy between 2005 and 2007. The average heist lasted 4 minutes, 16 seconds and yielded €16,000 (about $19,800 at the exchange rate of the time). Though each additional minute in the bank, on average, leads to about €1,400 more in earnings, the majority of robberies last three minutes or less because the risk of getting caught increases with time.
The researchers also examined the economic factors that affect the decision to rob and how that information might be used to deter future crimes.

All bank robberies begin with an implicit question: Is it worth it to me to rob this particular bank, at this particular time? It’s a complicated equation that takes into account the expected haul, the would-be perpetrator’s risk aversion, and the opportunity costs of prison, among other factors. (How complicated? The economists rendered the decision to rob a bank as the formula: V(t)=[1−Pr(Tp p. We’ll let them explain it.)... 
...MORE 

"Economists React to the May Jobs Report: ‘Isn’t a Disaster’"

From Real Time Economics:
U.S. nonfarm employers added a seasonally adjusted 138,000 jobs in May, below economists’ expectations for an increase of 184,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest level in 16 years.

Here are early reactions from economists and analysts to Friday’s report:

“The U.S. labor market posted another solid month of growth, reinforcing our core view that a tightening labor market is pushing the Fed towards increasing the pace of policy normalization this year. In our estimation, the labor market is tighter than the topline data implies and the central bank is running the risk of falling further behind the curve than it already is.” —Joe Brusuelas, RSM US

“It isn’t perfect—the retail sector continues to shed jobs at an alarming pace, and the overall number of jobs added isn’t much to write home about.” —Svenja Gudell, Zillow

“The unemployment rate fell for all the wrong reasons last month, with a 233,000 decline in the household measure of employment more than offset by a bigger 429,000 slump in the labour force. As a result, the participation rate dropped back to 62.7%, from 62.9%.” —Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics

“The weak job growth number isn’t a disaster because it still keeps up with population growth. But the decline in unemployment and participation plus poor wage growth presents the Fed with a bit of a conundrum. The labor market appears to be getting tighter and tighter, but wages just aren’t responding.” —Paul Diggle, Aberdeen Asset Management
...MORE

"Bond Yields Plunge Through Key Technical Level As Dismal Jobs Data Sinks Stocks, Dollar"

The dollar index did not react at all well to the employment report, approaching the May 23 and 25 lows and getting back to pre-election levels:

From ZeroHedge:
The market's reaction to the dismal jobs data was uniform in its disappointment - while June rate-hike odds remain near 100%, September dipped a little (at just 30%), the dollar dropped, stocks fell, and bond yields tumbled.

'Hard' datas is collapsing again to 13 month lows as soft data catches down..

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/06/01/20170602_10Y3.jpg

...MUCH MORE

"Drop in the US Unemployment Rate Not Sufficient to Mask Disappointing Report"

From Marc to Market:
The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, a new multi-year low, but it is a misleading optic for what is a disappointing report. It is likely not weak enough to put much doubt into expectations for a Fed hike later this month, but it will reinforce the caution in the Beige Book and in recent comments from some Fed officials.

Besides the decline in the unemployment rate, and a further decline in the under-employment rate (U-6) from 8.6% to 8.4%, there is little positive in today's report.

Non-farm payroll growth fell to 138k, nearly 50k below median expectations, which like our own, had been bolstered by the weekly jobs claims, withholding tax, and the ISM. There is not a good month-to-month fit with the ADP report, but the strength of it yesterday, seemed to have precluded today's downside surprise. Adding insult to injury, the back to months saw jobs growth revised 66k lower.

Moreover, the drop in the unemployment rate can largely be explained by the decline in the participation rate from 62.9% to 62.7%. This unwinds this year's improvement in the participation rate, and bring it back to where it finished last year....MORE

Insurance: 2017 Hurricane Season Updates

From Artemis, May 30:

TSR ups hurricane activity forecast, Accuweather warns on landfall potential
Tropical Storm Risk has increased its forecast for 2017 Atlantic Tropical Storm & Hurricane Season activity, joining others in predicting a more active year. Meanwhile Accuweather is warning of landfall risks for the United States coastline and early season storm potential.

Earlier this year, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the climatological research group backed by University College London, Aon Benfield, and Crawford & Company, and other forecasters of Atlantic tropical activity were reducing their forecasts in the expectation that we would see a weak El Niño form by the time of the typical peak of the season, suggesting a slower year for activity.

The El Niño forecasts have moved somewhat and perceptions of the state of sea surface temperatures have also adjusted in recent weeks, meaning that most forecasters are increasing their predictions for 2017 hurricane activity in their latest updates.

Lower hurricane forecasts are positive for reinsurance and ILS interests, although just one major storm would be required for traditional reinsurers to suffer a major impact to their capital adequacy, while ILS and catastrophe bond investors could face significant claims.
TSR had forecast that the 2017 season would see 11 named tropical storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes of category 3 strength of greater.

This has now been increased to 14 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, which is more aligned with the longer term averages and very close to the recent 10 year climate norm.
Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea explained the change in forecast; “The TSR forecast has increased since early April 2017 due to the recent trend towards negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions which favour warmer hurricane main development waters in August-September, and to the decreased likelihood that El Niño conditions will develop by August- September.”

Adding the latest TSR prediction into our tracked forecaster mix gives us an increased Artemis average forecast for the 2017 hurricane season of 12.3 named storms, 5.7 hurricanes and 2.6 major hurricanes.

The forecasters at TSR explained that the changing view of El Nino potential for 2017 means; “There is an increased likelihood for lower trade wind strength, increased vorticity and lower vertical wind shear where hurricanes form; factors which all translate into increased hurricane activity.

However, they warn that both factors, El Nino and warmer sea surface temperatures, contain significant uncertainty, particularly; “Whether El Niño conditions will develop and how warm the tropical North Atlantic will be in August-September.”...MORE
Here is the current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly map from Unisys Weather. Notable points are 1) the equator off South America's bulge: No El Niño  yet and 2) the heating off the U.S. East Coast which, if it remains, could be fuel for storms turning up the eastern seaboard.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Yardeni: "A Memorable Earnings Season"

From Dr. Ed's Blog, May 31:

A Memorable Earnings Season
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTSdcUh_tvtNEipP9flEFxtMqh1RWvPeoU2U-1Lsjevq6tQ-MFz8k4cw1DXZE8erBlNVrBjEveEmt6Pim_NQpuJ4EhFWE7ii3JMUUZU8-AfVxu3WzTnpMWaGn5D-cO1T7Ceh0fQPHNSQE/s1600/fig1.gif
Q1 revenues, earnings, and margins are now available for the S&P 500. Revenues per share dropped 2.7% q/q during Q1. Earnings per share, based on Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (TR) data, fell 1.3% q/q. So in what sense was the Q1 reporting season “memorable,” as stated in the title of today’s commentary?

For starters, the S&P 500 rose to a new record high of 2415.82 on May 26. The S&P 400 and S&P 600 stock price indexes continued to mark time at their recent record highs. Industry analysts remained upbeat about earnings for this year and next year, as reflected by the record highs in the S&P 500/400/600 forward earnings.

This all happened despite a growing realization that President Trump’s economic agenda is likely to be slowed by Washington’s swampy ways. I came to that epiphany on May 18 and adjusted my earnings estimates accordingly, pushing the corporate tax cut into 2018 from 2017. Without a tax cut, I estimate that S&P 500 earnings per share will be $130.00 this year and $136.75 next year. With the tax cut in 2018, my estimate for next year gets raised to $150.00. Let’s have a closer look at the results of the latest reporting season:

(1) Good growth. Of course, the apparent weakness in Q1’s revenues and earnings on a q/q basis is mostly seasonal in nature. The first quarter of the year tends to be the weakest one of the year. On a y/y basis, revenues per share rose 6.9%, the fastest since Q4-2011. Earnings per share rose 14.5% y/y, the best growth since Q3-2011.

I argued that the S&P 500 revenues recession during 2015—when y/y growth rates were down each quarter—was mostly attributable to the plunge in the revenues of the energy sector. The revenue growth rates, which turned slightly positive during Q1-2016, have been increasing since then. It was last summer that I declared the end of the earnings recession. The y/y growth rate of earnings turned positive during Q3-2016 at 4.2%, rose to 5.9% during Q4-2016, and chalked up 14.5% at the start of this year.

(2) High & stable margin. The profit margin of the S&P 500, based on TR data, rebounded sharply from a record low of 2.4% during Q4-2008 back to its previous cyclical peak of 9.6% during Q3-2011. There was lots of growling by the perma-bears that it would soon revert to its mean. Instead, it continued to rise to a new record high of 10.7% during Q3-2016. It has remained around there since then, registering 10.5% during Q1....MORE

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Here Comes Another Eight-Grand-a-Pop, Blood-Transfusion Fountain-of-Youth Start-Up

Now with more hyphens.

From CNBC:

This start-up is offering $8,000 blood transfusions from teens to people who want to fight aging
  • A company called Ambrosia has about 100 customers who are paying $8,000 for a transfusion of young blood.
  • The scientific research is far from definitive.
It might sound like science fiction, or a recent episode of "Silicon Valley," but a start-up called Ambrosia is charging $8,000 for blood transfusions from young people.

About 100 people have signed up to receive an infusion, founder Dr. Jesse Karmazin said Wednesday at the Code Conference.

Anyone over age 35 can become an Ambrosia customer, said Karmazin, but most of the early adopters tend to be of retirement age. He also stressed that it's a range of people, and not just Bay Area technologists, who have signed up.

The donated blood typically comes from teenagers, although anyone under age 25 is eligible. The company buys its supply from blood banks, which also sell blood to pharmaceutical companies. So high-schoolers donating their blood are not aware that it might be used on healthy adults.

Speaking to a roomful of technologists, Karmazin explained that the company does not claim that it can cure aging. Instead, he's hoping to recruit hundreds more people to research whether the transfusions can help fight particular symptoms associated with aging. Traditionally, biological aging hasn't been treated as a disease, which makes it challenging to study.

Karmazin said those who have signed up have seen some positive benefits and haven't reported any negative ones. Blood transfusions come with a variety of risks, including allergic reactions....MORE 
Last year it was a company called Alkahest:
Blood From Human Teens Rejuvenates Elderly Mice
It's probably only fair we did something for the old mice after all their contributions to medical research.

Before that it was Peter Thiel.

And last week it was Silicon Valley, Season 4, Episode 5 "The Blood Boy":
 

Here's the A.V. Club review of the episode: 

Silicon Valley rejects the long-term transfusion of new ideas 
An industry full of leeches

Hey Kids! Add a Ponziesque Twist to Your Start Up! Talk Slick! Smoke Fat Cigars!

Use exclamation marks!

From FT Alphaville:

It’s not just a Ponzi, it’s a ‘smart’ Ponzi
Hat tip to Bloomberg’s Matt Levine for drawing our attention to this paper from a bunch of academics at the University of Cagliari in Italy examining the Ethereum blockchain’s tendency to incubate Ponzi schemes.

 As a whole, they note, Ethereum has managed to generate an unholy amount of Ponzi schemes in its mere 1.5 years of existence. Moreover, the paper doesn’t even account for the recent spell of ICO madness. (Current market cap of the cryptocurrency sector: $85bn, btw.)

The uniqueness of the “smart Ponzi” is its capacity to protect the identity of the initiator but also its ability to persist even after being exposed. Since contracts are unmodifiable and thus unstoppable there is no central authority to terminate the execution of the scheme or force the initiator to refund victims. What’s more, the inability to shut it down means victims can be led to believe the scheme will last forever.

Fascinatingly, the academics add, not all the smart-contract based Ponzis are even public. Many are “hidden” and run by operators who hide the associated addresses — so what we’re seeing may just be the tip of the iceberg.

Here’s the conclusion of the paper, with the most interesting bits highlighted by us:
Blockchains and smart contracts might really be the next “disruptive” technology, as many companies, newspapers, and researchers start to believe. However, they can also offer new opportunities to tax-evaders, criminals, and fraudsters, who can take advantage of their anonymity and decentralization. In this survey we have analysed the impact of Ponzi schemes on Ethereum, the most flexible and widespread platform for smart contracts so far, with a market capitalization that has reached $8 billion....MUCH MORE 

"How To Get Angela Merkel Back For Good"

We last visited the writer, Rebecca Schuman, in April's "What Do Germans Think of the Juicero?".
From The Awl:

Deutschland ohne us.

We thought she’d be weak without us but she’s stronger. Thought she’d be broke without us, but she’s richer. We thought she’d be sad without us; she’s pounding pilsner.
 Yeah, yeah, we get it. She will survive and keep on surviving. 
The German term for dumping someone is jemandem den Laufpass geben (YAY-mon-dum dayn LOUF-poss GAY-bun), and literally means “to give someone his discharge papers,” a.k.a. the veritable dispensation of a giant cosmic jackboot, ejecting one from the army of love. (Don’t blame me for the Germans’ weird metaphors, man.) My fellow Americans, it’s not hard to read the beer foam: Angela has dumped us. She’s publicly changed her relationship status from ES IST KOMPLIZIERT to GO FUCK YOURSELF. She’s blocked us on Snapchat. She’s swiped whatever direction you swipe when you reject someone. She’s given us the Laufpass, and she’s fucking loving every second of it. 
But it’s cool. We’re fine without her. Like, we’re doing really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really great. Better than ever.

But let’s say, just for the sake of a thought experiment — something we now really enjoy doing as, like, a hobby, with all of the time we no longer have to spend on our RELATIONSHIP — we wanted to see if we could get her back. 
The first thing we’d realize, after a few failed attempts with a boombox and the Dolly Parton version of “I Will Always Love You,” is that grand romantic gestures do not have any discernible effect on a people who detest any display of public emotion that is not directly related to Robbie Williams leaving Take That or soccer (more on that in a minute). 
No, everybody knows that if we wanna win back our lover, we gotta get with her friends. We must ingratiate ourselves into, and make ourselves indispensable to, her posse, as my mother still calls a group of people who hang out together because she heard the New Kids on the Block say it in the 1989 Hangin’ Tough “documentary” I owned on VHS and insisted on watching every morning before middle school. In short, we must get good at doing the things that Angela’s friends like, so that they find themselves wanting to hang with us again without even realizing it. Before we know it, we’ve gone from wannabes to marquee members of die Crew, and Angela is simply so accustomed to finding us chilling everywhere she goes that she’ll forget she Heisman’d us in the first place. 
So, here are the things we have to feign expertise in, schnell. 
Soccer. I’m sorry, Fußball. The “real football,” as we will now call it henceforth, is very important to us, and we definitely understand it. The vicissitudes of the Bundesliga are extremely interesting and I for one would like to read about them in the newspaper for a long time, and then discuss them at length with anyone who also would like to discuss them at length. If we can only figure out who the favorite team of all of Angela’s friends is, and then orate over beers until very, very late into the night about what makes that team good at real-football — and thereby what counts as being good at real-football in the first place — then we will be BFFF once more....
...MUCH MORE

When Life Gives You errr... Lemons...

From Alpha Ideas:

http://alphaideas.in/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/DBAZeeBU0AAhMMw.jpg

Parag is the largest private dairy in India. They have a lot of cows.
And the by-product of cows.

Also via Alpha Ideas:
Innovation won’t overcome stagnation (Satyajit Das)

"The Rise of the Amateur Oil Sleuths"

From the Wall Street Journal, May 23:
On a recent Sunday evening, Samir Madani had dinner with his family in suburban Stockholm, did the dishes and put his two children to bed.

Then he opened his laptop and started crunching U.S. oil import data late into the night.
Mr. Madani, a technology executive who trades and researches crude as a hobby, is part of a growing group of oil sleuths who have sprung up to sate the market’s voracious appetite for data and intelligence.

“So much of oil data is hidden and we’re trying to make it accessible,” said Mr. Madani, who runs a free oil data website from his house. “Besides, there’s so much drama in oil.”

Dramatic gyrations in the price of oil in the past three years have boosted demand for such services, intensifying competition in a market that for years had been dominated by governments, oil companies and a handful of big data providers.

Oil Sleuths
Oil data gatherers use a variety of technologies to match the market’s voracious appetite for statistics and scraps of intelligence.
https://online.wsj.com/media/oilsleuths-image1.png
Satellites
• Companies use satellites to monitor oil tankers as they criss-cross the seas
• That helps them reveal the location of Iranian oil tankers or how congested major oil ports
• Satellites which can deliver more frequent imagery than traditional satellites  
https://online.wsj.com/media/oilsleuths-image2.png
Infrared cameras
• Louisville, Ky.-based Genscape uses infrared cameras to measure the level of stored oil
• Those cameras are mounted on helicopters that fly around tanks around the world
• The market-moving data is usually released a few days ahead of government statistics
 
 https://online.wsj.com/media/oilsleuths-image3.png
Computer algorithms
• Oil data firms use computer programs to analyze reams of data to come up with forecasts for key oil numbers
• Input sources include: satellite imagery, customs databases, shipping records, social news
• The data is then distributed via online portals featuring charts and live tanker tracking maps
Source: the companies; staff reports
The new entrants include both amateurs armed with an internet connection and a Twitter account, and professional services using shoebox-sized satellites and sophisticated computer models. They are crunching data on everything from Middle Eastern exports to U.S. drilling. Such statistics often move oil prices as they predict government releases on crude inventories or cover data black spots such as Chinese stockpiles and Iranian tanker movements.

With the proliferation of data sources, the oil industry is catching up to other sectors. Retail and commodity investors, for instance, have long had access to a wealth of sophisticated information on things like store traffic and crop yields. But the free-fall in the price of oil—from more than $100 a barrel in 2014 to around $50 today—created new trading opportunities for hedge funds and day traders.

When Doug King started the Merchant Commodity hedge fund at RCMA Asset Management in 2004, there were only a few outside data sources, he says. “We used to do our own data crunching by hand, it was a simpler time,” said Mr. King, who now subscribes to several data services.
“The oil data industry has exploded,” said Mr. King, chief investment officer at RCMA.
At least three new oil data services companies are launching this year.

One is Kayrros, a Paris-based startup due to open for business in June. It aims to use computer algorithms to analyze satellite imagery, financial data and social news to come up with detailed estimates and forecasts for key oil numbers, says Antoine Halff, a founding partner of the firm.

“A decade or more ago, it used to be people with binoculars sitting in a hotel watching tankers move in and out of the port,” said Mr. Halff, who is also a senior researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

A popular service such firms offer is to track where oil tankers are going. That gives, for instance, insight into how much crude that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are exporting after their deal last year to limit supply....MUCH MORE

Questions America Wants Answered: Ahead of the General Election, Who Lives In Britain's most Adulterous Constituency?

From City AM with no further comment:
Hot new election data has revealed political information to arouse public interest – which constituencies are most adulterous.

The steamy figures show that the capital is home to the political seat with the most affairs.

Put together by Illicitencounters.com a dating website for married people, The Election Infidelity Index says it is Westminster North, currently held by Labour, with the most unfaithful voting base.

London is also home to the most faithful constituency overall - the south west London seat of Conservative seat of Kingston and Surbiton....MORE

News You Can Booze: Drinking Tequila Linked to Weight Loss

From the Independent:
If you want to slim down, nutritionists and fitness experts will tell you to cut down on alcohol. It’s highly calorific and fattening.

But many of us are both health-conscious and like a drink, and the classic vodka-lime-soda is just, well, a bit boring.

Good news, then, that a study has found a link between tequila and weight loss.
According to research presented at a meeting of the American Chemical Society, everyone’s favourite party spirit can help lower your blood sugar too.

Specifically, it’s the sugars that naturally occur in the agave plant from which tequila is made.
These sugars are called agavins - which is not the same as agave syrup - and are non-digestible which means they act as a dietary fibre and won’t raise your blood sugar.

“Agavins are not expensive and they have no known side effects, except for those few people who cannot tolerate them,” said Dr Mercedes G. López.

She added that agavins, like other fructans, are the best sugars to help support growth of healthful microbes in the mouth and intestines....MORE
Recently public Becle SA de CV (Jose Cuervo® Live For Today - Tomorrow Is Overrated - cuervo.com) was unmoved by the news. IPO 34 pesos Feb. 9, 32.34 at yesterday's close, down 1.43% on the day.

Currencies: "Greenback Steadies at Lower Levels, Sterling Struggles"

From Marc to Market:
The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies. It is consolidating yesterday's losses more than staging much of a recovery. Even sterling, where a YouGov poll has the Tory lead at three percentage points, down from seven previously, is above yesterday's lows.

On the other hand, even strong data from Japan did not drive the yen higher. The dollar is holding in yesterday's range against the yen. If it does not rise through yesterday's high (~JPY111.25), it will be the sixth consecutive session of lower highs, since poking briefly though above JPY112 in the middle of last week.

Japan reported stronger than expected capital expenditures that point to the upside risks to the Q1 GDP estimate of 1.2%. Capex rose 4.5% year-over-year rather than 4% as expected. Separately, it was reported that corporate profits surged 26.6% on the back of a 5.6% increase in sales.

Even if the yen did not respond positively, Japanese stocks did. After rallying 2.4% in May, the Topix rose 1.1% today to start June. The Topix has advanced in seven of the past eight months and nine of the past eleven. Stocks in the region rose as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3%. It was up nearly 2.6% last month. It has risen even month this year.

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI slipped below the 50 boom/bust level for the first time in nearly a year. The headline fell to 49.6 from 50.3. Output, however, held just above 50 at 50.2, down from 51.0 This differs from the official measure in a smaller sample and a focus on smaller businesses. Still, the sense the economy has lost some momentum after Q1 is not easily shaken, and the fact that input and output prices well are consistent with the pause in the reflation story of the start of the year.

The yuan's strength has continued today, into a fourth session. It is the strongest four-day run in more than a decade. The yuan had been trading in a narrow range in a low vol market, until this week. Following Moody's downgrade, which simply matched what Fitch had already done, many expected continued steady trading against the softening dollar. While the move began as a liquidity squeeze in the offshore market, the onshore yuan took charge today. It rose 0.17%, while the offshore yuan has softened by nearly the same amount. The strengthening yuan did little for equities, where the Shanghai Composite slipped almost 0.5%, and the Shenzhen Composite dropped 1.9%....MORE

Ag Futures: "Grains open June on firm note, as global weather fears rise"




Last Chg
Corn 373-4+1-4
Soybeans 918-2+2-2
Wheat 430-4+1-2

From Agrimoney:
Be careful what you wish for.
That is, China has been on a mission to cut its corn inventories, built up by a now-reformed subsidy scheme which offered generous guaranteed prices to growers.
It is now using financial enticements and auctions to encourage consumption of the grain, besides moves to cut corn sowings and output.
And the country, the second-ranked corn producer and user, looks to be getting a bit of unwanted help on the latter score from Mother Nature, in the form of unduly dry weather which is gaining increasing attention among global investors.
'Rain is badly needed'
"Northern China's dry and warm weather problem will last at least another 10 days, creating additional problems," said Terry Reilly at Chicago broker Futures International.
"Some relief was seen during the past week but the rain amounts were not great enough to replenish subsoil moisture levels.
"Keep in mind this is more a problem for grains than oilseeds as corn plantings are well under way in northern China and oilseed plantings tend to start around now.
"Either way, rain is badly needed for all crops."
'May become critical'
World Weather flagged the incidence of ENSO conditions which are towards the El Nino end of the spectrum, if viewed as neutral overall.
"El Nino years tend to leave the north China Plain drier biased," the weather service said.
While 2017 "is not considered to be an El Nino year… the longer seasonal rains are delayed the higher the potential impact might be on developing summer crops"....
...MORE